Multi-centennial ocean biogeochemical responses to extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

11 November 2026

Using long-term MIROC-ES2L simulations under extended Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios to 2500, the authors show that ocean–atmosphere pCO₂ disequilibrium exhibits strong scenario dependence. Low emissions lead to near equilibrium by 2100, whereas high emissions drive expanding oceanic CO₂ supersaturation and declining buffering capacity. Marine ecosystem stress persists for centuries, reflecting the ocean's long memory and limited reversibility.

Please also read the press release by University of Toyama.

Contact: Hidetaka Kobayashi (hidekoba@sci.u-toyama.ac.jp)