Articles | Volume 17, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2681-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2681-2020
Research article
 | 
18 May 2020
Research article |  | 18 May 2020

Sensitivity of 21st century simulated ecosystem indicators to model parameters, prescribed climate drivers, RCP scenarios and forest management actions for two Finnish boreal forest sites

Jarmo Mäkelä, Francesco Minunno, Tuula Aalto, Annikki Mäkelä, Tiina Markkanen, and Mikko Peltoniemi

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Cited articles

Aalto, J., Pirinen, P., Heikkinen, J., and Venäläinen, A.: Spatial interpolation of monthly climate data for Finland: comparing the performance of kriging and generalized additive models, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 112, 99–111, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0716-9, 2013. a
Augustynczik, A., Hartig, F., Minunno, F., Kahle, H.-P., Diaconu, D., Hanewinkel, M., and Yousefpour, R.: Productivity of Fagus sylvatica under climate change – A Bayesian analysis of risk and uncertainty using the model 3-PG, Forest Ecol. Manag., 401, 192–206, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2017.06.061., 2017. a
Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., Osborn, T. J., Melvin, T. M., and Caesar, J.: Thermal growing season and timing of biospheric carbon uptake across the Northern Hemisphere, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 26, GB4015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GB004312, 2012. a
Dye, D. G. and Tucker, C. J.: Seasonality and trends of snow-cover, vegetation index, and temperature in northern Eurasia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016384, 2003. a
Eyring, V., Cox, P. M., Flato, G. M., Gleckler, P. J., Abramowitz, G., Caldwell, P., Collins, W. D., Gier, B. K., Hall, A. D., Hoffman, F. M., Hurtt, G. C., Jahn, A., Jones, C. D., Klein, S. A., Krasting, J. P., Kwiatkowski, L., Lorenz, R., Maloney, E., Meehl, G. A., Pendergrass, A. G., Pincus, R., Ruane, A. C., Russell, J. L., Sanderson, B. M., Santer, B. D., Sherwood, S. C., Simpson, I. R., Stouffer, R. J., and Williamson, M. S.: Taking climate model evaluation to the next level, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 102–110, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y, 2019. a
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Short summary
We assess the relative magnitude of uncertainty sources on ecosystem indicators of the 21st century climate change on two boreal forest sites. In addition to RCP and climate model uncertainties, we included the overlooked model parameter uncertainty and management actions in our analysis. Management was the dominant uncertainty factor for the more verdant southern site, followed by RCP, climate and parameter uncertainties. The uncertainties were estimated with canonical correlation analysis.
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