Articles | Volume 10, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
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https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
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02 Oct 2013
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 02 Oct 2013
Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models
IPSL/LSCE, UMR8212, CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France
L. Resplandy
IPSL/LSCE, UMR8212, CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France
J. C. Orr
IPSL/LSCE, UMR8212, CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France
S. C. Doney
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
J. P. Dunne
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
M. Gehlen
IPSL/LSCE, UMR8212, CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France
P. Halloran
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
C. Heinze
Uni Klima, Uni Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
T. Ilyina
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
R. Séférian
IPSL/LSCE, UMR8212, CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France
Centre National de Recherche de Météo-France, CNRM-GAME – URA1357, Toulouse, France
J. Tjiputra
Uni Klima, Uni Research AS, Bergen, Norway
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy
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Pierre Sepulchre, Arnaud Caubel, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Pascale Braconnot, Patrick Brockmann, Anne Cozic, Yannick Donnadieu, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Victor Estella-Perez, Christian Ethé, Frédéric Fluteau, Marie-Alice Foujols, Guillaume Gastineau, Josefine Ghattas, Didier Hauglustaine, Frédéric Hourdin, Masa Kageyama, Myriam Khodri, Olivier Marti, Yann Meurdesoif, Juliette Mignot, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Jérôme Servonnat, Didier Swingedouw, Sophie Szopa, and Delphine Tardif
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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Renaud Person, Olivier Aumont, Gurvan Madec, Martin Vancoppenolle, Laurent Bopp, and Nacho Merino
Biogeosciences, 16, 3583–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3583-2019, 2019
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is considered a possibly important but largely overlooked source of iron (Fe). Here we explore its fertilization capacity by evaluating the response of marine biogeochemistry to Fe release from icebergs and ice shelves in a global ocean model. Large regional impacts are simulated, leading to only modest primary production and carbon export increases at the scale of the Southern Ocean. Large uncertainties are due to low observational constraints on modeling choices.
Jens Terhaar, James C. Orr, Marion Gehlen, Christian Ethé, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 16, 2343–2367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2343-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2343-2019, 2019
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A budget of anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean, the main driver of open-ocean acidification, was constructed for the first time using a high-resolution ocean model. The budget reveals that anthropogenic carbon enters the Arctic Ocean mainly by lateral transport; the air–sea flux plays a minor role. Coarser-resolution versions of the same model, typical of earth system models, store less anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean and thus underestimate ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean.
Ludivine Conte, Sophie Szopa, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 16, 881–902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-881-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-881-2019, 2019
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The ocean is a source of atmospheric carbon monoxide, a key component for the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. We use a global ocean biogeochemistry model to dynamically assess the oceanic CO budget and its emission to the atmosphere at the global scale. The total emissions of CO to the atmosphere are 4.0 Tg C yr−1. The oceanic CO emission maps produced are relevant for use by atmospheric chemical models, especially to study the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere above the remote ocean.
Camille Richon, Jean-Claude Dutay, Laurent Bopp, Briac Le Vu, James C. Orr, Samuel Somot, and François Dulac
Biogeosciences, 16, 135–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-135-2019, 2019
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We evaluate the effects of climate change and biogeochemical forcing evolution on the nutrient and plankton cycles of the Mediterranean Sea for the first time. We use a high-resolution coupled physical and biogeochemical model and perform 120-year transient simulations. The results indicate that changes in external nutrient fluxes and climate change may have synergistic or antagonistic effects on nutrient concentrations, depending on the region and the scenario.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Julien Palmiéri, Jean-Claude Dutay, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Loïc Houpert, Nicolas Mayot, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-423, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-423, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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In this model study, we highlight the importance of the subsurface phytoplankton dynamic in the Mediterranean sea. Comparing surface chlorophyll annual cycle to vertically integrated one, we show how important the subsurface phytoplankton community is, throughout the Mediterranean. It shows that surface chlorophyll is incomplete and cannot alone be considered a good proxy of the total phytoplankton biomass. Then, we decrypt some deep chlorophyll maximum mechanisms in the low production area.
Virginie Racapé, Patricia Zunino, Herlé Mercier, Pascale Lherminier, Laurent Bopp, Fiz F. Pérèz, and Marion Gehlen
Biogeosciences, 15, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4661-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4661-2018, 2018
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This study of a model–data comparison investigates the relationship between transport, air–sea flux and storage rate of Cant in the North Atlantic Subpolar Ocean over the past 53 years. It reveals the key role played by Central Water for storing Cant in the subtropical region and for supplying Cant into the deep ocean. The Cant transfer to the deep ocean occurred mainly north of the OVIDE section, and just a small fraction was exported to the subtropical gyre within the lower MOC.
Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, Heike K. Lotze, Eric D. Galbraith, William Cheung, Manuel Barange, Julia L. Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Matthias Büchner, Catherine Bulman, David A. Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P. Dunne, Jose A. Fernandes, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Alistair J. Hobday, Veronika Huber, Simon Jennings, Miranda Jones, Patrick Lehodey, Jason S. Link, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Tilla Roy, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago Silva, Charles A. Stock, Jeroen Steenbeek, Philip J. Underwood, Jan Volkholz, James R. Watson, and Nicola D. Walker
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1421–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, 2018
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Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial for strengthening future projections. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. We describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project, which brings together the marine ecosystem modelling community to inform long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Priscilla Le Mézo, Luc Beaufort, Laurent Bopp, Pascale Braconnot, and Masa Kageyama
Clim. Past, 13, 759–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-759-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-759-2017, 2017
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This paper focuses on the relationship between Arabian Sea biological productivity and the Indian summer monsoon in climates of the last 72 kyr. A general circulation model coupled to a biogeochemistry model simulates the changes in productivity and monsoon intensity and pattern. The paradigm stating that a stronger summer monsoon enhances productivity is not always verified in our simulations. This work highlights the importance of considering the monsoon pattern in addition to its intensity.
James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017
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The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Olivier Boucher, Yann Quilcaille, Maxime Tortora, Laurent Bopp, and Didier Hauglustaine
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 271–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, 2017
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Simple models of the Earth system are useful, especially because of their high computing efficiency. This work describes the OSCAR model: a new simple Earth system model calibrated on state-of-the-art complex models. It will add to the pool of the few simple models currently used by the community, and it will therefore improve the robustness of future studies. Its source code is available upon request.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
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The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
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How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Timothée Bourgeois, James C. Orr, Laure Resplandy, Jens Terhaar, Christian Ethé, Marion Gehlen, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 13, 4167–4185, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4167-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4167-2016, 2016
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The global coastal ocean took up 0.1 Pg C yr−1 of anthropogenic carbon during 1993–2012 based on new biogeochemical simulations with an eddying 3-D global model. That is about half of the most recent estimate, an extrapolation based on surface areas. It should not be confused with the continental shelf pump, perhaps 10 times larger, which includes natural as well as anthropogenic carbon. Coastal uptake of anthropogenic carbon is limited by its offshore transport.
Corinne Le Quéré, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Róisín Moriarty, Séverine Alvain, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Sophie Chollet, Clare Enright, Daniel J. Franklin, Richard J. Geider, Sandy P. Harrison, Andrew G. Hirst, Stuart Larsen, Louis Legendre, Trevor Platt, I. Colin Prentice, Richard B. Rivkin, Sévrine Sailley, Shubha Sathyendranath, Nick Stephens, Meike Vogt, and Sergio M. Vallina
Biogeosciences, 13, 4111–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, 2016
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We present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types, and use the model to assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton growth.
Charlotte Laufkötter, Meike Vogt, Nicolas Gruber, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Judith Hauck, Jasmin G. John, Ivan D. Lima, Roland Seferian, and Christoph Völker
Biogeosciences, 13, 4023–4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, 2016
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We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. While all models project decreases in export, they differ strongly regarding the drivers. The formation of sinking particles of organic matter is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. Changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for export in some models but of low significance in others.
Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, Laurent Bopp, Laure Resplandy, James C. Orr, Olivier Marti, John P. Dunne, James R. Christian, Scott C. Doney, Tatiana Ilyina, Keith Lindsay, Paul R. Halloran, Christoph Heinze, Joachim Segschneider, Jerry Tjiputra, Olivier Aumont, and Anastasia Romanou
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1827–1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, 2016
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This paper explores how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for ocean biogeochemistry in CMIP5 models contributed to inter-model differences in modeled fields. We show that a link between spin-up duration and skill-score metrics emerges from both individual IPSL-CM5A-LR's results and an ensemble of CMIP5 models. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols constitute a source of inter-model uncertainty which would require more attention in future intercomparison exercises.
C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, N. Gruber, M. Aita-Noguchi, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, S. C. Doney, J. Dunne, T. Hashioka, J. Hauck, T. Hirata, J. John, C. Le Quéré, I. D. Lima, H. Nakano, R. Seferian, I. Totterdell, M. Vichi, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015
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We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
O. Aumont, C. Ethé, A. Tagliabue, L. Bopp, and M. Gehlen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2465–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, 2015
J. Martinez-Rey, L. Bopp, M. Gehlen, A. Tagliabue, and N. Gruber
Biogeosciences, 12, 4133–4148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4133-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4133-2015, 2015
R. Wang, Y. Balkanski, O. Boucher, L. Bopp, A. Chappell, P. Ciais, D. Hauglustaine, J. Peñuelas, and S. Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6247–6270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, 2015
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This study makes a first attempt to estimate the temporal trend of Fe emissions from anthropogenic and natural combustion sources from 1960 to 2007 and the emissions of Fe from mineral dust based on a recent mineralogical database. The new emission inventory is introduced into a global aerosol model. The simulated total Fe and soluble Fe concentrations in surface air as well as the deposition of total Fe are evaluated by observations over major continental and oceanic regions globally.
N. Bouttes, D. M. Roche, V. Mariotti, and L. Bopp
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1563–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1563-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1563-2015, 2015
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We describe the development of a relatively simple climate model to include a model of the carbon cycle in the ocean. The carbon cycle consists of the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, land vegetation and ocean. In the ocean, carbon exists in organic form, such as plankton which grows and dies, and inorganic forms, such as dissolved CO2. With this we will be able to explore long-standing questions such as why the atmospheric CO2 has changed over time during the last million years.
T. Roy, F. Lombard, L. Bopp, and M. Gehlen
Biogeosciences, 12, 2873–2889, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2873-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2873-2015, 2015
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
T. Launois, S. Belviso, L. Bopp, C. G. Fichot, and P. Peylin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2295–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2295-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2295-2015, 2015
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
C. D. Nevison, M. Manizza, R. F. Keeling, M. Kahru, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, J. Tiputra, T. Ilyina, and B. G. Mitchell
Biogeosciences, 12, 193–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-193-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-193-2015, 2015
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The observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) at five surface monitoring sites are compared to those inferred from the air-sea O2 fluxes of six ocean biogeochemistry models. The simulated air-sea fluxes are translated into APO seasonal cycles using a matrix method that takes into account atmospheric transport model (ATM) uncertainty among 13 different ATMs. Net primary production (NPP), estimated from satellite ocean color data, is also compared to model output.
M. Gehlen, R. Séférian, D. O. B. Jones, T. Roy, R. Roth, J. Barry, L. Bopp, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, C. Heinze, F. Joos, J. C. Orr, L. Resplandy, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 11, 6955–6967, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, 2014
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This study evaluates potential impacts of pH reductions on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to latest IPCC scenarios.Multi-model projections of pH changes over the seafloor are analysed with reference to a critical threshold based on palaeo-oceanographic studies, contemporary observations and model results. By 2100 under the most severe IPCC CO2 scenario, pH reductions occur over ~23% of deep-sea canyons and ~8% of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as marine protected areas.
