Articles | Volume 12, issue 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5715-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5715-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Oct 2015
Research article |
| 08 Oct 2015
A latitudinally banded phytoplankton response to 21st century climate change in the Southern Ocean across the CMIP5 model suite
School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
A. Cabré
Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
I. Marinov
Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
Related authors
Shirley W. Leung, Thomas Weber, Jacob A. Cram, and Curtis Deutsch
Biogeosciences, 18, 229–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-229-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A global model is constrained with empirical relationships to quantify how shifts in sinking-particle sizes modulate particulate organic carbon export production changes in a warming ocean. Including the effect of dynamic particle sizes on remineralization reduces the magnitude of predicted 100-year changes in export production by ~14 %. Projections of future export could thus be improved by considering dynamic phytoplankton and particle-size-dependent remineralization depths.
Shirley W. Leung, Thomas Weber, Jacob A. Cram, and Curtis Deutsch
Biogeosciences, 18, 229–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-229-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A global model is constrained with empirical relationships to quantify how shifts in sinking-particle sizes modulate particulate organic carbon export production changes in a warming ocean. Including the effect of dynamic particle sizes on remineralization reduces the magnitude of predicted 100-year changes in export production by ~14 %. Projections of future export could thus be improved by considering dynamic phytoplankton and particle-size-dependent remineralization depths.
Tihomir S. Kostadinov, Svetlana Milutinović, Irina Marinov, and Anna Cabré
Ocean Sci., 12, 561–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-561-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-561-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Recent advances in ocean color remote sensing have allowed the quantification of the particle size distribution (and thus volume) of suspended particles in surface waters, using their backscattering signature. Here, we leverage these developments and use volume-to-carbon allometric relationships to quantify phytoplankton carbon globally using SeaWiFS ocean color data. Phytoplankton carbon concentrations are partitioned among three size classes: picoplankton, nanoplankton and microplankton.
A. Cabré, I. Marinov, R. Bernardello, and D. Bianchi
Biogeosciences, 12, 5429–5454, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5429-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5429-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze simulations of the Pacific Ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) from 11 Earth system model contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, focusing on the mean state, climate change projections, and interannual variability. We analyse biases with respect to observations and consistency of results across simulations.
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Modelling, Aquatic
Including filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton in a global marine biogeochemical model: model–data comparison and impact on the ocean carbon cycle
Riverine impact on future projections of marine primary production and carbon uptake
Methane emissions from Arctic landscapes during 2000–2015: An analysis with land and lake biogeochemistry models
Subsurface oxygen maximum in oligotrophic marine ecosystems: mapping the interaction between physical and biogeochemical processes
Quantifying biological carbon pump pathways with a data-constrained mechanistic model ensemble approach
Assessing the spatial and temporal variability of methylmercury biogeochemistry and bioaccumulation in the Mediterranean Sea with a coupled 3D model
Hydrodynamic and biochemical impacts on the development of hypoxia in the Louisiana–Texas shelf – Part 2: statistical modeling and hypoxia prediction
Modelling the effects of benthic fauna on carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in the Baltic Sea
Improved prediction of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) distributions in the northeast subarctic Pacific using machine-learning algorithms
Nutrient transport and transformation in macrotidal estuaries of the French Atlantic coast: a modeling approach using the Carbon-Generic Estuarine Model
A modelling study of temporal and spatial pCO2 variability on the biologically active and temperature-dominated Scotian Shelf
Modeling the marine chromium cycle: new constraints on global-scale processes
New insights into large-scale trends of apparent organic matter reactivity in marine sediments and patterns of benthic carbon transformation
Evaluation of ocean dimethylsulfide concentration and emission in CMIP6 models
Zooplankton mortality effects on the plankton community of the northern Humboldt Current System: sensitivity of a regional biogeochemical model
Multi-compartment kinetic–allometric (MCKA) model of radionuclide bioaccumulation in marine fish
Impact of bottom trawling on sediment biogeochemistry: a modelling approach
Cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic Sea: a review of models and facts
Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble
Modeling silicate–nitrate–ammonium co-limitation of algal growth and the importance of bacterial remineralization based on an experimental Arctic coastal spring bloom culture study
Role of jellyfish in the plankton ecosystem revealed using a global ocean biogeochemical model
Extreme event waves in marine ecosystems: an application to Mediterranean Sea surface chlorophyll
Use of optical absorption indices to assess seasonal variability of dissolved organic matter in Amazon floodplain lakes
The role of sediment-induced light attenuation on primary production during Hurricane Gustav (2008)
Quantifying spatiotemporal variability in zooplankton dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico with a physical–biogeochemical model
One size fits all? Calibrating an ocean biogeochemistry model for different circulations
Assessing the temporal scale of deep-sea mining impacts on sediment biogeochemistry
Seasonal patterns of surface inorganic carbon system variables in the Gulf of Mexico inferred from a regional high-resolution ocean biogeochemical model
Oxygen dynamics and evaluation of the single-station diel oxygen model across contrasting geologies
Oceanic CO2 outgassing and biological production hotspots induced by pre-industrial river loads of nutrients and carbon in a global modeling approach
Global trends in marine nitrate N isotopes from observations and a neural network-based climatology
Merging bio-optical data from Biogeochemical-Argo floats and models in marine biogeochemistry
Model constraints on the anthropogenic carbon budget of the Arctic Ocean
Modeling oceanic nitrate and nitrite concentrations and isotopes using a 3-D inverse N cycle model
Biogeochemical response of the Mediterranean Sea to the transient SRES-A2 climate change scenario
Modelling the biogeochemical effects of heterotrophic and autotrophic N2 fixation in the Gulf of Aqaba (Israel), Red Sea
A perturbed biogeochemistry model ensemble evaluated against in situ and satellite observations
Diazotrophy as the main driver of the oligotrophy gradient in the western tropical South Pacific Ocean: results from a one-dimensional biogeochemical–physical coupled model
Causes of simulated long-term changes in phytoplankton biomass in the Baltic proper: a wavelet analysis
Modelling N2 fixation related to Trichodesmium sp.: driving processes and impacts on primary production in the tropical Pacific Ocean
Long-term response of oceanic carbon uptake to global warming via physical and biological pumps
Seasonal patterns in phytoplankton biomass across the northern and deep Gulf of Mexico: a numerical model study
Sea-surface dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration from satellite data at global and regional scales
A new look at the multi-G model for organic carbon degradation in surface marine sediments for coupled benthic–pelagic simulations of the global ocean
Groundwater data improve modelling of headwater stream CO2 outgassing with a stable DIC isotope approach
The influence of the ocean circulation state on ocean carbon storage and CO2 drawdown potential in an Earth system model
Modelling potential production of macroalgae farms in UK and Dutch coastal waters
Assimilating bio-optical glider data during a phytoplankton bloom in the southern Ross Sea
Primary production sensitivity to phytoplankton light attenuation parameter increases with transient forcing
On the long-range offshore transport of organic carbon from the Canary Upwelling System to the open North Atlantic
Corentin Clerc, Laurent Bopp, Fabio Benedetti, Meike Vogt, and Olivier Aumont
Biogeosciences, 20, 869–895, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-869-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gelatinous zooplankton play a key role in the ocean carbon cycle. In particular, pelagic tunicates, which feed on a wide size range of prey, produce rapidly sinking detritus. Thus, they efficiently transfer carbon from the surface to the depths. Consequently, we added these organisms to a marine biogeochemical model (PISCES-v2) and evaluated their impact on the global carbon cycle. We found that they contribute significantly to carbon export and that this contribution increases with depth.
