Linking an economic model for European agriculture with a mechanistic model to estimate nitrogen and carbon losses from arable soils in Europe A. Leip1, G. Marchi1, R. Koeble1,*, M. Kempen2, W. Britz1,2, and C. Li3 1European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy 2University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics, Bonn, Germany 3Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA *now at: Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, Department of Technology Assessment and Environment, Stuttgart, Germany
Abstract. A comprehensive assessment of policy impact on greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions from agricultural soils requires careful consideration of both
socio-economic aspects and the environmental heterogeneity of the landscape.
We developed a modelling framework that links the large-scale economic model
for agriculture CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact
assessment) with the biogeochemistry model DNDC (DeNitrification
DeComposition) to simulate GHG fluxes, carbon stock changes and the nitrogen
budget of agricultural soils in Europe. The framework allows the ex-ante simulation
of agricultural or agri-environmental policy impacts on a wide range of
environmental problems such as climate change (GHG emissions), air pollution
and groundwater pollution. Those environmental impacts can be analyzed in
the context of economic and social indicators as calculated by the economic
model. The methodology consists of four steps: (i) definition of appropriate
calculation units that can be considered as homogeneous in terms of economic
behaviour and environmental response; (ii) downscaling of regional
agricultural statistics and farm management information from a CAPRI
simulation run into the spatial calculation units; (iii) designing
environmental model scenarios and model runs; and finally (iv) aggregating
results for interpretation. We show the first results of the nitrogen budget
in croplands in fourteen countries of the European Union and discuss
possibilities to improve the detailed assessment of nitrogen and carbon
fluxes from European arable soils.
Citation: Leip, A., Marchi, G., Koeble, R., Kempen, M., Britz, W., and Li, C.: Linking an economic model for European agriculture with a mechanistic model to estimate nitrogen and carbon losses from arable soils in Europe, Biogeosciences, 5, 73-94, doi:10.5194/bg-5-73-2008, 2008.