K. B. Rodgers, O. Aumont, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, Y. Plancherel, L. Bopp, C. de Boyer Montégut, D. Iudicone, R. F. Keeling, G. Madec, and R. Wanninkhof
Biogeosciences, 11, 4077–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4077-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4077-2014, 2014
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
J. Holt, C. Schrum, H. Cannaby, U. Daewel, I. Allen, Y. Artioli, L. Bopp, M. Butenschon, B. A. Fach, J. Harle, D. Pushpadas, B. Salihoglu, and S. Wakelin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
M. Vogt, T. Hashioka, M. R. Payne, E. T. Buitenhuis, C. Le Quéré, S. Alvain, M. N. Aita, L. Bopp, S. C. Doney, T. Hirata, I. Lima, S. Sailley, and Y. Yamanaka
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-17193-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-17193-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
T. Hashioka, M. Vogt, Y. Yamanaka, C. Le Quéré, E. T. Buitenhuis, M. N. Aita, S. Alvain, L. Bopp, T. Hirata, I. Lima, S. Sailley, and S. C. Doney
Biogeosciences, 10, 6833–6850, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6833-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6833-2013, 2013
C. Le Quéré, R. J. Andres, T. Boden, T. Conway, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, G. Marland, G. P. Peters, G. R. van der Werf, A. Ahlström, R. M. Andrew, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, S. C. Doney, C. Enright, P. Friedlingstein, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, C. Jourdain, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, J. Schwinger, S. Sitch, B. D. Stocker, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, 2013
C. Beaulieu, S. A. Henson, Jorge L. Sarmiento, J. P. Dunne, S. C. Doney, R. R. Rykaczewski, and L. Bopp
Biogeosciences, 10, 2711–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013, 2013
R. Séférian, L. Bopp, D. Swingedouw, and J. Servonnat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 109–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-109-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-109-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernadello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488, 2024
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We apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach with Earth System Models to provide simulations in which all ESMs converge at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the CMIP scenarios. This new type of target-based emission-driven simulations offers a more coherent assessment across ESMs for studying both the carbon cycle and impacts under climate stabilization.
István Dunkl, Ana Bastos, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-7, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-7, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD
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While the climate mode El Niño-Southern Oscillation has a similar impact on CO2 growth rate in earth system models, there is a high uncertainty in the processes behind this relationship. We found a compensatory effect masking differences in the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climate anomalies, and that the carbon fluxes contributing to global CO2 anomaly originate from different regions and are caused by different drivers.
Colin Gareth Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben Booth, Peter Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene Hewitt, Hazel Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm Roberts, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Froelicher, Neven Fuckar, Matthew Gidden, Helge Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, Jose Manuel Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason A. Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Melia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming ~6 years (i.e. to 2030). Advances in these areas will increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, as well as deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as the 7th IPCC Assessment Report and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake under the Paris Climate Agreement.
Bertrand Guenet, Jérémie Orliac, Lauric Cécillon, Olivier Torres, Laura Sereni, Philip A. Martin, Pierre Barré, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 21, 657–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-657-2024, 2024
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Heterotrophic respiration fluxes are a major flux between surfaces and the atmosphere, but Earth system models do not yet represent them correctly. Here we benchmarked Earth system models against observation-based products, and we identified the important mechanisms that need to be improved in the next-generation Earth system models.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
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Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Dennis Booge, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Birgit Quack, and Kirstin Krüger
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-3, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-3, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESD
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Oceanic bromoform is produced by algae and an important precursor of atmospheric bromine, which highlights the importance to implement those emissions in climate models. The simulated mean oceanic concentrations are in good agreement with observations, while the mean atmospheric values are lower than observed ones. Modelled annual mean emissions are mostly from the sea to the air, driven by oceanic concentrations, sea surface temperature and wind speed, dependent on season and location.
Ashleigh Womack, Alberto Alberello, Marc de Vos, Alessandro Toffoli, Robyn Verrinder, and Marcello Vichi
The Cryosphere, 18, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-205-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-205-2024, 2024
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Synoptic events have a significant influence on the evolution of Antarctic sea ice. Our current understanding of the interactions between cyclones and sea ice remains limited. Using two ensembles of buoys, deployed in the north-eastern Weddell Sea region during winter and spring of 2019, we show how the evolution and spatial pattern of sea ice drift and deformation in the Antarctic marginal ice zone were affected by the balance between atmospheric and oceanic forcing and the local ice.
Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Marion Gehlen, Nicolas Metzl, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 121–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-121-2024, 2024
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CMEMS-LSCE leads as the first global observation-based reconstructions of six carbonate system variables for the years 1985–2021 at monthly and 0.25° resolutions. The high-resolution reconstructions outperform their 1° counterpart in reproducing horizontal and temporal gradients of observations over various oceanic regions to nearshore time series stations. New datasets can be exploited in numerous studies, including monitoring changes in ocean carbon uptake and ocean acidification.
Shunya Koseki, Lander R. Crespo, Jerry Tjiputra, Filippa Fransner, Noel S. Keenlyside, and David Rivas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2947, 2023
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We investigated how the physical biases of an Earth system model influence the marine biogeochemical processes in the tropical Atlantic. With four different configurations of the model, we have shown that the versions with better SST reproduction tend to represent the primary production and sea-air CO2 flux in terms of climatology, seasonal cycle, and responses to climate variability.
Jim M. Haywood, Andy Jones, Anthony C. Jones, Paul Halloran, and Philip J. Rasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15305–15324, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15305-2023, 2023
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The difficulties in ameliorating global warming and the associated climate change via conventional mitigation are well documented, with all climate model scenarios exceeding 1.5 °C above the preindustrial level in the near future. There is therefore a growing interest in geoengineering to reflect a greater proportion of sunlight back to space and offset some of the global warming. We use a state-of-the-art Earth-system model to investigate two of the most prominent geoengineering strategies.
Alizée Dale, Marion Gehlen, Douglas W. R. Wallace, Germain Bénard, Christian Éthé, and Elena Alekseenko
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2538, 2023
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Diatom, which is at the base of a productive food chain that supports valuable fisheries, dominates the total primary production of the Labrador Sea (LS). The synthesis of biogenic silica frustules makes them peculiar among phytoplankton but also dependent on dissolved silicate (DSi). Regular oceanographic surveys show declining DSi concentrations since the mid-1990s. With a model-based approach, we show that weakening deep winter convection was the proximate cause of DSi decline in the LS.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Erik Askov Mousing, Jerry Tjiputra, and Annette Samuelsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6875–6897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6875-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6875-2023, 2023
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We present an along BGC-Argo track 1D modelling framework. The model physics is constrained by the BGC-Argo temperature and salinity profiles to reduce the uncertainties related to mixed layer dynamics, allowing the evaluation of the biogeochemical formulation and parameterization. We objectively analyse the model with BGC-Argo and satellite data and improve the model biogeochemical dynamics. We present the framework, example cases and routines for model improvement and implementations.
David T. Ho, Laurent Bopp, Jaime B. Palter, Matthew C. Long, Philip W. Boyd, Griet Neukermans, and Lennart T. Bach
State Planet, 2-oae2023, 12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-12-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-12-2023, 2023
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Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) refers to the multistep process to quantify the amount of carbon dioxide removed by a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) activity. Here, we make recommendations for MRV for Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) research, arguing that it has an obligation for comprehensiveness, reproducibility, and transparency, as it may become the foundation for assessing large-scale deployment. Both observations and numerical simulations will be needed for MRV.
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2127, 2023
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth System Models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches which have largely focussed on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We highlight the technical feasibility of achieving these simulations in coming years.
Nicolas Metzl, Claire Lo Monaco, Coraline Leseurre, Céline Ridame, Gilles Reverdin, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, and Marion Gehlen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2537, 2023
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In the southern Indian Ocean, south of the Polar Front, observed increase of sea surface fCO2 and decrease of pH over 1985–2021 are mainly driven by anthropogenic CO2 uptake but in the last decade (2010–2020) fCO2 and pH were stable in summer highlighting the competitive balance between anthropogenic CO2 and primary production. In the water column the increase of anthropogenic CO2 concentrations leads to a migration of the aragonite saturation state from 600 m in 1985 up to 400 m in 2021.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Preprint under review for BG
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For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Jonathan D. Sharp, Andrea J. Fassbender, Brendan R. Carter, Gregory C. Johnson, Cristina Schultz, and John P. Dunne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4481–4518, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4481-2023, 2023
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Dissolved oxygen content is a critical metric of ocean health. Recently, expanding fleets of autonomous platforms that measure oxygen in the ocean have produced a wealth of new data. We leverage machine learning to take advantage of this growing global dataset, producing a gridded data product of ocean interior dissolved oxygen at monthly resolution over nearly 2 decades. This work provides novel information for investigations of spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability in ocean oxygen.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatimah Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-176, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-176, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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For the next generation of Earth System Model runs to project future climate change, the scientific community considers new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs. As a contribution to that debate, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for Representative Emission Pathways (REP). These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
István Dunkl, Nicole Lovenduski, Alessio Collalti, Vivek K. Arora, Tatiana Ilyina, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 3523–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, 2023
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Despite differences in the reproduction of gross primary productivity (GPP) by Earth system models (ESMs), ESMs have similar predictability of the global carbon cycle. We found that, although GPP variability originates from different regions and is driven by different climatic variables across the ESMs, the ESMs rely on the same mechanisms to predict their own GPP. This shows that the predictability of the carbon cycle is limited by our understanding of variability rather than predictability.
Zhibo Shao, Yangchun Xu, Hua Wang, Weicheng Luo, Lice Wang, Yuhong Huang, Nona Sheila R. Agawin, Ayaz Ahmed, Mar Benavides, Mikkel Bentzon-Tilia, Ilana Berman-Frank, Hugo Berthelot, Isabelle C. Biegala, Mariana B. Bif, Antonio Bode, Sophie Bonnet, Deborah A. Bronk, Mark V. Brown, Lisa Campbell, Douglas G. Capone, Edward J. Carpenter, Nicolas Cassar, Bonnie X. Chang, Dreux Chappell, Yuh-ling Lee Chen, Matthew J. Church, Francisco M. Cornejo-Castillo, Amália Maria Sacilotto Detoni, Scott C. Doney, Cecile Dupouy, Marta Estrada, Camila Fernandez, Bieito Fernández-Castro, Debany Fonseca-Batista, Rachel A. Foster, Ken Furuya, Nicole Garcia, Kanji Goto, Jesús Gago, Mary R. Gradoville, M. Robert Hamersley, Britt A. Henke, Cora Hörstmann, Amal Jayakumar, Zhibing Jiang, Shuh-Ji Kao, David M. Karl, Leila R. Kittu, Angela N. Knapp, Sanjeev Kumar, Julie LaRoche, Hongbin Liu, Jiaxing Liu, Caroline Lory, Carolin R. Löscher, Emilio Marañón, Lauren F. Messer, Matthew M. Mills, Wiebke Mohr, Pia H. Moisander, Claire Mahaffey, Robert Moore, Beatriz Mouriño-Carballido, Margaret R. Mulholland, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Joseph A. Needoba, Eric J. Raes, Eyal Rahav, Teodoro Ramírez-Cárdenas, Christian Furbo Reeder, Lasse Riemann, Virginie Riou, Julie C. Robidart, Vedula V. S. S. Sarma, Takuya Sato, Himanshu Saxena, Corday Selden, Justin R. Seymour, Dalin Shi, Takuhei Shiozaki, Arvind Singh, Rachel E. Sipler, Jun Sun, Koji Suzuki, Kazutaka Takahashi, Yehui Tan, Weiyi Tang, Jean-Éric Tremblay, Kendra Turk-Kubo, Zuozhu Wen, Angelicque E. White, Samuel T. Wilson, Takashi Yoshida, Jonathan P. Zehr, Run Zhang, Yao Zhang, and Ya-Wei Luo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3673–3709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3673-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3673-2023, 2023
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N2 fixation by marine diazotrophs is an important bioavailable N source to the global ocean. This updated global oceanic diazotroph database increases the number of in situ measurements of N2 fixation rates, diazotrophic cell abundances, and nifH gene copy abundances by 184 %, 86 %, and 809 %, respectively. Using the updated database, the global marine N2 fixation rate is estimated at 223 ± 30 Tg N yr−1, which triplicates that using the original database.
Alban Planchat, Laurent Bopp, Lester Kwiatkowski, and Olivier Torres
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1218, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1218, 2023
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Ocean acidification is likely to impact all stages of the ocean carbonate pump. We show divergent responses of CaCO3 export over this century in Earth system models, with anomalies by 2100 ranging from -74 % to +23 % under a high-emissions scenario. While we confirm the limited impact of carbonate pump anomalies on twenty-first century ocean carbon uptake and acidification, we highlight a potentially abrupt shift in CaCO3 dissolution from deep to subsurface waters beyond 2100.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
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In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
George Manville, Thomas G. Bell, Jane P. Mulcahy, Rafel Simó, Martí Galí, Anoop S. Mahajan, Shrivardhan Hulswar, and Paul R. Halloran
Biogeosciences, 20, 1813–1828, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1813-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1813-2023, 2023
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We present the first global investigation of controls on seawater dimethylsulfide (DMS) spatial variability over scales of up to 100 km. Sea surface height anomalies, density, and chlorophyll a help explain almost 80 % of DMS variability. The results suggest that physical and biogeochemical processes play an equally important role in controlling DMS variability. These data provide independent confirmation that existing parameterisations of seawater DMS concentration use appropriate variables.
Yifan Guan, Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, Scott C. Doney, Christof Petri, Dave Pollard, Debra Wunch, Frank Hase, Hirofumi Ohyama, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Kei Shiomi, Kim Strong, Rigel Kivi, Matthias Buschmann, Nicholas Deutscher, Paul Wennberg, Ralf Sussmann, Voltaire A. Velazco, and Yao Té
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5355–5372, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5355-2023, 2023
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We characterize spatial–temporal patterns of interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric CO2 based on NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2). CO2 variation is strongly impacted by climate events, with higher anomalies during El Nino years. We show high correlation in IAV between space-based and ground-based CO2 from long-term sites. Because OCO-2 has near-global coverage, our paper provides a roadmap to study IAV where in situ observation is sparse, such as open oceans and remote lands.
Clément Haëck, Marina Lévy, Inès Mangolte, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 20, 1741–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1741-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1741-2023, 2023
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Phytoplankton vary in abundance in the ocean over large regions and with the seasons but also because of small-scale heterogeneities in surface temperature, called fronts. Here, using satellite imagery, we found that fronts enhance phytoplankton much more where it is already growing well, but despite large local increases the enhancement for the region is modest (5 %). We also found that blooms start 1 to 2 weeks earlier over fronts. These effects may have implications for ecosystems.
Claire Waelbroeck, Jerry Tjiputra, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Eystein Jansen, Natalia Vázquez Riveiros, Samuel Toucanne, Frédérique Eynaud, Linda Rossignol, Fabien Dewilde, Elodie Marchès, Susana Lebreiro, and Silvia Nave
Clim. Past, 19, 901–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-901-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-901-2023, 2023
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The precise geometry and extent of Atlantic circulation changes that accompanied rapid climate changes of the last glacial period are still unknown. Here, we combine carbon isotopic records from 18 Atlantic sediment cores with numerical simulations and decompose the carbon isotopic change across a cold-to-warm transition into remineralization and circulation components. Our results show that the replacement of southern-sourced by northern-sourced water plays a dominant role below ~ 3000 m depth.
Nadine Goris, Klaus Johannsen, and Jerry Tjiputra
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2095–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2095-2023, 2023
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Climate projections of a high-CO2 future are highly uncertain. A new study provides a novel approach to identifying key regions that dynamically explain the model uncertainty. To yield an accurate estimate of the future North Atlantic carbon uptake, we find that a correct simulation of the upper- and interior-ocean volume transport at 25–30° N is key. However, results indicate that models rarely perform well for both indicators and point towards inconsistencies within the model ensemble.
Sarah Berthet, Julien Jouanno, Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, and William Llovel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 399–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, 2023
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Phytoplankton absorbs the solar radiation entering the ocean surface and contributes to keeping the associated energy in surface waters. This natural effect is either not represented in the ocean component of climate models or its representation is simplified. An incomplete representation of this biophysical interaction affects the way climate models simulate ocean warming, which leads to uncertainties in projections of oceanic emissions of an important greenhouse gas (nitrous oxide).
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
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Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Corentin Clerc, Laurent Bopp, Fabio Benedetti, Meike Vogt, and Olivier Aumont
Biogeosciences, 20, 869–895, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-869-2023, 2023
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Gelatinous zooplankton play a key role in the ocean carbon cycle. In particular, pelagic tunicates, which feed on a wide size range of prey, produce rapidly sinking detritus. Thus, they efficiently transfer carbon from the surface to the depths. Consequently, we added these organisms to a marine biogeochemical model (PISCES-v2) and evaluated their impact on the global carbon cycle. We found that they contribute significantly to carbon export and that this contribution increases with depth.
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, 2023
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For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
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Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Shuang Gao, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Ingo Bethke, Jens Hartmann, Emilio Mayorga, and Christoph Heinze
Biogeosciences, 20, 93–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-93-2023, 2023
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We assess the impact of riverine nutrients and carbon (C) on projected marine primary production (PP) and C uptake using a fully coupled Earth system model. Riverine inputs alleviate nutrient limitation and thus lessen the projected PP decline by up to 0.7 Pg C yr−1 globally. The effect of increased riverine C may be larger than the effect of nutrient inputs in the future on the projected ocean C uptake, while in the historical period increased nutrient inputs are considered the largest driver.
Minjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-236, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Modeling global freshwater solid and nutrient loads, in both magnitude and form, is imperative for understanding emerging eutrophication problems. Such efforts, however, have been challenged by the difficulty of balancing details of freshwater biogeochemical processes with limited knowledge, input and validation datasets. Here we develop a global freshwater model that resolves intertwined algae, solid, and nutrient dynamics and provide performance assessment against measurement-based estimates.
Darren C. McKee, Scott C. Doney, Alice Della Penna, Emmanuel S. Boss, Peter Gaube, Michael J. Behrenfeld, and David M. Glover
Biogeosciences, 19, 5927–5952, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5927-2022, 2022
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As phytoplankton (small, drifting photosynthetic organisms) drift with ocean currents, biomass accumulation rates should be evaluated in a Lagrangian (observer moves with a fluid parcel) as opposed to an Eulerian (observer is stationary) framework. Here, we use profiling floats and surface drifters combined with satellite data to analyse time and length scales of chlorophyll concentrations (a proxy for biomass) and of velocity to quantify how phytoplankton variability is related to water motion.
Leonidas Linardakis, Irene Stemmler, Moritz Hanke, Lennart Ramme, Fatemeh Chegini, Tatiana Ilyina, and Peter Korn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9157–9176, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9157-2022, 2022
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In Earth system modelling, we are facing the challenge of making efficient use of very large machines, with millions of cores. To meet this challenge we will need to employ multi-level and multi-dimensional parallelism. Component concurrency, being a function parallel technique, offers an additional dimension to the traditional data-parallel approaches. In this paper we examine the behaviour of component concurrency and identify the conditions for its optimal application.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Marcello Vichi
The Cryosphere, 16, 4087–4106, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4087-2022, 2022
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The marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the Antarctic is the largest in the world ocean. Antarctic sea ice has large year-to-year changes, and the MIZ represents its most variable component. Processes typical of the MIZ have also been observed in fully ice-covered ocean and are not captured by existing diagnostics. A new statistical method has been shown to address previous limitations in assessing the seasonal cycle of MIZ extent and to provide a probability map of sea ice state in the Southern Ocean.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
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The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Laique M. Djeutchouang, Nicolette Chang, Luke Gregor, Marcello Vichi, and Pedro M. S. Monteiro
Biogeosciences, 19, 4171–4195, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4171-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4171-2022, 2022
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Based on observing system simulation experiments using a mesoscale-resolving model, we found that to significantly improve uncertainties and biases in carbon dioxide (CO2) mapping in the Southern Ocean, it is essential to resolve the seasonal cycle (SC) of the meridional gradient of CO2 through high frequency (at least daily) observations that also span the region's meridional axis. We also showed that the estimated SC anomaly and mean annual CO2 are highly sensitive to seasonal sampling biases.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Sebastian Skatulla, Riesna R. Audh, Andrea Cook, Ehlke Hepworth, Siobhan Johnson, Doru C. Lupascu, Keith MacHutchon, Rutger Marquart, Tommy Mielke, Emmanuel Omatuku, Felix Paul, Tokoloho Rampai, Jörg Schröder, Carina Schwarz, and Marcello Vichi
The Cryosphere, 16, 2899–2925, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2899-2022, 2022
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First-year sea ice has been sampled at the advancing outer edge of the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) along the Good Hope Line. Ice cores were extracted from five pancake ice floes and subsequently analysed for their physical and mechanical properties. Of particular interest was elucidating the transition of ice composition within the MIZ in terms of differences in mechanical stiffness and strength properties as linked to physical and textural characteristics at early-stage ice formation.
Shrivardhan Hulswar, Rafel Simó, Martí Galí, Thomas G. Bell, Arancha Lana, Swaleha Inamdar, Paul R. Halloran, George Manville, and Anoop Sharad Mahajan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2963–2987, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2963-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2963-2022, 2022
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The third climatological estimation of sea surface dimethyl sulfide (DMS) concentrations based on in situ measurements was created (DMS-Rev3). The update includes a much larger input dataset and includes improvements in the data unification, filtering, and smoothing algorithm. The DMS-Rev3 climatology provides more realistic monthly estimates of DMS, and shows significant regional differences compared to past climatologies.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Wayne de Jager and Marcello Vichi
The Cryosphere, 16, 925–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-925-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-925-2022, 2022
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Ice motion can be used to better understand how weather and climate change affect the ice. Antarctic sea ice extent has shown large variability over the observed period, and dynamical features may also have changed. Our method allows for the quantification of rotational motion caused by wind and how this may have changed with time. Cyclonic motion dominates the Atlantic sector, particularly from 2015 onwards, while anticyclonic motion has remained comparatively small and unchanged.
Nicolas Metzl, Claire Lo Monaco, Coraline Leseurre, Céline Ridame, Jonathan Fin, Claude Mignon, Marion Gehlen, and Thi Tuyet Trang Chau
Biogeosciences, 19, 1451–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1451-2022, 2022
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During an oceanographic cruise conducted in January 2020 in the south-western Indian Ocean, we observed very low CO2 concentrations associated with a strong phytoplankton bloom that occurred south-east of Madagascar. This biological event led to a strong regional CO2 ocean sink not previously observed.
Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Marion Gehlen, and Frédéric Chevallier
Biogeosciences, 19, 1087–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1087-2022, 2022
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Air–sea CO2 fluxes and associated uncertainty over the open ocean to coastal shelves are estimated with a new ensemble-based reconstruction of pCO2 trained on observation-based data. The regional distribution and seasonality of CO2 sources and sinks are consistent with those suggested in previous studies as well as mechanisms discussed therein. The ensemble-based uncertainty field allows identifying critical regions where improvements in pCO2 and air–sea CO2 flux estimates should be a priority.
Filippa Fransner, Friederike Fröb, Jerry Tjiputra, Nadine Goris, Siv K. Lauvset, Ingunn Skjelvan, Emil Jeansson, Abdirahman Omar, Melissa Chierici, Elizabeth Jones, Agneta Fransson, Sólveig R. Ólafsdóttir, Truls Johannessen, and Are Olsen
Biogeosciences, 19, 979–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-979-2022, 2022
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Ocean acidification, a direct consequence of the CO2 release by human activities, is a serious threat to marine ecosystems. In this study, we conduct a detailed investigation of the acidification of the Nordic Seas, from 1850 to 2100, by using a large set of samples taken during research cruises together with numerical model simulations. We estimate the effects of changes in different environmental factors on the rate of acidification and its potential effects on cold-water corals.
Thomas Extier, Katharina D. Six, Bo Liu, Hanna Paulsen, and Tatiana Ilyina
Clim. Past, 18, 273–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-273-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-273-2022, 2022
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The role of land–sea fluxes during deglacial flooding in ocean biogeochemistry and CO2 exchange remains poorly constrained due to the lack of climate models that consider such fluxes. We implement the terrestrial organic matter fluxes into the ocean at a transiently changing land–sea interface in MPI-ESM and investigate their effect during the last deglaciation. Most of the terrestrial carbon goes to the ocean during flooding events of Meltwater Pulse 1a, which leads to regional CO2 outgassing.
Hyewon Heather Kim, Jeff S. Bowman, Ya-Wei Luo, Hugh W. Ducklow, Oscar M. Schofield, Deborah K. Steinberg, and Scott C. Doney
Biogeosciences, 19, 117–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-117-2022, 2022
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Heterotrophic marine bacteria are tiny organisms responsible for taking up organic matter in the ocean. Using a modeling approach, this study shows that characteristics (taxonomy and physiology) of bacteria are associated with a subset of ecological processes in the coastal West Antarctic Peninsula region, a system susceptible to global climate change. This study also suggests that bacteria will become more active, in particular large-sized cells, in response to changing climates in the region.
Ingo Bethke, Yiguo Wang, François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Madlen Kimmritz, Filippa Fransner, Annette Samuelsen, Helene Langehaug, Lea Svendsen, Ping-Gin Chiu, Leilane Passos, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Alok Gupta, Jerry Tjiputra, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Julie Solsvik Vågane, Yuanchao Fan, and Tor Eldevik
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7073–7116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021, 2021
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The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It adds data assimilation capability to the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) and has contributed output to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) as part of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We describe the system and evaluate its baseline, reanalysis and prediction performance.
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, 2021
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Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
Paul R. Halloran, Jennifer K. McWhorter, Beatriz Arellano Nava, Robert Marsh, and William Skirving
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6177–6195, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6177-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6177-2021, 2021
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This paper describes the latest version of a simple model for simulating coastal oceanography in response to changes in weather and climate. The latest revision of this model makes scientific improvements but focuses on improvements that allow the model to be run simply at large scales and for long periods of time to explore the implications of (for example) future climate change along large areas of coastline.
Amanda R. Fay, Luke Gregor, Peter Landschützer, Galen A. McKinley, Nicolas Gruber, Marion Gehlen, Yosuke Iida, Goulven G. Laruelle, Christian Rödenbeck, Alizée Roobaert, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4693–4710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021, 2021
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The movement of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to the ocean is estimated using surface ocean carbon (pCO2) measurements and an equation including variables such as temperature and wind speed; the choices of these variables lead to uncertainties. We introduce the SeaFlux ensemble which provides carbon flux maps calculated in a consistent manner, thus reducing uncertainty by using common choices for wind speed and a set definition of "global" coverage.
Hyewon Heather Kim, Ya-Wei Luo, Hugh W. Ducklow, Oscar M. Schofield, Deborah K. Steinberg, and Scott C. Doney
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4939–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4939-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4939-2021, 2021
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The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a rapidly warming region, revealed by multi-decadal observations. Despite the region being data rich, there is a lack of focus on ecosystem model development. Here, we introduce a data assimilation ecosystem model for the WAP region. Experiments by assimilating data from an example growth season capture key WAP features. This study enables us to glue the snapshots from available data sets together to explain the observations in the WAP.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Ocean Sci., 17, 1011–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1011-2021, 2021
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In this work we explored design options for a future Atlantic-scale observational network enabling the release of carbon system estimates by combining data streams from various platforms. We used outputs of a physical–biogeochemical global ocean model at sites of real-world observations to reconstruct surface ocean pCO2 by applying a non-linear feed-forward neural network. The results provide important information for future BGC-Argo deployment, i.e. important regions and the number of floats.
Bo Liu, Katharina D. Six, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 18, 4389–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4389-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4389-2021, 2021
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We incorporate a new representation of the stable carbon isotope 13C in a global ocean biogeochemistry model. The model well reproduces the present-day 13C observations. We find a recent observation-based estimate of the oceanic 13C Suess effect (the decrease in 13C/12C ratio due to uptake of anthropogenic CO2; 13CSE) possibly underestimates 13CSE by 0.1–0.26 per mil. The new model will aid in better understanding the past ocean state via comparison to 13C/12C measurements from sediment cores.
Damien Couespel, Marina Lévy, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 18, 4321–4349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4321-2021, 2021
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An alarming consequence of climate change is the oceanic primary production decline projected by Earth system models. These coarse-resolution models parameterize oceanic eddies. Here, idealized simulations of global warming with increasing resolution show that the decline in primary production in the eddy-resolved simulations is half as large as in the eddy-parameterized simulations. This stems from the high sensitivity of the subsurface nutrient transport to model resolution.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
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In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Anne L. Morée, Jörg Schwinger, Ulysses S. Ninnemann, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Ingo Bethke, and Christoph Heinze
Clim. Past, 17, 753–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-753-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-753-2021, 2021
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This modeling study of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21 000 years ago) ocean explores the biological and physical changes in the ocean needed to satisfy marine proxy records, with a focus on the carbon isotope 13C. We estimate that the LGM ocean may have been up to twice as efficient at sequestering carbon and nutrients at depth as compared to preindustrial times. Our work shows that both circulation and biogeochemical changes must have occurred between the LGM and preindustrial times.
Hanna Lee, Helene Muri, Altug Ekici, Jerry Tjiputra, and Jörg Schwinger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 313–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021, 2021
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We assess how three different geoengineering methods using aerosol affect land ecosystem carbon storage. Changes in temperature and precipitation play a large role in vegetation carbon uptake and storage, but our results show that increased levels of CO2 also play a considerable role. We show that there are unforeseen regional consequences under geoengineering applications, and these consequences should be taken into account in future climate policies before implementing them.
Andrea J. Fassbender, James C. Orr, and Andrew G. Dickson
Biogeosciences, 18, 1407–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1407-2021, 2021
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A decline in upper-ocean pH with time is typically ascribed to ocean acidification. A more quantitative interpretation is often confused by failing to recognize the implications of pH being a logarithmic transform of hydrogen ion concentration rather than an absolute measure. This can lead to an unwitting misinterpretation of pH data. We provide three real-world examples illustrating this and recommend the reporting of both hydrogen ion concentration and pH in studies of ocean chemical change.
Felix Paul, Tommy Mielke, Carina Nisters, Jörg Schröder, Tokoloho Rampai, Sebastian Skatulla, Riesna Audh, Ehlke Hepworth, Marcello Vichi, and Doru C. Lupascu
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-362, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-362, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
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Frazil ice, consisting of loose disc-shaped ice crystals, is the very first sea ice that forms in the annual cycle in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) of the Antarctic. A sufficient number of frazil ice crystals forms the surface grease ice layer taking a fundamental role in the freezing processes in the MIZ. As soon as the ocean waves are damped, a closed ice cover can form. The viscous properties of frazil ice, which have a crucial influence on the growth of sea ice in the MIZ are investigated.
Mark Hague and Marcello Vichi
Biogeosciences, 18, 25–38, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-25-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-25-2021, 2021
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This paper examines the question of what causes the rapid spring growth of microscopic marine algae (phytoplankton) in the ice-covered ocean surrounding Antarctica. One prominent hypothesis proposes that the melting of sea ice is the primary cause, while our results suggest that this is only part of the explanation. In particular, we show that phytoplankton are able to start growing before the sea ice melts appreciably, much earlier than previously thought.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
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The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Toniazzo, Ada Gjermundsen, Lise Seland Graff, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Alok Kumar Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Alf Kirkevåg, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Ingo Bethke, Yuanchao Fan, Jan Griesfeller, Alf Grini, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Oskar Landgren, Johan Liakka, Kine Onsum Moseid, Aleksi Nummelin, Clemens Spensberger, Hui Tang, Zhongshi Zhang, Christoph Heinze, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020
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The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. The temperature and precipitation patterns has improved compared to NorESM1. The model reaches present-day warming levels to within 0.2 °C of observed temperature but with a delayed warming during the late 20th century. Under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the warming in the period of 2090–2099 compared to 1850–1879 reaches 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.9 K.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Claudine Hauri, Cristina Schultz, Katherine Hedstrom, Seth Danielson, Brita Irving, Scott C. Doney, Raphael Dussin, Enrique N. Curchitser, David F. Hill, and Charles A. Stock
Biogeosciences, 17, 3837–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3837-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3837-2020, 2020
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The coastal ecosystem of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) is especially vulnerable to the effects of ocean acidification and climate change. To improve our conceptual understanding of the system, we developed a new regional biogeochemical model setup for the GOA. Model output suggests that bottom water is seasonally high in CO2 between June and January. Such extensive periods of reoccurring high CO2 may be harmful to ocean acidification-sensitive organisms.
Pierre Sepulchre, Arnaud Caubel, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Pascale Braconnot, Patrick Brockmann, Anne Cozic, Yannick Donnadieu, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Victor Estella-Perez, Christian Ethé, Frédéric Fluteau, Marie-Alice Foujols, Guillaume Gastineau, Josefine Ghattas, Didier Hauglustaine, Frédéric Hourdin, Masa Kageyama, Myriam Khodri, Olivier Marti, Yann Meurdesoif, Juliette Mignot, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Jérôme Servonnat, Didier Swingedouw, Sophie Szopa, and Delphine Tardif
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3011–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, 2020
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Our paper describes IPSL-CM5A2, an Earth system model that can be integrated for long (several thousands of years) climate simulations. We describe the technical aspects, assess the model computing performance and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model, by comparing pre-industrial and historical runs to the previous-generation model simulations and to observations. We also present a Cretaceous simulation as a case study to show how the model simulates deep-time paleoclimates.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
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We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Marie Laugié, Yannick Donnadieu, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, J. A. Mattias Green, Laurent Bopp, and François Raisson
Clim. Past, 16, 953–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-953-2020, 2020
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To quantify the impact of major climate forcings on the Cretaceous climate, we use Earth system modelling to progressively reconstruct the Cretaceous state by changing boundary conditions one by one. Between the preindustrial and the Cretaceous simulations, the model simulates a global warming of more than 11°C. The study confirms the primary control exerted by atmospheric CO2 on atmospheric temperatures. Palaeogeographic changes represent the second major contributor to the warming.
Jerry F. Tjiputra, Jörg Schwinger, Mats Bentsen, Anne L. Morée, Shuang Gao, Ingo Bethke, Christoph Heinze, Nadine Goris, Alok Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2393–2431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2393-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2393-2020, 2020
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Ocean biogeochemistry plays an important role in determining the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Earth system models, which are regularly used to study and project future climate change, generally include an ocean biogeochemistry component. Prior to their application, such models are rigorously validated against real-world observations. In this study, we evaluate the ability of the ocean biogeochemistry in the Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 to simulate various datasets.
Thomas L. Frölicher, Luca Ramseyer, Christoph C. Raible, Keith B. Rodgers, and John Dunne
Biogeosciences, 17, 2061–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020, 2020
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Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Joeran Maerz, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Soeren Ahmerkamp, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 17, 1765–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1765-2020, 2020
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Marine micro-algae bind carbon dioxide, CO2. During their decay, snowflake-like aggregates form that sink, remineralize and transport organically bound CO2 to depth; this is referred to as the biological carbon pump. In our model study, we elucidate how variable aggregate composition impacts the global pattern of vertical carbon fluxes. Our mechanistic model approach advances the representation of the global biological carbon pump and promotes a more realistic projection under climate change.
Fabrice Lacroix, Tatiana Ilyina, and Jens Hartmann
Biogeosciences, 17, 55–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-55-2020, 2020
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Contributions of rivers to the oceanic cycling of carbon have been poorly represented in global models until now. Here, we assess the long–term implications of preindustrial riverine loads in the ocean in a novel framework which estimates the loads through a hierarchy of weathering and land–ocean export models. We investigate their impacts for the oceanic biological production and air–sea carbon flux. Finally, we assess the potential incorporation of the framework in an Earth system model.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, and Friedrich A. Burger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019
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Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Renaud Person, Olivier Aumont, Gurvan Madec, Martin Vancoppenolle, Laurent Bopp, and Nacho Merino
Biogeosciences, 16, 3583–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3583-2019, 2019
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is considered a possibly important but largely overlooked source of iron (Fe). Here we explore its fertilization capacity by evaluating the response of marine biogeochemistry to Fe release from icebergs and ice shelves in a global ocean model. Large regional impacts are simulated, leading to only modest primary production and carbon export increases at the scale of the Southern Ocean. Large uncertainties are due to low observational constraints on modeling choices.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Victor Brovkin, Stephan Lorenz, Thomas Raddatz, Tatiana Ilyina, Irene Stemmler, Matthew Toohey, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 16, 2543–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, 2019
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Mechanisms of atmospheric CO2 growth by 20 ppm from 6000 BCE to the pre-industrial period are still uncertain. We apply the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR for two transient simulations of the climate–carbon cycle. An additional process, e.g. carbonate accumulation on shelves, is required for consistency with ice-core CO2 data. Our simulations support the hypothesis that the ocean was a source of CO2 until the late Holocene when anthropogenic CO2 sources started to affect atmospheric CO2.
Jens Terhaar, James C. Orr, Marion Gehlen, Christian Ethé, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 16, 2343–2367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2343-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2343-2019, 2019
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A budget of anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean, the main driver of open-ocean acidification, was constructed for the first time using a high-resolution ocean model. The budget reveals that anthropogenic carbon enters the Arctic Ocean mainly by lateral transport; the air–sea flux plays a minor role. Coarser-resolution versions of the same model, typical of earth system models, store less anthropogenic carbon in the Arctic Ocean and thus underestimate ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean.
Anna Denvil-Sommer, Marion Gehlen, Mathieu Vrac, and Carlos Mejia
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2091–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2091-2019, 2019
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This work is dedicated to a new model that reconstructs the surface ocean partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) over the global ocean on a monthly 1°×1° grid. The model is based on a feed-forward neural network and represents the nonlinear relationships between pCO2 and the ocean drivers. Reconstructed pCO2 has a satisfying accuracy compared to independent observational data and shows a good agreement in seasonal and interannual variability with three existing mapping methods.
William J. Jenkins, Scott C. Doney, Michaela Fendrock, Rana Fine, Toshitaka Gamo, Philippe Jean-Baptiste, Robert Key, Birgit Klein, John E. Lupton, Robert Newton, Monika Rhein, Wolfgang Roether, Yuji Sano, Reiner Schlitzer, Peter Schlosser, and Jim Swift
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 441–454, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-441-2019, 2019
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This paper describes an assembled dataset containing measurements of certain trace substances in the ocean, their distributions, and evolution with time. These substances, called tracers, result from a combination of natural and artificial processes, and their distribution and evolution provide important clues about ocean circulation, mixing, and ventilation. In addition, they give information about the global hydrologic cycle and volcanic and hydrothermal processes.
Katja Fennel, Simone Alin, Leticia Barbero, Wiley Evans, Timothée Bourgeois, Sarah Cooley, John Dunne, Richard A. Feely, Jose Martin Hernandez-Ayon, Xinping Hu, Steven Lohrenz, Frank Muller-Karger, Raymond Najjar, Lisa Robbins, Elizabeth Shadwick, Samantha Siedlecki, Nadja Steiner, Adrienne Sutton, Daniela Turk, Penny Vlahos, and Zhaohui Aleck Wang
Biogeosciences, 16, 1281–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1281-2019, 2019
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We review and synthesize available information on coastal ocean carbon fluxes around North America (NA). There is overwhelming evidence, compiled and discussed here, that the NA coastal margins act as a sink. Our synthesis shows the great diversity in processes driving carbon fluxes in different coastal regions, highlights remaining gaps in observations and models, and discusses current and anticipated future trends with respect to carbon fluxes and acidification.
Ludivine Conte, Sophie Szopa, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 16, 881–902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-881-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-881-2019, 2019
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The ocean is a source of atmospheric carbon monoxide, a key component for the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. We use a global ocean biogeochemistry model to dynamically assess the oceanic CO budget and its emission to the atmosphere at the global scale. The total emissions of CO to the atmosphere are 4.0 Tg C yr−1. The oceanic CO emission maps produced are relevant for use by atmospheric chemical models, especially to study the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere above the remote ocean.
Christoph Heinze and Klaus Hasselmann
Biogeosciences, 16, 751–753, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-751-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-751-2019, 2019
Matthew P. Couldrey, Kevin I. C. Oliver, Andrew Yool, Paul R. Halloran, and Eric P. Achterberg
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-16, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Determining how much carbon dioxide (CO2) the oceans absorb is key to predicting human-caused climate change. A computer model of the ocean shows how the North Atlantic will change up to the end of the century. Year-to-year variations are mostly caused by changes in ocean temperature and seawater chemistry, altering CO2 solubility. By 2100, human emissions cause the biggest changes. The near term changes are physically driven, which may be more predictable than biological changes.
Chuncheng Guo, Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, Mehmet Ilicak, Jerry Tjiputra, Thomas Toniazzo, Jörg Schwinger, and Odd Helge Otterå
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 343–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-343-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-343-2019, 2019
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In this paper, we describe and evaluate a new variant of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). It is a computationally efficient model that is designed for experiments such as paleoclimate, carbon cycle, and large ensemble simulations. The model, with various recent code updates, shows improved climate performance compared to the CMIP5 version of NorESM, while the model resolution remains similar.
Camille Richon, Jean-Claude Dutay, Laurent Bopp, Briac Le Vu, James C. Orr, Samuel Somot, and François Dulac
Biogeosciences, 16, 135–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-135-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-135-2019, 2019
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We evaluate the effects of climate change and biogeochemical forcing evolution on the nutrient and plankton cycles of the Mediterranean Sea for the first time. We use a high-resolution coupled physical and biogeochemical model and perform 120-year transient simulations. The results indicate that changes in external nutrient fluxes and climate change may have synergistic or antagonistic effects on nutrient concentrations, depending on the region and the scenario.
Alberto Alberello, Miguel Onorato, Luke Bennetts, Marcello Vichi, Clare Eayrs, Keith MacHutchon, and Alessandro Toffoli
The Cryosphere, 13, 41–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-41-2019, 2019
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Existing observations do not provide quantitative descriptions of the floe size distribution for pancake ice floes. This is important during the Antarctic winter sea ice expansion, when hundreds of kilometres of ice cover around the Antarctic continent are composed of pancake floes (D = 0.3–3 m). Here, a new set of images from the Antarctic marginal ice zone is used to measure the shape of individual pancakes for the first time and to infer their size distribution.
Augustin Kessler, Eirik Vinje Galaasen, Ulysses Silas Ninnemann, and Jerry Tjiputra
Clim. Past, 14, 1961–1976, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1961-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1961-2018, 2018
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We analyze the changes in oceanic carbon dynamics, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model, by comparing two quasi-equilibrium states: the early, warm Eemian (125 ka) versus the cooler, late Eemian (115 ka). Our results suggest a considerably weaker ocean dissolved inorganic carbon storage at 125 ka, an alteration of the deep-water geometry and ventilation in the South Atlantic, and heterogeneous changes in phosphate availability and carbon export between the Pacific and Atlantic basins.
Hanna Paulsen, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Katharina D. Six, and Irene Stemmler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1283–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1283-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1283-2018, 2018
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We use an Earth system model to study the effects of light absorption by marine cyanobacteria on climate. We find that cyanobacteria have a considerable cooling effect on tropical SST with implications for ocean and atmosphere circulation patterns as well as for climate variability. The results indicate the importance of considering phytoplankton light absorption in climate models, and specifically highlight the role of cyanobacteria due to their regulative effect on tropical SST and climate.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Anne L. Morée, Jörg Schwinger, and Christoph Heinze
Biogeosciences, 15, 7205–7223, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7205-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7205-2018, 2018
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Changes in the distribution of the carbon isotope 13C can be used to study the climate system if the governing processes (ocean circulation and biogeochemistry) are understood. We show the Southern Ocean importance for the global 13C distribution and that changes in 13C can be strongly influenced by biogeochemistry. Interpretation of 13C as a proxy for climate signals needs to take into account the effects of changes in biogeochemistry in addition to changes in ocean circulation.
Julien Palmiéri, Jean-Claude Dutay, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Loïc Houpert, Nicolas Mayot, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-423, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-423, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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In this model study, we highlight the importance of the subsurface phytoplankton dynamic in the Mediterranean sea. Comparing surface chlorophyll annual cycle to vertically integrated one, we show how important the subsurface phytoplankton community is, throughout the Mediterranean. It shows that surface chlorophyll is incomplete and cannot alone be considered a good proxy of the total phytoplankton biomass. Then, we decrypt some deep chlorophyll maximum mechanisms in the low production area.
Virginie Racapé, Patricia Zunino, Herlé Mercier, Pascale Lherminier, Laurent Bopp, Fiz F. Pérèz, and Marion Gehlen
Biogeosciences, 15, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4661-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4661-2018, 2018
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This study of a model–data comparison investigates the relationship between transport, air–sea flux and storage rate of Cant in the North Atlantic Subpolar Ocean over the past 53 years. It reveals the key role played by Central Water for storing Cant in the subtropical region and for supplying Cant into the deep ocean. The Cant transfer to the deep ocean occurred mainly north of the OVIDE section, and just a small fraction was exported to the subtropical gyre within the lower MOC.
Christoph Heinze, Tatiana Ilyina, and Marion Gehlen
Biogeosciences, 15, 3521–3539, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3521-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3521-2018, 2018
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The ocean becomes increasingly acidified through uptake of additional man-made CO2 from the atmosphere. This is impacting ecosystems. In order to find out whether reduced biological production of calcium carbonate shell material of biota is occurring at a large scale, we carried out a model study simulating the changes in oceanic 230Th concentrations with reduced availability of calcium carbonate particles in the water. 230Th can serve as a useful magnifying glass for acidification impacts.
N. Precious Mongwe, Marcello Vichi, and Pedro M. S. Monteiro
Biogeosciences, 15, 2851–2872, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2851-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2851-2018, 2018
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Here we analyze seasonal cycle of CO2 biases in 10 CMIP5 models in the SO. We find two main model biases; exaggeration of primary production such that biologically driven DIC changes mainly regulates FCO2 variability, and an overestimation of the role of solubility, such that changes in temperature dominantly drive FCO2 seasonal changes to an extent of opposing biological CO2 uptake in spring. CMIP5 models show greater zonal homogeneity in the seasonal cycle of FCO2 than observational products.
Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, Heike K. Lotze, Eric D. Galbraith, William Cheung, Manuel Barange, Julia L. Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Matthias Büchner, Catherine Bulman, David A. Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P. Dunne, Jose A. Fernandes, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Alistair J. Hobday, Veronika Huber, Simon Jennings, Miranda Jones, Patrick Lehodey, Jason S. Link, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Tilla Roy, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago Silva, Charles A. Stock, Jeroen Steenbeek, Philip J. Underwood, Jan Volkholz, James R. Watson, and Nicola D. Walker
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1421–1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1421-2018, 2018
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Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial for strengthening future projections. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. We describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project, which brings together the marine ecosystem modelling community to inform long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Giuliana Turi, Michael Alexander, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Antonietta Capotondi, James Scott, Charles Stock, John Dunne, Jasmin John, and Michael Jacox
Ocean Sci., 14, 69–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-69-2018, 2018
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A high-resolution global model was used to study the influence of El Niño/La Niña events on the California Current System (CalCS). The mean surface oxygen (O2) response extends well offshore, where the pH response occurs within ~ 100 km of the coast. The surface O2 (pH) is primarily driven by temperature (upwelling) changes. Below 100 m, anomalously low O2 and low pH occurred during La Niña events near the coast, potentially stressing the ecosystem, but there are large variations between events.
Siv K. Lauvset, Jerry Tjiputra, and Helene Muri
Biogeosciences, 14, 5675–5691, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5675-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5675-2017, 2017
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Solar radiation management (SRM) is suggested as a method to offset global warming and to buy time to reduce emissions. Here we use an Earth system model to project the impact of SRM on future ocean biogeochemistry. This work underscores the complexity of climate impacts on ocean primary production and highlights the fact that changes are driven by an integrated effect of many environmental drivers, which all change in different ways.
Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Nadine Goris, Katharina D. Six, Alf Kirkevåg, Øyvind Seland, Christoph Heinze, and Tatiana Ilyina
Biogeosciences, 14, 3633–3648, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3633-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3633-2017, 2017
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Transient global warming under the high emission scenario RCP8.5 is amplified by up to 6 % if a pH dependency of marine DMS production is assumed. Importantly, this additional warming is not spatially homogeneous but shows a pronounced north–south gradient. Over the Antarctic continent, the additional warming is almost twice the global average. In the Southern Ocean we find a small DMS–climate feedback that counteracts the original reduction of DMS production due to ocean acidification.
Priscilla Le Mézo, Luc Beaufort, Laurent Bopp, Pascale Braconnot, and Masa Kageyama
Clim. Past, 13, 759–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-759-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-759-2017, 2017
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This paper focuses on the relationship between Arabian Sea biological productivity and the Indian summer monsoon in climates of the last 72 kyr. A general circulation model coupled to a biogeochemistry model simulates the changes in productivity and monsoon intensity and pattern. The paradigm stating that a stronger summer monsoon enhances productivity is not always verified in our simulations. This work highlights the importance of considering the monsoon pattern in addition to its intensity.
James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017
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The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
Olivier Aumont, Marco van Hulten, Matthieu Roy-Barman, Jean-Claude Dutay, Christian Éthé, and Marion Gehlen
Biogeosciences, 14, 2321–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2321-2017, 2017
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The marine biological carbon pump is dominated by the vertical transfer of particulate organic carbon (POC) from the surface ocean to its interior. In this study, we explore the impacts of a variable composition of this organic matter using a global ocean biogeochemical model. We show that accounting for a variable lability of POC increases POC concentrations by up to 2 orders of magnitude in the ocean's interior. Furthermore, the amount of carbon that reaches the sediments is twice as large.
Marco van Hulten, Rob Middag, Jean-Claude Dutay, Hein de Baar, Matthieu Roy-Barman, Marion Gehlen, Alessandro Tagliabue, and Andreas Sterl
Biogeosciences, 14, 1123–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1123-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1123-2017, 2017
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We ran a global ocean model to understand manganese (Mn), a biologically essential element. Our model shows that (i) in the deep ocean, dissolved [Mn] is mostly homogeneous ~0.10—0.15 nM. The model reproduces this with a threshold on MnO2 of 25 pM, suggesting a minimal particle concentration is needed before aggregation and removal become efficient.
(ii) The observed distinct hydrothermal signals are produced by assuming both a strong source and a strong removal of Mn near hydrothermal vents.
Teresa Beaty, Christoph Heinze, Taylor Hughlett, and Arne M. E. Winguth
Biogeosciences, 14, 781–797, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-781-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-781-2017, 2017
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In this study HAMOCC2.0 is used to address how mechanisms of oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) expansion respond to changes in CO2 radiative forcing within the model. Atmospheric pCO2 is increased at a rate of 1 % annually until stabilized. Our study suggests that expansion in the Pacific Ocean within the model is controlled largely by changes in particulate organic carbon export (POC). The vertical expansion of the OMZs in the Atlantic and Indian oceans is linked to reduced oxygen solubility.
Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Olivier Boucher, Yann Quilcaille, Maxime Tortora, Laurent Bopp, and Didier Hauglustaine
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 271–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, 2017
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Simple models of the Earth system are useful, especially because of their high computing efficiency. This work describes the OSCAR model: a new simple Earth system model calibrated on state-of-the-art complex models. It will add to the pool of the few simple models currently used by the community, and it will therefore improve the robustness of future studies. Its source code is available upon request.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Veronika Eyring, Peter J. Gleckler, Christoph Heinze, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, V. Balaji, Eric Guilyardi, Sylvie Joussaume, Stephan Kindermann, Bryan N. Lawrence, Gerald A. Meehl, Mattia Righi, and Dean N. Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 813–830, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016, 2016
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We argue that the CMIP community has reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects of model evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently to enable a systematic and rapid performance assessment of the large number of models participating in CMIP, and we announce our intention to implement such a system for CMIP6. At the same time, continuous scientific research is required to develop innovative metrics and diagnostics that help narrowing the spread in climate projections.
Christoph Heinze, Babette A. A. Hoogakker, and Arne Winguth
Clim. Past, 12, 1949–1978, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1949-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1949-2016, 2016
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Sensitivities of sediment tracers to changes in carbon cycle parameters were determined with a global ocean model. The sensitivities were combined with sediment and ice core data. The results suggest a drawdown of the sea surface temperature by 5 °C, an outgassing of the land biosphere by 430 Pg C, and a strengthening of the vertical carbon transfer by biological processes at the Last Glacial Maximum. A glacial change in marine calcium carbonate production can neither be proven nor rejected.
Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul J. Durack, Alistair J. Adcroft, V. Balaji, Claus W. Böning, Eric P. Chassignet, Enrique Curchitser, Julie Deshayes, Helge Drange, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Peter J. Gleckler, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helmuth Haak, Robert W. Hallberg, Patrick Heimbach, Helene T. Hewitt, David M. Holland, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Yoshiki Komuro, John P. Krasting, William G. Large, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Trevor J. McDougall, A. J. George Nurser, James C. Orr, Anna Pirani, Fangli Qiao, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, Anne Marie Treguier, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Petteri Uotila, Maria Valdivieso, Qiang Wang, Michael Winton, and Stephen G. Yeager
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016
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The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This document defines OMIP and details a protocol both for simulating global ocean/sea-ice models and for analysing their output.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
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The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
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How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Jörg Schwinger, Nadine Goris, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Iris Kriest, Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, Mehmet Ilicak, Karen M. Assmann, and Christoph Heinze
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2589–2622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2589-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2589-2016, 2016
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We present an evaluation of the ocean carbon cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model. A re-tuning of the ecosystem parameterisation improves surface tracer fields between versions 1 and 1.2 of the model. Focus is placed on the evaluation of newly implemented parameterisations of the biological carbon pump (i.e. the sinking of particular organic carbon). We find that the model previously underestimated the carbon transport into the deep ocean below 2000 m depth.
Timothée Bourgeois, James C. Orr, Laure Resplandy, Jens Terhaar, Christian Ethé, Marion Gehlen, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 13, 4167–4185, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4167-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4167-2016, 2016
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The global coastal ocean took up 0.1 Pg C yr−1 of anthropogenic carbon during 1993–2012 based on new biogeochemical simulations with an eddying 3-D global model. That is about half of the most recent estimate, an extrapolation based on surface areas. It should not be confused with the continental shelf pump, perhaps 10 times larger, which includes natural as well as anthropogenic carbon. Coastal uptake of anthropogenic carbon is limited by its offshore transport.
Corinne Le Quéré, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Róisín Moriarty, Séverine Alvain, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Sophie Chollet, Clare Enright, Daniel J. Franklin, Richard J. Geider, Sandy P. Harrison, Andrew G. Hirst, Stuart Larsen, Louis Legendre, Trevor Platt, I. Colin Prentice, Richard B. Rivkin, Sévrine Sailley, Shubha Sathyendranath, Nick Stephens, Meike Vogt, and Sergio M. Vallina
Biogeosciences, 13, 4111–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4111-2016, 2016
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We present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types, and use the model to assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton growth.
Charlotte Laufkötter, Meike Vogt, Nicolas Gruber, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Judith Hauck, Jasmin G. John, Ivan D. Lima, Roland Seferian, and Christoph Völker
Biogeosciences, 13, 4023–4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, 2016
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We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. While all models project decreases in export, they differ strongly regarding the drivers. The formation of sinking particles of organic matter is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. Changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for export in some models but of low significance in others.
Italo Epicoco, Silvia Mocavero, Francesca Macchia, Marcello Vichi, Tomas Lovato, Simona Masina, and Giovanni Aloisio
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2115–2128, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2115-2016, 2016
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The present work aims at evaluating the scalability performance of a high-resolution global ocean biogeochemistry model (PELAGOS025) on massive parallel architectures and the benefits in terms of the time-to-solution reduction. The outcome of the analysis demonstrated that the lack of scalability is due to several factors such as the I/O operations, the memory contention, and the load unbalancing due to the memory structure of the biogeochemistry model component.
Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, Laurent Bopp, Laure Resplandy, James C. Orr, Olivier Marti, John P. Dunne, James R. Christian, Scott C. Doney, Tatiana Ilyina, Keith Lindsay, Paul R. Halloran, Christoph Heinze, Joachim Segschneider, Jerry Tjiputra, Olivier Aumont, and Anastasia Romanou
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1827–1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, 2016
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This paper explores how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for ocean biogeochemistry in CMIP5 models contributed to inter-model differences in modeled fields. We show that a link between spin-up duration and skill-score metrics emerges from both individual IPSL-CM5A-LR's results and an ensemble of CMIP5 models. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols constitute a source of inter-model uncertainty which would require more attention in future intercomparison exercises.
Elodie Gutknecht, Guillaume Reffray, Marion Gehlen, Iis Triyulianti, Dessy Berlianty, and Philippe Gaspar
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1523–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1523-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1523-2016, 2016
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An operational ocean forecasting system was developed to monitor the state of the Indonesian seas in terms of circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries (INDESO project). Here we describe the skill assessment of the physical-biogeochemical coupled model configuration. Model results reproduce the main characteristics of biogeochemical tracer distributions in space and time: phasing of chlorophyll bloom, nutrient and oxygen distributions, water mass transformation across the archipelago.
A. Kessler and J. Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-295-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-295-2016, 2016
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The uncertainty of ocean carbon uptake in ESMs is projected to grow 2-fold by the end of the 21st century. We found that models that take up anomalously low (high) CO2 in the Southern Ocean (SO) today project low (high) cumulative CO2 uptake in the 21st century; thus the SO can be used to constrain future global uptake uncertainty. Inter-model spread in the SO carbon sink arises from variations in the pCO2 seasonality, specifically bias in the simulated timing and amplitude of NPP and SST.
S. Sedigh Marvasti, A. Gnanadesikan, A. A. Bidokhti, J. P. Dunne, and S. Ghader
Biogeosciences, 13, 1049–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1049-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1049-2016, 2016
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This study examines challenges in modeling phytoplankton blooms in Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. Blooms in the region show strong modulation both by seasons and in the wintertime by eddies. However getting both of these correct is a challenge in a set of state-of-the-art global Earth System models. It is argued that maintaining a sharp pycnocline may be the key for preventing the wintertime bloom from being too strong and for allowing eddies to modulate upward mixing of nutrients.
J. E. Rheuban, S. Williamson, J. E. Costa, D. M. Glover, R. W. Jakuba, D. C. McCorkle, C. Neill, T. Williams, and S. C. Doney
Biogeosciences, 13, 253–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-253-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-253-2016, 2016
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We analysed 22 years of water quality data collected through a citizen science program focused on Buzzards Bay, MA. We found that summertime water temperatures warmed by nearly 2C and chlorophyll a nearly doubled across Buzzards Bay from 1992-2013. Although water quality worsened over time, nutrient concentrations remained largely the same in many places. Warming or altered rainfall patterns from a changing climate may partially offset benefits achieved by reducing nutrients.
C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, N. Gruber, M. Aita-Noguchi, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, S. C. Doney, J. Dunne, T. Hashioka, J. Hauck, T. Hirata, J. John, C. Le Quéré, I. D. Lima, H. Nakano, R. Seferian, I. Totterdell, M. Vichi, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015
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We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
C. Hauri, S. C. Doney, T. Takahashi, M. Erickson, G. Jiang, and H. W. Ducklow
Biogeosciences, 12, 6761–6779, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6761-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6761-2015, 2015
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Evaluation of a unique 20-year-long time series of inorganic carbon and nutrient observations from the West Antarctic Peninsula region shows that summertime biological productivity and meltwater input drive a large range of surface aragonite saturation states from values < 1 (undersaturated) up to 3.9. Even though we did not detect any statistically significant long-term trends, ongoing ocean acidification and freshwater input may soon induce more unfavorable conditions than seen today.
R. Arruda, P. H. R. Calil, A. A. Bianchi, S. C. Doney, N. Gruber, I. Lima, and G. Turi
Biogeosciences, 12, 5793–5809, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5793-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5793-2015, 2015
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We investigate surface ocean pCO2 and air-sea CO2 fluxes climatological variability through biogeochemical modeling in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Surface ocean pCO2 spatio-temporal variability was found to be controlled mainly by temperature and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC). Biological production, physical transport and solubility are the main controlling processes. With different behaviors on subtropical and subantarctic open ocean, and on inner/outer continental shelves.
R. H. R. Stanley, W. J. Jenkins, S. C. Doney, and D. E. Lott III
Biogeosciences, 12, 5199–5210, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5199-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5199-2015, 2015
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A long-standing enigma in oceanography is the process in which nutrients are supplied to the sunlit zone of the low nutrient regions of the ocean. In this work, we present one approach for quantifying the physical supply of nitrate to the euphotic zone in the Sargasso Sea through the use of gas tracers. We find that the nitrate supplied is more than enough to support the rates of net community production (balance of photosynthesis respiration) observed.
O. Aumont, C. Ethé, A. Tagliabue, L. Bopp, and M. Gehlen
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2465–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015, 2015
P. R. Halloran, B. B. B. Booth, C. D. Jones, F. H. Lambert, D. J. McNeall, I. J. Totterdell, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 4497–4508, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4497-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4497-2015, 2015
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The oceans currently take up around a quarter of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by human activity. While stored in the ocean, this CO2 is not causing global warming. Here we explore high latitude North Atlantic CO2 uptake across a set of climate model simulations, and find that the models show a peak in ocean CO2 uptake around the middle of the century after which time CO2 uptake begins to decline. We identify the causes of this long-term change and interannual variability in the models.
J. Martinez-Rey, L. Bopp, M. Gehlen, A. Tagliabue, and N. Gruber
Biogeosciences, 12, 4133–4148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4133-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4133-2015, 2015
C. Heinze, S. Meyer, N. Goris, L. Anderson, R. Steinfeldt, N. Chang, C. Le Quéré, and D. C. E. Bakker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 327–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, 2015
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Rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by human actions over the past 250 years have raised cause for concern that changes in Earth’s climate system may progress at a much faster pace and larger extent than during the past 20,000 years. Questions that yet need to be answered are what the carbon uptake kinetics of the oceans will be in the future and how the increase in oceanic carbon inventory will affect its ecosystems. Major future ocean carbon research challenges are discussed.
R. Wang, Y. Balkanski, O. Boucher, L. Bopp, A. Chappell, P. Ciais, D. Hauglustaine, J. Peñuelas, and S. Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6247–6270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, 2015
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This study makes a first attempt to estimate the temporal trend of Fe emissions from anthropogenic and natural combustion sources from 1960 to 2007 and the emissions of Fe from mineral dust based on a recent mineralogical database. The new emission inventory is introduced into a global aerosol model. The simulated total Fe and soluble Fe concentrations in surface air as well as the deposition of total Fe are evaluated by observations over major continental and oceanic regions globally.
N. Bouttes, D. M. Roche, V. Mariotti, and L. Bopp
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1563–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1563-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1563-2015, 2015
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We describe the development of a relatively simple climate model to include a model of the carbon cycle in the ocean. The carbon cycle consists of the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, land vegetation and ocean. In the ocean, carbon exists in organic form, such as plankton which grows and dies, and inorganic forms, such as dissolved CO2. With this we will be able to explore long-standing questions such as why the atmospheric CO2 has changed over time during the last million years.
T. Roy, F. Lombard, L. Bopp, and M. Gehlen
Biogeosciences, 12, 2873–2889, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2873-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2873-2015, 2015
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
J. C. Orr, J.-M. Epitalon, and J.-P. Gattuso
Biogeosciences, 12, 1483–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1483-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1483-2015, 2015
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Basic marine carbonate system variables such as pH are often computed from others. Such calculations are made with many public software packages, but their results have never been compared. A new study compares 10 of these packages, quantifying differences, isolating causes, and making recommendations to reduce future discrepancies. This comparison effort has led to more than a 10-fold reduction in differences between packages for some computed variables.
J. C. Orr and J.-M. Epitalon
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 485–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-485-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-485-2015, 2015
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We provide improved routines to model the ocean carbonate system, i.e., to compute ocean pH and related variables from dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity. These routines (1) rely on the fastest available algorithm to solve the alkalinity-pH equation, which converges even under extreme conditions; (2) avoid common model approximations that lead to errors of 3% or more in computed variables; and (3) account for large pressure effects on subsurface pCO2, unlike other packages.
T. Launois, S. Belviso, L. Bopp, C. G. Fichot, and P. Peylin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2295–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2295-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2295-2015, 2015
S. K. Lauvset, N. Gruber, P. Landschützer, A. Olsen, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 12, 1285–1298, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1285-2015, 2015
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This paper utilizes the SOCATv2 data product to calculate surface ocean pH. The pH data are divided into 17 biomes, and a linear regression is used to derive the long-term trend of pH in each biome. The results are consistent with the trends observed at time series stations. The uncertainties are too large for a mechanistic understanding of the driving forces behind the trend, but there are indications that concurrent changes in chemistry create spatial variability.
J. Palmiéri, J. C. Orr, J.-C. Dutay, K. Béranger, A. Schneider, J. Beuvier, and S. Somot
Biogeosciences, 12, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-781-2015, 2015
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Different observational-based estimates of CO2 uptake and resulting
acidification of the Mediterranean Sea vary widely. A new study finds
that even the smallest of those are an upper limit because the approach
used assumes air-sea CO2 equilibrium. Then with a lower limit from new
fine-scale numerical model simulations, the authors bracket
Mediterranean Sea CO2 uptake and acidification rates. They conclude that
its rate of surface acidifcation is much like that for typical ocean
waters.
B. F. Jonsson, S. Doney, J. Dunne, and M. L. Bender
Biogeosciences, 12, 681–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-681-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-681-2015, 2015
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We compare how two global circulation models simulate biological production over the year with observations. Note that models simulate the range of biological production and biomass well but fail with regard to timing and regional structures. This is probably because the physics in the models are wrong, especially vertical processes such as mixed layer dynamics.
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
M. Heinze and T. Ilyina
Clim. Past, 11, 63–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-63-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-63-2015, 2015
C. D. Nevison, M. Manizza, R. F. Keeling, M. Kahru, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, J. Tiputra, T. Ilyina, and B. G. Mitchell
Biogeosciences, 12, 193–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-193-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-193-2015, 2015
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The observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) at five surface monitoring sites are compared to those inferred from the air-sea O2 fluxes of six ocean biogeochemistry models. The simulated air-sea fluxes are translated into APO seasonal cycles using a matrix method that takes into account atmospheric transport model (ATM) uncertainty among 13 different ATMs. Net primary production (NPP), estimated from satellite ocean color data, is also compared to model output.
L. Kwiatkowski, A. Yool, J. I. Allen, T. R. Anderson, R. Barciela, E. T. Buitenhuis, M. Butenschön, C. Enright, P. R. Halloran, C. Le Quéré, L. de Mora, M.-F. Racault, B. Sinha, I. J. Totterdell, and P. M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 11, 7291–7304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, 2014
C. A. Stock, J. P. Dunne, and J. G. John
Biogeosciences, 11, 7125–7135, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7125-2014, 2014
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Climate change projections suggest large regional ocean productivity shifts for mesozooplankton, an important food resource for fish, which are amplified relative to changes in phytoplankton production. Amplification is attributed to changes in planktonic food web dynamics under global warming. Results have implications for regional economies and food security. Improved understanding of the response of plankton food webs to climate change is essential to refine amplification estimates.
M. Gehlen, R. Séférian, D. O. B. Jones, T. Roy, R. Roth, J. Barry, L. Bopp, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, C. Heinze, F. Joos, J. C. Orr, L. Resplandy, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 11, 6955–6967, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, 2014
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This study evaluates potential impacts of pH reductions on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to latest IPCC scenarios.Multi-model projections of pH changes over the seafloor are analysed with reference to a critical threshold based on palaeo-oceanographic studies, contemporary observations and model results. By 2100 under the most severe IPCC CO2 scenario, pH reductions occur over ~23% of deep-sea canyons and ~8% of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as marine protected areas.
K. B. Rodgers, O. Aumont, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, Y. Plancherel, L. Bopp, C. de Boyer Montégut, D. Iudicone, R. F. Keeling, G. Madec, and R. Wanninkhof
Biogeosciences, 11, 4077–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4077-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4077-2014, 2014
J. H. T. Williams, I. J. Totterdell, P. R. Halloran, and P. J. Valdes
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1419–1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1419-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1419-2014, 2014
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
L. Visinelli, S. Masina, M. Vichi, and A. Storto
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-5399-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-5399-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
I. D. Lima, P. J. Lam, and S. C. Doney
Biogeosciences, 11, 1177–1198, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1177-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1177-2014, 2014
Y.-W. Luo, I. D. Lima, D. M. Karl, C. A. Deutsch, and S. C. Doney
Biogeosciences, 11, 691–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-691-2014, 2014
M. Ishii, R. A. Feely, K. B. Rodgers, G.-H. Park, R. Wanninkhof, D. Sasano, H. Sugimoto, C. E. Cosca, S. Nakaoka, M. Telszewski, Y. Nojiri, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, Y. Niwa, P. K. Patra, V. Valsala, H. Nakano, I. Lima, S. C. Doney, E. T. Buitenhuis, O. Aumont, J. P. Dunne, A. Lenton, and T. Takahashi
Biogeosciences, 11, 709–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-709-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-709-2014, 2014
J. Holt, C. Schrum, H. Cannaby, U. Daewel, I. Allen, Y. Artioli, L. Bopp, M. Butenschon, B. A. Fach, J. Harle, D. Pushpadas, B. Salihoglu, and S. Wakelin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
L. Resplandy, J. Boutin, and L. Merlivat
Biogeosciences, 11, 75–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-75-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-75-2014, 2014
K. Misumi, K. Lindsay, J. K. Moore, S. C. Doney, F. O. Bryan, D. Tsumune, and Y. Yoshida
Biogeosciences, 11, 33–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-33-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-33-2014, 2014
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
V. V. S. S. Sarma, A. Lenton, R. M. Law, N. Metzl, P. K. Patra, S. Doney, I. D. Lima, E. Dlugokencky, M. Ramonet, and V. Valsala
Biogeosciences, 10, 7035–7052, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7035-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7035-2013, 2013
M. Vogt, T. Hashioka, M. R. Payne, E. T. Buitenhuis, C. Le Quéré, S. Alvain, M. N. Aita, L. Bopp, S. C. Doney, T. Hirata, I. Lima, S. Sailley, and Y. Yamanaka
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-17193-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-17193-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
T. Hashioka, M. Vogt, Y. Yamanaka, C. Le Quéré, E. T. Buitenhuis, M. N. Aita, S. Alvain, L. Bopp, T. Hirata, I. Lima, S. Sailley, and S. C. Doney
Biogeosciences, 10, 6833–6850, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6833-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6833-2013, 2013
E. T. Buitenhuis, M. Vogt, R. Moriarty, N. Bednaršek, S. C. Doney, K. Leblanc, C. Le Quéré, Y.-W. Luo, C. O'Brien, T. O'Brien, J. Peloquin, R. Schiebel, and C. Swan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 227–239, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-227-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-227-2013, 2013
A. Lenton, B. Tilbrook, R. M. Law, D. Bakker, S. C. Doney, N. Gruber, M. Ishii, M. Hoppema, N. S. Lovenduski, R. J. Matear, B. I. McNeil, N. Metzl, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, P. M. S. Monteiro, C. Rödenbeck, C. Sweeney, and T. Takahashi
Biogeosciences, 10, 4037–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4037-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4037-2013, 2013
C. Le Quéré, R. J. Andres, T. Boden, T. Conway, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, G. Marland, G. P. Peters, G. R. van der Werf, A. Ahlström, R. M. Andrew, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, S. C. Doney, C. Enright, P. Friedlingstein, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, C. Jourdain, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, J. Schwinger, S. Sitch, B. D. Stocker, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, 2013
C. Beaulieu, S. A. Henson, Jorge L. Sarmiento, J. P. Dunne, S. C. Doney, R. R. Rykaczewski, and L. Bopp
Biogeosciences, 10, 2711–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2711-2013, 2013
R. Séférian, L. Bopp, D. Swingedouw, and J. Servonnat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 109–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-109-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-109-2013, 2013
S. Khatiwala, T. Tanhua, S. Mikaloff Fletcher, M. Gerber, S. C. Doney, H. D. Graven, N. Gruber, G. A. McKinley, A. Murata, A. F. Ríos, and C. L. Sabine
Biogeosciences, 10, 2169–2191, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2169-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2169-2013, 2013
R. Wanninkhof, G. -H. Park, T. Takahashi, C. Sweeney, R. Feely, Y. Nojiri, N. Gruber, S. C. Doney, G. A. McKinley, A. Lenton, C. Le Quéré, C. Heinze, J. Schwinger, H. Graven, and S. Khatiwala
Biogeosciences, 10, 1983–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
O. D. Andrews, N. L. Bindoff, P. R. Halloran, T. Ilyina, and C. Le Quéré
Biogeosciences, 10, 1799–1813, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1799-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1799-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
J. F. Tjiputra, C. Roelandt, M. Bentsen, D. M. Lawrence, T. Lorentzen, J. Schwinger, Ø. Seland, and C. Heinze
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 301–325, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-301-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-301-2013, 2013
J. Segschneider, A. Beitsch, C. Timmreck, V. Brovkin, T. Ilyina, J. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, K. D. Six, and D. Zanchettin
Biogeosciences, 10, 669–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, 2013
U. Schuster, G. A. McKinley, N. Bates, F. Chevallier, S. C. Doney, A. R. Fay, M. González-Dávila, N. Gruber, S. Jones, J. Krijnen, P. Landschützer, N. Lefèvre, M. Manizza, J. Mathis, N. Metzl, A. Olsen, A. F. Rios, C. Rödenbeck, J. M. Santana-Casiano, T. Takahashi, R. Wanninkhof, and A. J. Watson
Biogeosciences, 10, 607–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-607-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-607-2013, 2013
V. Krumins, M. Gehlen, S. Arndt, P. Van Cappellen, and P. Regnier
Biogeosciences, 10, 371–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-371-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-371-2013, 2013
C. Hauri, N. Gruber, M. Vogt, S. C. Doney, R. A. Feely, Z. Lachkar, A. Leinweber, A. M. P. McDonnell, M. Munnich, and G.-K. Plattner
Biogeosciences, 10, 193–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-193-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-193-2013, 2013
J. G. John, A. M. Fiore, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, and J. P. Dunne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12021–12036, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12021-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
The effect of forest cover changes on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015
Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models
Coherency and time lag analyses between MODIS vegetation indices and climate across forest and grasslands in European temperate zone
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the increase in ocean acidity extremes in the northeastern Pacific
Direct foliar phosphorus uptake from wildfire ash
Anthropogenic climate change drives non-stationary phytoplankton internal variability
Mapping the Future Afforestation Distribution of China Constrained by National Afforestation Plan and Climate Change
The response of wildfire regimes to Last Glacial Maximum carbon dioxide and climate
Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control
Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming
Alkalinity biases in CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for simulated CO2 drawdown via artificial alkalinity enhancement
Experiments of the efficacy of tree ring blue intensity as a climate proxy in central and western China
Burned area and carbon emissions across northwestern boreal North America from 2001–2019
Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions
The potential of an increased deciduous forest fraction to mitigate the effects of heat extremes in Europe
Ideas and perspectives: Alleviation of functional limitations by soil organisms is key to climate feedbacks from arctic soils
A comparison of the climate and carbon cycle effects of carbon removal by afforestation and an equivalent reduction in fossil fuel emissions
Stability of alkalinity in ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) approaches – consequences for durability of CO2 storage
Ideas and perspectives: Land–ocean connectivity through groundwater
Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections
Reconciling different approaches to quantifying land surface temperature impacts of afforestation using satellite observations
Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Reviews and syntheses: A framework to observe, understand and project ecosystem response to environmental change in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean
Acidification impacts and acclimation potential of Caribbean benthic foraminifera assemblages in naturally discharging low-pH water
Monitoring vegetation condition using microwave remote sensing: the standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI)
Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models
Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change
Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations
Acidification, deoxygenation, and nutrient and biomass declines in a warming Mediterranean Sea
Ocean alkalinity enhancement – avoiding runaway CaCO3 precipitation during quick and hydrated lime dissolution
Assessment of the impacts of biological nitrogen fixation structural uncertainty in CMIP6 earth system models
Soil carbon loss in warmed subarctic grasslands is rapid and restricted to topsoil
The European forest carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices
The influence of mesoscale climate drivers on hypoxia in a fjord-like deep coastal inlet and its potential implications regarding climate change: examining a decade of water quality data
Contrasting responses of phytoplankton productivity between coastal and offshore surface waters in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to short-term seawater acidification
Modeling interactions between tides, storm surges, and river discharges in the Kapuas River delta
The application of dendrometers to alpine dwarf shrubs – a case study to investigate stem growth responses to environmental conditions
Climate, land cover and topography: essential ingredients in predicting wetland permanence
Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia
Evaluating the dendroclimatological potential of blue intensity on multiple conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand
Anthropogenic CO2-mediated freshwater acidification limits survival, calcification, metabolism, and behaviour in stress-tolerant freshwater crustaceans
Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes
On the influence of erect shrubs on the irradiance profile in snow
Tolerance of tropical marine microphytobenthos exposed to elevated irradiance and temperature
Persistent impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbance regimes in Europe
Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century
Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2
Effects of elevated CO2 and extreme climatic events on forage quality and in vitro rumen fermentation in permanent grassland
Cushion bog plant community responses to passive warming in southern Patagonia
Blue carbon stocks and exchanges along the California coast
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
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The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
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Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Kinga Kulesza and Agata Hościło
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3017, 2023
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We present coherence and time lags in spectral response of three individual vegetation types in European temperate zone to the influencing meteorological factors and teleconnection indices, in the period 2002–2022. Vegetation condition in broadleaved forest, coniferous forest and pastures was measured with MODIS NDVI and EVI, and the coherence between NDVI/EVI and meteorological elements was described using the methods of Wavelet Coherence and Pearson’s linear correlation with time lag.
Flora Desmet, Matthias Münnich, and Nicolas Gruber
Biogeosciences, 20, 5151–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5151-2023, 2023
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Ocean acidity extremes in the upper 250 m depth of the northeastern Pacific rapidly increase with atmospheric CO2 rise, which is worrisome for marine organisms that rapidly experience pH levels outside their local environmental conditions. Presented research shows the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in this increase between regions and depths. In particular, the subsurface increase is substantially slowed down by the presence of mesoscale eddies, often not resolved in Earth system models.
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, and Avner Gross
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2617, 2023
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Ash particles from wildfires are rich in phosphorus (P), a crucial nutrient that constitutes a limiting factor in 43 % of the world's land ecosystems. We hypothesized that wildfire ash could directly contribute to plant nutrition. We found that fire ash application boosts the growth of plants, but the only way plants can uptake P from fire ash is through the foliar uptake pathway, and not through the roots. The fertilization impact of fire ash was maintained also under elevated levels of CO2.
Geneviève W. Elsworth, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Thomas M. Marchitto, and Sarah Schlunegger
Biogeosciences, 20, 4477–4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4477-2023, 2023
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Anthropogenic climate change will influence marine phytoplankton over the coming century. Here, we quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on marine phytoplankton internal variability using an Earth system model ensemble and identify a decline in global phytoplankton biomass variance with warming. Our results suggest that climate mitigation efforts that account for marine phytoplankton changes should also consider changes in phytoplankton variance driven by anthropogenic warming.
Shuaifeng Song, Xuezhen Zhang, and Xiaodong Yan
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-177, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
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We mapped the distribution of future potential afforestation area based on future high-resolution climate data and climate-vegetation model. After considering national afforestation policy and climate change, we found that the future potential afforestation area is mainly located around and to the east of the Hu Line. This study can provide a dataset for exploring the effects of future afforestation, and this method can guide designing future gridded afforestation regions for other countries.
Olivia Haas, Iain Colin Prentice, and Sandy P. Harrison
Biogeosciences, 20, 3981–3995, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023, 2023
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We quantify the impact of CO2 and climate on global patterns of burnt area, fire size, and intensity under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions using three climate scenarios. Climate change alone did not produce the observed LGM reduction in burnt area, but low CO2 did through reducing vegetation productivity. Fire intensity was sensitive to CO2 but strongly affected by changes in atmospheric dryness. Low CO2 caused smaller fires; climate had the opposite effect except in the driest scenario.
Tianfei Xue, Ivy Frenger, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-171, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
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Phytoplankton plays a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Claudia Hinrichs, Peter Köhler, Christoph Völker, and Judith Hauck
Biogeosciences, 20, 3717–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3717-2023, 2023
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This study evaluated the alkalinity distribution in 14 climate models and found that most models underestimate alkalinity at the surface and overestimate it in the deeper ocean. It highlights the need for better understanding and quantification of processes driving alkalinity distribution and calcium carbonate dissolution and the importance of accounting for biases in model results when evaluating potential ocean alkalinity enhancement experiments.
Yonghong Zheng, Huanfeng Shen, Rory Abernethy, and Rob Wilson
Biogeosciences, 20, 3481–3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3481-2023, 2023
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Investigations in central and western China show that tree ring inverted latewood intensity expresses a strong positive relationship with growing-season temperatures, indicating exciting potential for regions south of 30° N that are traditionally not targeted for temperature reconstructions. Earlywood BI also shows good potential to reconstruct hydroclimate parameters in some humid areas and will enhance ring-width-based hydroclimate reconstructions in the future.
Stefano Potter, Sol Cooperdock, Sander Veraverbeke, Xanthe Walker, Michelle C. Mack, Scott J. Goetz, Jennifer Baltzer, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Arden Burrell, Catherine Dieleman, Nancy French, Stijn Hantson, Elizabeth E. Hoy, Liza Jenkins, Jill F. Johnstone, Evan S. Kane, Susan M. Natali, James T. Randerson, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ellen Whitman, Elizabeth Wiggins, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 2785–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2785-2023, 2023
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Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m resolution. We estimate 2.37 Mha burned annually between 2001–2019 over the domain, emitting 79.3 Tg C per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 kg C m−2. We found larger-fire years were generally associated with greater mean combustion. The burned-area and combustion datasets described here can be used for local- to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
V. Rachel Chimuka, Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Biogeosciences, 20, 2283–2299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023, 2023
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We propose a new method to quantify carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions. Our method isolates the lagged carbon cycle response to preceding positive emissions from the response to negative emissions. Our findings suggest that feedback parameters calculated with the novel approach are larger than those calculated with the conventional approach whereby carbon cycle inertia is not corrected for, with implications for the effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in reducing CO2 levels.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
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A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Gesche Blume-Werry, Jonatan Klaminder, Eveline J. Krab, and Sylvain Monteux
Biogeosciences, 20, 1979–1990, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1979-2023, 2023
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Northern soils store a lot of carbon. Most research has focused on how this carbon storage is regulated by cold temperatures. However, it is soil organisms, from minute bacteria to large earthworms, that decompose the organic material. Novel soil organisms from further south could increase decomposition rates more than climate change does and lead to carbon losses. We therefore advocate for including soil organisms when predicting the fate of soil functions in warming northern ecosystems.
Koramanghat Unnikrishnan Jayakrishnan and Govindasamy Bala
Biogeosciences, 20, 1863–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1863-2023, 2023
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Afforestation and reducing fossil fuel emissions are two important mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of global warming. Our work shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions is relatively more effective than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, understanding of the processes that govern the biophysical effects of afforestation should be improved before considering our results for climate policy.
Jens Hartmann, Niels Suitner, Carl Lim, Julieta Schneider, Laura Marín-Samper, Javier Arístegui, Phil Renforth, Jan Taucher, and Ulf Riebesell
Biogeosciences, 20, 781–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-781-2023, 2023
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CO2 can be stored in the ocean via increasing alkalinity of ocean water. Alkalinity can be created via dissolution of alkaline materials, like limestone or soda. Presented research studies boundaries for increasing alkalinity in seawater. The best way to increase alkalinity was found using an equilibrated solution, for example as produced from reactors. Adding particles for dissolution into seawater on the other hand produces the risk of losing alkalinity and degassing of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, Amir Haroon, Hermann W. Bange, Ercan Erkul, Marion Jegen, Nils Moosdorf, Jens Schneider von Deimling, Christian Berndt, Michael Ernst Böttcher, Jasper Hoffmann, Volker Liebetrau, Ulf Mallast, Gudrun Massmann, Aaron Micallef, Holly A. Michael, Hendrik Paasche, Wolfgang Rabbel, Isaac Santos, Jan Scholten, Katrin Schwalenberg, Beata Szymczycha, Ariel T. Thomas, Joonas J. Virtasalo, Hannelore Waska, and Bradley A. Weymer
Biogeosciences, 20, 647–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-647-2023, 2023
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Groundwater flows at the land–ocean transition and the extent of freshened groundwater below the seafloor are increasingly relevant in marine sciences, both because they are a highly uncertain term of biogeochemical budgets and due to the emerging interest in the latter as a resource. Here, we discuss our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to natural and human-induced environmental changes.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
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Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
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This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
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The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Julian Gutt, Stefanie Arndt, David Keith Alan Barnes, Horst Bornemann, Thomas Brey, Olaf Eisen, Hauke Flores, Huw Griffiths, Christian Haas, