Journal cover Journal topic
Biogeosciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic
Volume 14, issue 18
Biogeosciences, 14, 4355–4374, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Biogeosciences, 14, 4355–4374, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 28 Sep 2017

Research article | 28 Sep 2017

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario

Istem Fer1,2,3, Britta Tietjen4,5, Florian Jeltsch1,5, and Christian Wolff6,7 Istem Fer et al.
  • 1Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Am Mühlenberg 3, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
  • 2DFG Graduate School, Shaping the Earth's Surface in a Variable Environment, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
  • 3Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 685 Commonwealth Ave, MA 02215, USA
  • 4Biodiversity and Ecological Modelling, Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Altensteinstr. 6, 14195 Berlin, Germany
  • 5Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195 Berlin, Germany
  • 6Climate Geochemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitner Weg 1, 55128 Mainz, Germany
  • 7International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA

Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature–eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.

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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been identified as one of the main drivers for the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall. But we know little about its direct impact on vegetation and how it might change in the future. In this study, we quantified this relationship and predict its future under certain climate change scenarios. Results suggest that we need to consider an increase in future ENSO intensity to cover the full range of potential changes in vegetation responses.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been identified as one of the main drivers for the...
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