Shuang Gao, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Ingo Bethke, Jens Hartmann, Emilio Mayorga, and Christoph Heinze
Biogeosciences, 20, 93–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impact of riverine nutrients and carbon (C) on projected marine primary production (PP) and C uptake using a fully coupled Earth system model. Riverine inputs alleviate nutrient limitation and thus lessen the projected PP decline by up to 0.7 Pg C yr−1 globally. The effect of increased riverine C may be larger than the effect of nutrient inputs in the future on the projected ocean C uptake, while in the historical period increased nutrient inputs are considered the largest driver.
Xiangyu Liu and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-220, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-220, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
We are among the first to quantify methane emissions from wetlands and lakes in the pan-Arctic. The total CH4 emissions are 35.81 Tg CH4 yr⁻¹ during 2000–2015, of which wetlands and lakes were 21.38 Tg yr⁻¹ and 14.45 Tg yr⁻¹, respectively. By using 2 non-overlap area change datasets combined with land and lake models, our simulation avoids some small lakes being counted twice as both lake and wetland, and narrows the gap between two different methods that used to quantify regional CH4 emission.
Valeria Di Biagio, Stefano Salon, Laura Feudale, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Biogeosciences, 19, 5553–5574, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of dissolved oxygen in the ocean is the result of interacting physical and biological processes. Oxygen vertical profiles show a subsurface maximum in a large part of the ocean. We used a numerical model to map this subsurface maximum in the Mediterranean Sea and to link local differences in its properties to the driving processes. This emerging feature can help the marine ecosystem functioning to be better understood, also under the impacts of climate change.
Michael R. Stukel, Moira Décima, and Michael R. Landry
Biogeosciences, 19, 3595–3624, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3595-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The biological carbon pump (BCP) transports carbon into the deep ocean, leading to long-term marine carbon sequestration. It is driven by many physical, chemical, and ecological processes. We developed a model of the BCP constrained using data from 11 cruises in 4 different ocean regions. Our results show that sinking particles and vertical mixing are more important than transport mediated by vertically migrating zooplankton. They also highlight the uncertainty in current estimates of the BCP.
Ginevra Rosati, Donata Canu, Paolo Lazzari, and Cosimo Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 19, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3663-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Methylmercury (MeHg) is produced and bioaccumulated in marine food webs, posing concerns for human exposure through seafood consumption. We modeled and analyzed the fate of MeHg in the lower food web of the Mediterranean Sea. The modeled spatial–temporal distribution of plankton bioaccumulation differs from the distribution of MeHg in surface water. We also show that MeHg exposure concentrations in temperate waters can be lowered by winter convection, which is declining due to climate change.
Yanda Ou, Bin Li, and Z. George Xue
Biogeosciences, 19, 3575–3593, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3575-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past decades, the Louisiana–Texas shelf has been suffering recurring hypoxia (dissolved oxygen < 2 mg L−1). We developed a novel prediction model using state-of-the-art statistical techniques based on physical and biogeochemical data provided by a numerical model. The model can capture both the magnitude and onset of the annual hypoxia events. This study also demonstrates that it is possible to use a global model forecast to predict regional ocean water quality.
Eva Ehrnsten, Oleg Pavlovitch Savchuk, and Bo Gustav Gustafsson
Biogeosciences, 19, 3337–3367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3337-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3337-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the effects of benthic fauna, animals living on or in the seafloor, on the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus using a model of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By eating and excreting, the animals transform a large part of organic matter sinking to the seafloor into inorganic forms, which fuel plankton blooms. Simultaneously, when they move around (bioturbate), phosphorus is bound in the sediments. This reduces nitrogen-fixing plankton blooms and oxygen depletion.
Brandon J. McNabb and Philippe D. Tortell
Biogeosciences, 19, 1705–1721, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1705-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1705-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The trace gas dimethyl sulfide (DMS) plays an important role in the ocean sulfur cycle and can also influence Earth’s climate. Our study used two statistical methods to predict surface ocean concentrations and rates of sea–air exchange of DMS in the northeast subarctic Pacific. Our results show improved predictive power over previous approaches and suggest that nutrient availability, light-dependent processes, and physical mixing may be important controls on DMS in this region.
Xi Wei, Josette Garnier, Vincent Thieu, Paul Passy, Romain Le Gendre, Gilles Billen, Maia Akopian, and Goulven Gildas Laruelle
Biogeosciences, 19, 931–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-931-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Estuaries are key reactive ecosystems along the land–ocean aquatic continuum and are often strongly impacted by anthropogenic activities. We calculated nutrient in and out fluxes by using a 1-D transient model for seven estuaries along the French Atlantic coast. Among these, large estuaries with high residence times showed higher retention rates than medium and small ones. All reveal coastal eutrophication due to the excess of diffused nitrogen from intensive agricultural river basins.
Krysten Rutherford, Katja Fennel, Dariia Atamanchuk, Douglas Wallace, and Helmuth Thomas
Biogeosciences, 18, 6271–6286, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6271-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6271-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a regional model of the northwestern North Atlantic shelves in combination with a surface water time series and repeat transect observations, we investigate surface CO2 variability on the Scotian Shelf. The study highlights a strong seasonal cycle in shelf-wide pCO2 and spatial variability throughout the summer months driven by physical events. The simulated net flux of CO2 on the Scotian Shelf is out of the ocean, deviating from the global air–sea CO2 flux trend in continental shelves.
Frerk Pöppelmeier, David J. Janssen, Samuel L. Jaccard, and Thomas F. Stocker
Biogeosciences, 18, 5447–5463, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chromium (Cr) is a redox-sensitive element that holds promise as a tracer of ocean oxygenation and biological activity. We here implemented the oxidation states Cr(III) and Cr(VI) in the Bern3D model to investigate the processes that shape the global Cr distribution. We find a Cr ocean residence time of 5–8 kyr and that the benthic source dominates the tracer budget. Further, regional model–data mismatches suggest strong Cr removal in oxygen minimum zones and a spatially variable benthic source.
Felipe S. Freitas, Philip A. Pika, Sabine Kasten, Bo B. Jørgensen, Jens Rassmann, Christophe Rabouille, Shaun Thomas, Henrik Sass, Richard D. Pancost, and Sandra Arndt
Biogeosciences, 18, 4651–4679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4651-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4651-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
It remains challenging to fully understand what controls carbon burial in marine sediments globally. Thus, we use a model–data approach to identify patterns of organic matter reactivity at the seafloor across distinct environmental conditions. Our findings support the notion that organic matter reactivity is a dynamic ecosystem property and strongly influences biogeochemical cycling and exchange. Our results are essential to improve predictions of future changes in carbon cycling and climate.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Mariana Hill Cruz, Iris Kriest, Yonss Saranga José, Rainer Kiko, Helena Hauss, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 18, 2891–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2891-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a regional biogeochemical model of the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean to implicitly simulate the effect that fluctuations in populations of small pelagic fish, such as anchovy and sardine, may have on the biogeochemistry of the northern Humboldt Current System. To do so, we vary the zooplankton mortality in the model, under the assumption that these fishes eat zooplankton. We also evaluate the model for the first time against mesozooplankton observations.
Roman Bezhenar, Kyeong Ok Kim, Vladimir Maderich, Govert de With, and Kyung Tae Jung
Biogeosciences, 18, 2591–2607, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2591-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2591-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach to predicting the accumulation of radionuclides in fish was developed by taking into account heterogeneity of distribution of contamination in the organism and dependence of metabolic process rates on the fish mass. Predicted concentrations of radionuclides in fish agreed well with the laboratory and field measurements. The model with the defined generic parameters could be used in marine environments without local calibration, which is important for emergency decision support.
Emil De Borger, Justin Tiano, Ulrike Braeckman, Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp, and Karline Soetaert
Biogeosciences, 18, 2539–2557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2539-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Bottom trawling alters benthic mineralization: the recycling of organic material (OM) to free nutrients. To better understand how this occurs, trawling events were added to a model of seafloor OM recycling. Results show that bottom trawling reduces OM and free nutrients in sediments through direct removal thereof and of fauna which transport OM to deeper sediment layers protected from fishing. Our results support temporospatial trawl restrictions to allow key sediment functions to recover.
Britta Munkes, Ulrike Löptien, and Heiner Dietze
Biogeosciences, 18, 2347–2378, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2347-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2347-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Cyanobacteria blooms can strongly aggravate eutrophication problems of water bodies. Their controls are, however, not comprehensively understood, which impedes effective management and protection plans. Here we review the current understanding of cyanobacteria blooms. Juxtaposition of respective field and laboratory studies with state-of-the-art mathematical models reveals substantial uncertainty associated with nutrient demands, grazing, and death of cyanobacteria.
Jens Terhaar, Olivier Torres, Timothée Bourgeois, and Lester Kwiatkowski
Biogeosciences, 18, 2221–2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The uptake of carbon, emitted as a result of human activities, results in ocean acidification. We analyse 21st-century projections of acidification in the Arctic Ocean, a region of particular vulnerability, using the latest generation of Earth system models. In this new generation of models there is a large decrease in the uncertainty associated with projections of Arctic Ocean acidification, with freshening playing a greater role in driving acidification than previously simulated.
Tobias R. Vonnahme, Martial Leroy, Silke Thoms, Dick van Oevelen, H. Rodger Harvey, Svein Kristiansen, Rolf Gradinger, Ulrike Dietrich, and Christoph Völker
Biogeosciences, 18, 1719–1747, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1719-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Diatoms are crucial for Arctic coastal spring blooms, and their growth is controlled by nutrients and light. At the end of the bloom, inorganic nitrogen or silicon can be limiting, but nitrogen can be regenerated by bacteria, extending the algal growth phase. Modeling these multi-nutrient dynamics and the role of bacteria is challenging yet crucial for accurate modeling. We recreated spring bloom dynamics in a cultivation experiment and developed a representative dynamic model.
Rebecca M. Wright, Corinne Le Quéré, Erik Buitenhuis, Sophie Pitois, and Mark J. Gibbons
Biogeosciences, 18, 1291–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1291-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1291-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Jellyfish have been included in a global ocean biogeochemical model for the first time. The global mean jellyfish biomass in the model is within the observational range. Jellyfish are found to play an important role in the plankton ecosystem, influencing community structure, spatiotemporal dynamics and biomass. The model raises questions about the sensitivity of the zooplankton community to jellyfish mortality and the interactions between macrozooplankton and jellyfish.
Valeria Di Biagio, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, and Cosimo Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 17, 5967–5988, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5967-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Events that influence the functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems are of interest in relation to a changing climate. We propose a method to identify and characterise
wavesof extreme events affecting marine ecosystems for multi-week periods over wide areas. Our method can be applied to suitable ecosystem variables and has been used to describe different kinds of extreme event waves of phytoplankton chlorophyll in the Mediterranean Sea, by analysing the output from a high-resolution model.
Maria Paula da Silva, Lino A. Sander de Carvalho, Evlyn Novo, Daniel S. F. Jorge, and Claudio C. F. Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 17, 5355–5364, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5355-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyze the seasonal changes in the dissolved organic matter (DOM) quality (based on its optical properties) in four Amazon floodplain lakes. DOM plays a fundamental role in surface water chemistry, controlling metal bioavailability and mobility, and nutrient cycling. The model proposed in our paper highlights the potential to study DOM quality at a wider spatial scale, which may help to better understand the persistence and fate of DOM in the ecosystem.
Zhengchen Zang, Z. George Xue, Kehui Xu, Samuel J. Bentley, Qin Chen, Eurico J. D'Sa, Le Zhang, and Yanda Ou
Biogeosciences, 17, 5043–5055, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5043-2020, 2020
Taylor A. Shropshire, Steven L. Morey, Eric P. Chassignet, Alexandra Bozec, Victoria J. Coles, Michael R. Landry, Rasmus Swalethorp, Glenn Zapfe, and Michael R. Stukel
Biogeosciences, 17, 3385–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3385-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3385-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Zooplankton are the smallest animals in the ocean and important food for fish. Despite their importance, zooplankton have been relatively undersampled. To better understand the zooplankton community in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), we developed a model to simulate their dynamics. We found that heterotrophic protists are important for supporting mesozooplankton, which are the primary prey of larval fish. The model developed in this study has the potential to improve fisheries management in the GoM.
Iris Kriest, Paul Kähler, Wolfgang Koeve, Karin Kvale, Volkmar Sauerland, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 17, 3057–3082, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3057-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3057-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Constants of global biogeochemical ocean models are often tuned
by handto match observations of nutrients or oxygen. We investigate the effect of this tuning by optimising six constants of a global biogeochemical model, simulated in five different offline circulations. Optimal values for three constants adjust to distinct features of the circulation applied and can afterwards be swapped among the circulations, without losing too much of the model's fit to observed quantities.
Laura Haffert, Matthias Haeckel, Henko de Stigter, and Felix Janssen
Biogeosciences, 17, 2767–2789, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2767-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2767-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Deep-sea mining for polymetallic nodules is expected to have severe environmental impacts. Through prognostic modelling, this study aims to provide a holistic assessment of the biogeochemical recovery after a disturbance event. It was found that the recovery strongly depends on the impact type; e.g. complete removal of the surface sediment reduces seafloor nutrient fluxes over centuries.
Fabian A. Gomez, Rik Wanninkhof, Leticia Barbero, Sang-Ki Lee, and Frank J. Hernandez Jr.
Biogeosciences, 17, 1685–1700, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1685-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1685-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical model to infer annual changes of surface carbon chemistry in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The main seasonality drivers of partial pressure of carbon dioxide and aragonite saturation state from the model are temperature and river runoff. The GoM basin is a carbon sink in winter–spring and carbon source in summer–fall, but uptake prevails near the Mississippi Delta year-round due to high biological production. Our model results show good correspondence with observational studies.
Simon J. Parker
Biogeosciences, 17, 305–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-305-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-305-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Dissolved oxygen (DO) models typically assume constant ecosystem respiration over the course of a single day. Using a data-driven approach, this research examines this assumption in four streams across two (hydro-)geological types (Chalk and Greensand). Despite hydrogeological equivalence in terms of baseflow index for each hydrogeological pairing, model suitability differed within, rather than across, geology types. This corresponded with associated differences in timings of DO minima.
Fabrice Lacroix, Tatiana Ilyina, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 17, 55–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-55-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions of rivers to the oceanic cycling of carbon have been poorly represented in global models until now. Here, we assess the long–term implications of preindustrial riverine loads in the ocean in a novel framework which estimates the loads through a hierarchy of weathering and land–ocean export models. We investigate their impacts for the oceanic biological production and air–sea carbon flux. Finally, we assess the potential incorporation of the framework in an Earth system model.
Patrick A. Rafter, Aaron Bagnell, Dario Marconi, and Timothy DeVries
Biogeosciences, 16, 2617–2633, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2617-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2617-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The N isotopic composition of nitrate (
nitrate δ15N) is a useful tracer of ocean N cycling and many other ocean processes. Here, we use a global compilation of marine nitrate δ15N as an input, training, and validating dataset for an artificial neural network (a.k.a.,
machine learning) and examine basin-scale trends in marine nitrate δ15N from the surface to the seafloor.
Elena Terzić, Paolo Lazzari, Emanuele Organelli, Cosimo Solidoro, Stefano Salon, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, and Pascal Conan
Biogeosciences, 16, 2527–2542, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2527-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2527-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Measuring ecosystem properties in the ocean is a hard business. Recent availability of data from Biogeochemical-Argo floats can help make this task easier. Numerical models can integrate these new data in a coherent picture and can be used to investigate the functioning of ecosystem processes. Our new approach merges experimental information and model capabilities to quantitatively demonstrate the importance of light and water vertical mixing for algae dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea.
Jens Terhaar, James C. Orr, Marion Gehlen, Christian Ethé, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 16, 2343–2367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2343-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2343-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A budget of anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean, the main driver of open-ocean acidification, was constructed for the first time using a high-resolution ocean model. The budget reveals that anthropogenic carbon enters the Arctic Ocean mainly by lateral transport; the air–sea flux plays a minor role. Coarser-resolution versions of the same model, typical of earth system models, store less anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean and thus underestimate ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean.
Taylor S. Martin, François Primeau, and Karen L. Casciotti
Biogeosciences, 16, 347–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrite is a key intermediate in many nitrogen (N) cycling processes in the ocean, particularly in areas with low oxygen that are hotspots for N loss. We have created a 3-D global N cycle model with nitrite as a tracer. Stable isotopes of N are also included in the model and we are able to model the isotope fractionation associated with each N cycling process. Our model accurately represents N concentrations and isotope distributions in the ocean.
Camille Richon, Jean-Claude Dutay, Laurent Bopp, Briac Le Vu, James C. Orr, Samuel Somot, and François Dulac
Biogeosciences, 16, 135–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-135-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the effects of climate change and biogeochemical forcing evolution on the nutrient and plankton cycles of the Mediterranean Sea for the first time. We use a high-resolution coupled physical and biogeochemical model and perform 120-year transient simulations. The results indicate that changes in external nutrient fluxes and climate change may have synergistic or antagonistic effects on nutrient concentrations, depending on the region and the scenario.
Angela M. Kuhn, Katja Fennel, and Ilana Berman-Frank
Biogeosciences, 15, 7379–7401, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7379-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7379-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies demonstrate that marine N2 fixation can be carried out without light. However, direct measurements of N2 fixation in dark environments are relatively scarce. This study uses a model that represents biogeochemical cycles at a deep-ocean location in the Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea). Different model versions are used to test assumptions about N2 fixers. Relaxing light limitation for marine N2 fixers improved the similarity between model results and observations of deep nitrate and oxygen.
Prima Anugerahanti, Shovonlal Roy, and Keith Haines
Biogeosciences, 15, 6685–6711, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6685-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6685-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Minor changes in the biogeochemical model equations lead to major dynamical changes. We assessed this structural sensitivity for the MEDUSA biogeochemical model on chlorophyll and nitrogen concentrations at five oceanographic stations over 10 years, using 1-D ensembles generated by combining different process equations. The ensemble performed better than the default model in most of the stations, suggesting that our approach is useful for generating a probabilistic biogeochemical ensemble model.
Audrey Gimenez, Melika Baklouti, Thibaut Wagener, and Thierry Moutin
Biogeosciences, 15, 6573–6589, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6573-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6573-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
During the OUTPACE cruise conducted in the oligotrophic to ultra-oligotrophic region of the western tropical South Pacific, two contrasted regions were sampled in terms of N2 fixation rates, primary production rates and nutrient availability. The aim of this work was to investigate the role of N2 fixation in the differences observed between the two contrasted areas by comparing two simulations only differing by the presence or not of N2 fixers using a 1-D biogeochemical–physical coupled model.
Jenny Hieronymus, Kari Eilola, Magnus Hieronymus, H. E. Markus Meier, Sofia Saraiva, and Bengt Karlson
Biogeosciences, 15, 5113–5129, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5113-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5113-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates how phytoplankton concentrations in the Baltic Sea co-vary with nutrient concentrations and other key variables on inter-annual timescales in a model integration over the years 1850–2008. The study area is not only affected by climate change; it has also been subjected to greatly increased nutrient loads due to extensive use of agricultural fertilizers. The results indicate the largest inter-annual coherence of phytoplankton with the limiting nutrient.
Cyril Dutheil, Olivier Aumont, Thomas Gorguès, Anne Lorrain, Sophie Bonnet, Martine Rodier, Cécile Dupouy, Takuhei Shiozaki, and Christophe Menkes
Biogeosciences, 15, 4333–4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4333-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
N2 fixation is recognized as one of the major sources of nitrogen in the ocean. Thus, N2 fixation sustains a significant part of the primary production (PP) by supplying the most common limiting nutrient for phytoplankton growth. From numerical simulations, the local maximums of Trichodesmium biomass in the Pacific are found around islands, explained by the iron fluxes from island sediments. We assessed that 15 % of the PP may be due to Trichodesmium in the low-nutrient, low-chlorophyll areas.
Akitomo Yamamoto, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Biogeosciences, 15, 4163–4180, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4163-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4163-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Millennial-scale changes in oceanic CO2 uptake due to global warming are simulated by a GCM and offline biogeochemical model. Sensitivity studies show that decreases in oceanic CO2 uptake are mainly caused by a weaker biological pump and seawater warming. Enhanced CO2 uptake due to weaker equatorial upwelling cancels out reduced CO2 uptake due to weaker AMOC and AABW formation. Thus, circulation change plays only a small direct role in reduction of CO2 uptake due to global warming.
Fabian A. Gomez, Sang-Ki Lee, Yanyun Liu, Frank J. Hernandez Jr., Frank E. Muller-Karger, and John T. Lamkin
Biogeosciences, 15, 3561–3576, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3561-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3561-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal patterns in nanophytoplankton and diatom biomass in the Gulf of Mexico were examined with an ocean–biogeochemical model. We found silica limitation of model diatom growth in the deep GoM and Mississippi delta. Zooplankton grazing and both transport and vertical mixing of biomass substantially influence the model phytoplankton biomass seasonality. We stress the need for integrated analyses of biologically and physically driven biomass fluxes to describe phytoplankton seasonal changes.
Martí Galí, Maurice Levasseur, Emmanuel Devred, Rafel Simó, and Marcel Babin
Biogeosciences, 15, 3497–3519, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3497-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3497-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new algorithm to estimate the sea-surface concentration of dimethylsulfide (DMS) using satellite data. DMS is a gas produced by marine plankton that, once emitted to the atmosphere, plays a key climatic role by seeding cloud formation. We used the algorithm to produce global DMS maps and also regional DMS time series. The latter suggest that DMS can vary largely from one year to another, which should be taken into account in atmospheric studies.
Konstantin Stolpovsky, Andrew W. Dale, and Klaus Wallmann
Biogeosciences, 15, 3391–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3391-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3391-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The paper describes a new way to parameterize G-type models in marine sediments using data about reactivity of organic carbon sinking to the seafloor.
Anne Marx, Marcus Conrad, Vadym Aizinger, Alexander Prechtel, Robert van Geldern, and Johannes A. C. Barth
Biogeosciences, 15, 3093–3106, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3093-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3093-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
CO2 outgassing from small streams causes one of the main uncertainties in global carbon budgets. These are caused by variable flow conditions, changing stream surface areas, and groundwater seeps. Here we used groundwater data to improve a novel stable carbon isotope modelling approach. We found that CO2 outgassing contributed more than three-fourths of annual stream inorganic carbon loss in a small, silicate catchment. We underline the potential of this approach for global applications.
Malin Ödalen, Jonas Nycander, Kevin I. C. Oliver, Laurent Brodeau, and Andy Ridgwell
Biogeosciences, 15, 1367–1393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1367-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1367-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We conclude that different initial states for an ocean model result in different capacities for ocean carbon storage due to differences in the ocean circulation state and the origin of the carbon in the initial ocean carbon reservoir. This could explain why it is difficult to achieve comparable responses of the ocean carbon system in model inter-comparison studies in which the initial states vary between models. We show that this effect of the initial state is quantifiable.
Johan van der Molen, Piet Ruardij, Karen Mooney, Philip Kerrison, Nessa E. O'Connor, Emma Gorman, Klaas Timmermans, Serena Wright, Maeve Kelly, Adam D. Hughes, and Elisa Capuzzo
Biogeosciences, 15, 1123–1147, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1123-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1123-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Macroalgae farming may provide biofuel. Modelled macroalgae production is given for four sites in UK and Dutch waters. Macroalgae growth depended on nutrient concentrations and light levels. Macroalgae carbohydrate content, important for biofuel use, was lower for high nutrient concentrations. The hypothetical large-scale farm off the UK north Norfolk coast gave high, stable yields of macroalgae from year to year with substantial carbohydrate content.
Daniel E. Kaufman, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, John C. P. Hemmings, and Walker O. Smith Jr.
Biogeosciences, 15, 73–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-73-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-73-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations of the highly variable phytoplankton in the Ross Sea demonstrated how incorporating data from different sources (satellite, ship, or glider) results in different system interpretations. For example, simulations assimilating satellite-based data produced lower carbon export estimates. Combining observations with models in this remote, harsh, and biologically variable environment should include consideration of the potential impacts of data frequency, duration, and coverage.
Karin F. Kvale and Katrin J. Meissner
Biogeosciences, 14, 4767–4780, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4767-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4767-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models containing ocean biogeochemistry contain a lot of poorly constrained parameters, which makes model tuning difficult. For more than 20 years modellers have generally assumed phytoplankton light attenuation parameter value choice has an insignificant affect on model ocean primary production; thus, it is often overlooked for tuning. We show that an empirical range of light attenuation parameter values can affect primary production, with increasing sensitivity under climate change.
Elisa Lovecchio, Nicolas Gruber, Matthias Münnich, and Zouhair Lachkar
Biogeosciences, 14, 3337–3369, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3337-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3337-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We find that a big portion of the phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detrital organic matter produced near the northern African coast is laterally transported towards the open North Atlantic. This offshore flux sustains a relevant part of the biological activity in the open sea and reaches as far as the middle of the North Atlantic. Our results, obtained with a state-of-the-art model, highlight the fundamental role of the narrow but productive coastal ocean in sustaining global marine life.
Cited articles
Arblaster, J. M. and Meehl, G. A.: Contributions of external forcings to southern annular mode trends, J. Climate, 19, 2896–2905, 2006.
Arrigo, K. R., van Dijken, G. L., and Bushinsky, S.: Primary production in the Southern Ocean, 1997–2006, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 113, C08004, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2007jc004551, 2008.
Assmann, K. M., Bentsen, M., Segschneider, J., and Heinze, C.: An isopycnic ocean carbon cycle model, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 143–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-143-2010, 2010.
Atkinson, A., Siegel, V., Pakhomov, E., and Rothery, P.: Long-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern Ocean, Nature, 432, 100–103, 2004.
Aumont, O. and Bopp, L.: Globalizing results from ocean in situ iron fertilization studies, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, GB2017, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gb002591, 2006.
Ayers, J. M. and Strutton, P. G.: Nutrient availability in Subantarctic Mode Waters forced by the Southern Annular Mode and ENSO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3419–3423, 2013.
Beaulieu, C., Henson, S. A., Sarmiento, J. L., Dunne, J. P., Doney, S. C., Rykaczewski, R. R., and Bopp, L.: Factors challenging our ability to detect long-term trends in ocean chlorophyll, Biogeosciences, 10, 2711–2724, 10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013, 2013.
Bender, F. A. M., Ramanathan, V., and Tselioudis, G.: Changes in extratropical storm track cloudiness 1983–2008: observational support for a poleward shift, Climate Dynamics, 38, 2037–2053, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1065-6, 2012.
Bopp, L., Monfray, P., Aumont, O., Dufresne, J. L., Le Treut, H., Madec, G., Terray, L., and Orr, J. C.: Potential impact of climate change on marine export production, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 81–99, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999gb001256, 2001.
Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Cadule, P., Alvain, S., and Gehlen, M.: Response of diatoms distribution to global warming and potential implications: A global model study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl023653, 2005.
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Seferian, R., Tjiputra, J., and Vichi, M.: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013.
Boyd, P. W., Crossley, A. C., DiTullio, G. R., Griffiths, F. B., Hutchins, D. A., Queguiner, B., Sedwick, P. N., and Trull, T. W.: Control of phytoplankton growth by iron supply and irradiance in the subantarctic Southern Ocean: Experimental results from the SAZ Project, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 106, 31573–31583, 2001.
Boyd, P. W., Doney, S. C., Strzepek, R., Dusenberry, J., Lindsay, K., and Fung, I.: Climate-mediated changes to mixed-layer properties in the Southern Ocean: assessing the phytoplankton response, Biogeosciences, 5, 847–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-5-847-2008, 2008.
Cabré, A., Marinov, I., and Leung, S.: Consistent global responses of marine ecosystems to future climate change across the IPPC AR5 earth system models, Clim. Dynam., 45, 1253–1280, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2374-3, 2014.
Ceppi, P., Zelinka, M. D., and Hartmann, D. L.: The response of the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet to future changes in shortwave radiation in CMIP5, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3244–3250, 2014.
Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., Hughes, J., Jones, C. D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire, A., and Woodward, S.: Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model–HadGEM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1051–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, 2011.
Cullen, J. J.: Hypotheses to explain high-nutrient conditions in the open sea, Limnol. Oceanogr., 36, 1578–1599, 1991.
Doney, S. C.: Oceanography – Plankton in a warmer world, Nature, 444, 695–696, 2006.
Dunne, J. P., John, J. G., Shevliakova, E., Stouffer, R. J., Krasting, J. P., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Sentman, L. T., Adcroft, A. J., Cooke, W., Dunne, K. A., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R. W., Harrison, M. J., Levy, H., Wittenberg, A. T., Phillips, P. J., and Zadeh, N.: GFDL's ESM2 Global Coupled Climate-Carbon Earth System Models, Part II: Carbon System Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics, J. Climate, 26, 2247–2267, 2013.
Eppley, R. W. and Peterson, B. J.: Particulate organic-matter flux and planktonic new production in the deep ocean, Nature, 282, 677–680, 1979.
Falkowski, P., Scholes, R. J., Boyle, E., Canadell, J., Canfield, D., Elser, J., Gruber, N., Hibbard, K., Hogberg, P., Linder, S., Mackenzie, F. T., Moore, B., Pedersen, T., Rosenthal, Y., Seitzinger, S., Smetacek, V., and Steffen, W.: The global carbon cycle: A test of our knowledge of earth as a system, Science, 290, 291–296, 2000.
Fay, A. R., McKinley, G. A., and Lovenduski, N. S.: Southern Ocean carbon trends: Sensitivity to methods, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 6833–6840, 2014.
Feng, Y., Hare, C. E., Rose, J. M., Handy, S. M., DiTullio, G. R., Lee, P. A., Smith, W. O., Jr., Peloquin, J., Tozzi, S., Sun, J., Zhang, Y., Dunbar, R. B., Long, M. C., Sohst, B., Lohan, M., and Hutchins, D. A.: Interactive effects of iron, irradiance and CO2 on Ross Sea phytoplankton, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 57, 368–383, 2010.
Geider, R. J., Delucia, E. H., Falkowski, P. G., Finzi, A. C., Grime, J. P., Grace, J., Kana, T. M., La Roche, J., Long, S. P., Osborne, B. A., Platt, T., Prentice, I. C., Raven, J. A., Schlesinger, W. H., Smetacek, V., Stuart, V., Sathyendranath, S., Thomas, R. B., Vogelmann, T. C., Williams, P., and Woodward, F. I.: Primary productivity of planet earth: biological determinants and physical constraints in terrestrial and aquatic habitats, Glob. Change Biol., 7, 849–882, 2001.
Gillett, N. P. and Fyfe, J. C.: Annular mode changes in the CMIP5 simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1189–1193, 2013.
Gregg, W. W.: Assimilation of SeaWiFS ocean chlorophyll data into a three-dimensional global ocean model, J. Mar. Syst., 69, 205–225, 2008.
Gregg, W. W., Casey, N. W., and McClain, C. R.: Recent trends in global ocean chlorophyll, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L03606, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl021808, 2005.
Hauck, J., Volker, C., Wang, T., Hoppema, M., Losch, M., and Wolf-Gladrow, D. A.: Seasonally different carbon flux changes in the Southern Ocean in response to the Southern Annular Mode, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 1236–1245, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GB004600, 2013.
Heinze, C., Maier-Reimer, E., and Winn, K.: Glacial pCO2 reduction by the World Ocean: Experiments with the Hamburg Carbon Cycle Model, Paleoceanography, 6, 395–430, 1991.
Henson, S. A., Sarmiento, J. L., Dunne, J. P., Bopp, L., Lima, I., Doney, S. C., John, J., and Beaulieu, C.: Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity, Biogeosciences, 7, 621–640, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-621-2010, 2010.
Ilyina, T., Six, K. D., Segschneider, J., Maier-Reimer, E., Li, H., and Nunez-Riboni, I.: Global ocean biogeochemistry model HAMOCC: Model architecture and performance as component of the MPI-Earth system model in different CMIP5 experimental realizations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 287–315, 2013.
Johnston, B. M. and Gabric, A. J.: Interannual variability in estimated biological productivity in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean in 1997-2007, Tellus Series B, 63, 266–286, 2011.
Kay, J. E., Medeiros, B., Hwang, Y. T., Gettelman, A., Perket, J., and Flanner, M. G.: Processes controlling Southern Ocean shortwave climate feedbacks in CESM, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 616–622, 2014.
Laufkötter, C., Vogt, M., Gruber, N., Aita-Noguchi, M., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Buitenhuis, E., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J., Hashioka, T., Hauck, J., Hirata, T., John, J., Le Quéré, C., Lima, I. D., Nakano, H., Seferian, R., Totterdell, I., Vichi, M., and Völker, C.: Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models, Biogeosciences Discuss., 12, 3731–3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-3731-2015, 2015.
Le Quéré, C., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., Buitenhuis, E. T., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Claustre, H., Da Cunha, L. C., Geider, R., Giraud, X., Klaas, C., Kohfeld, K. E., Legendre, L., Manizza, M., Platt, T., Rivkin, R. B., Sathyendranath, S., Uitz, J., Watson, A. J., and Wolf-Gladrow, D.: Ecosystem dynamics based on plankton functional types for global ocean biogeochemistry models, Glob. Change Biol., 11, 2016–2040, 2005.
Lovenduski, N. S. and Gruber, N.: Impact of the Southern Annular Mode on Southern Ocean circulation and biology, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L11603, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl022727, 2005.
Mahlstein, I., Gent, P. R., and Solomon, S.: Historical Antarctic mean sea ice area, sea ice trends, and winds in CMIP5 simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 5105–5110, 2013.
Marinov, I., Gnanadesikan, A., Toggweiler, J. R., and Sarmiento, J. L.: The Southern Ocean biogeochemical divide, Nature, 441, 964–967, 2006.
Marinov, I., Doney, S. C., and Lima, I. D.: Response of ocean phytoplankton community structure to climate change over the 21st century: partitioning the effects of nutrients, temperature and light, Biogeosciences, 7, 3941–3959, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-3941-2010, 2010.
Marinov, I., Doney, S. C., Lima, I. D., Lindsay, K., Moore, J. K., and Mahowald, N.: North-South asymmetry in the modeled phytoplankton community response to climate change over the 21st century, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 1274–1290, 2013.
Martin, J. H., Gordon, R. M., and Fitzwater, S. E.: Iron in Antarctic waters, Nature, 345, 156–158, 1990.
Meijers, A. J. S., Shuckburgh, E., Bruneau, N., Sallee, J. B., Bracegirdle, T. J., and Wang, Z.: Representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the CMIP5 climate models and future changes under warming scenarios, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117, C12008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jc008412, 2012.
Misumi, K., Lindsay, K., Moore, J. K., Doney, S. C., Bryan, F. O., Tsumune, D., and Yoshida, Y.: The iron budget in ocean surface waters in the 20th and 21st centuries: projections by the Community Earth System Model version 1, Biogeosciences, 11, 33–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-33-2014, 2014.
Montes-Hugo, M., Doney, S. C., Ducklow, H. W., Fraser, W., Martinson, D., Stammerjohn, S. E., and Schofield, O.: Recent Changes in Phytoplankton Communities Associated with Rapid Regional Climate Change Along the Western Antarctic Peninsula, Science, 323, 1470–1473, 2009.
Moore, C. M., Mills, M. M., Arrigo, K. R., Berman-Frank, I., Bopp, L., Boyd, P. W., Galbraith, E. D., Geider, R. J., Guieu, C., Jaccard, S. L., Jickells, T. D., La Roche, J., Lenton, T. M., Mahowald, N. M., Maranon, E., Marinov, I., Moore, J. K., Nakatsuka, T., Oschlies, A., Saito, M. A., Thingstad, T. F., Tsuda, A., and Ulloa, O.: Processes and patterns of oceanic nutrient limitation, Nature Geosci., 6, 701–710, 2013.
Moore, J. K., Doney, S. C., and Lindsay, K.: Upper ocean ecosystem dynamics and iron cycling in a global three-dimensional model, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB4028, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gb002220, 2004.
Moore, J. K., Doney, S. C., Lindsay, K., Mahowald, N., and Michaels, A. F.: Nitrogen fixation amplifies the ocean biogeochemical response to decadal timescale variations in mineral dust deposition, Tellus Series B, 58, 560–572, 2006.
Moore, J. K., Lindsay, K., Doney, S. C., Long, M. C., and Misumi, K.: Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling in the Community Earth System Model [CESM1(BGC)]: Comparison of the 1990s with the 2090s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios, J. Climate, 26, 9291–9312, 2013.
Palmer, J. R. and Totterdell, I. J.: Production and export in a global ocean ecosystem model, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 48, 1169–1198, 2001.
Pitchford, J. W. and Brindley, J.: Iron limitation, grazing pressure and oceanic high nutrient-low chlorophyll (HNLC) regions, J. Plank. Res., 21, 525–547, 1999.
Russell, J. L., Dixon, K. W., Gnanadesikan, A., Stouffer, R. J., and Toggweiler, J. R.: The Southern Hemisphere westerlies in a warming world: Propping open the door to the deep ocean, J. Climate, 19, 6382–6390, 2006.
Sarmiento, J. L., Gruber, N., Brzezinski, M. A., and Dunne, J. P.: High-latitude controls of thermocline nutrients and low latitude biological productivity, Nature, 427, 56–60, 2004a.
Sarmiento, J. L., Slater, R., Barber, R., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Hirst, A. C., Kleypas, J., Matear, R., Mikolajewicz, U., Monfray, P., Soldatov, V., Spall, S. A., and Stouffer, R.: Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB3003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gb002134, 2004b.
Schmittner, A., Oschlies, A., Matthews, H. D., and Galbraith, E. D.: Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB1013, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gb002953, 2008.
Seferian, R., Bopp, L., Gehlen, M., Orr, J. C., Ethe, C., Cadule, P., Aumont, O., Salas y Melia, D., Voldoire, A., and Madec, G.: Skill assessment of three earth system models with common marine biogeochemistry, Climate Dynam., 40, 2549–2573, 2013.
Siegel, D. A., Behrenfeld, M., Maritorena, S., McClain, C. R., Antoine, D., Bailey, S. W., Bontempi, P. S., Boss, E. S., Dierssen, H. M., Doney, S. C., Eplee, R. E., Jr., Evans, R. H., Feldman, G. C., Fields, E., Franz, B. A., Kuring, N. A., Mengelt, C., Nelson, N. B., Patt, F. S., Robinson, W. D., Sarmiento, J. L., Swan, C. M., Werdell, P. J., Westberry, T. K., Wilding, J. G., and Yoder, J. A.: Regional to global assessments of phytoplankton dynamics from the SeaWiFS mission, Remote Sens. Environ., 135, 77–91, 2013.
Smith Jr., W. O. and Comiso, J. C.: Influence of sea ice on primary production in the Southern Ocean: A satellite perspective, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 113, C05S93, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007jc004251, 2008.
Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Frölicher, T. L., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Cocco, V., Doney, S. C., Gehlen, M., Lindsay, K., Moore, J. K., Schneider, B., and Segschneider, J.: Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis, Biogeosciences, 7, 979–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-979-2010, 2010.
Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M.: IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324, 2013.
Strutton, P. G., Lovenduski, N. S., Mongin, M., and Matear, R.: Quantification of Southern Ocean phytoplankton biomass and primary productivity via satellite observations and biogeochemical models, CCAMLR Science, 19, 247–265, 2012.
Sunda, W. G. and Huntsman, S. A.: Interrelated influence of iron, light and cell size on marine phytoplankton growth, Nature, 390, 389–392, 1997.
Takao, S., Hirawake, T., Wright, S. W., and Suzuki, K.: Variations of net primary productivity and phytoplankton community composition in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean as estimated from ocean color remote sensing data, Biogeosciences, 9, 3875–3890, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3875-2012, 2012.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, 2012.
Thomalla, S. J., Fauchereau, N., Swart, S., and Monteiro, P. M. S.: Regional scale characteristics of the seasonal cycle of chlorophyll in the Southern Ocean, Biogeosciences, 8, 2849–2866, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-2849-2011, 2011.
Thompson, D. W. J. and Solomon, S.: Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change, Science, 296, 895–899, 2002.
Turner, J., Bracegirdle, T. J., Phillips, T., Marshall, G. J., and Hosking, J. S.: An initial assessment of Antarctic sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models, J. Climate, 26, 1473–1484, 2013.
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5–31, 2011.
Vichi, M., Pinardi, N., and Masina, S.: A generalized model of pelagic biogeochemistry.for the global ocean ecosystem, Part I: Theory, J. Mar. Syst., 64, 89–109, 2007.
Wang, S. and Moore, J. K.: Variability of primary production and air-sea CO2 flux in the Southern Ocean, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 26, GB1008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gb003981, 2012.
Watanabe, S., Hajima, T., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Takemura, T., Okajima, H., Nozawa, T., Kawase, H., Abe, M., Yokohata, T., Ise, T., Sato, H., Kato, E., Takata, K., Emori, S., and Kawamiya, M.: MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 845–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011, 2011..
Yin, J. H.: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl023684, 2005.
Yukimoto, S., Yoshimura, H., Hosaka, M., Sakami, T., Tsujino, H., Hirabara, M., Tanaka, T. Y., Deushi, M., Obata, A., Nakano, H., Adachi, Y., Shindo, E., Yabu, S., Ose, T., and Kitoh, A.: MRI-ESM1 model description, Technical reports of the Meteorological Research Institute, 64, available at: http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Publish/Technical/DATA/VOL_64/tec_rep_mri_64.pdf (last access: 10 August 2015), 2011.
Zahariev, K., Christian, J. R., and Denman, K. L.: Preindustrial, historical, and fertilization simulations using a global ocean carbon model with new parameterizations of iron limitation, calcification, and N-2 fixation, Prog. Oceanogr., 77, 56–82, 2008.
Zheng, F., Li, J., Clark, R. T., and Nnamchi, H. C.: Simulation and Projection of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode in CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 26, 9860–9879, 2013.
Short summary
Using the latest earth system models, we find that shifts in nutrient and light availability with future climate warming drive latitudinally banded changes in Southern Ocean phytoplankton distributions, which have the potential to significantly alter nutrient cycling as well as higher trophic level productivity throughout the global ocean. Spatial patterns in the modelled mechanisms driving these predicted phytoplankton trends qualitatively agree with recent observations.
Using the latest earth system models, we find that shifts in nutrient and light availability...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint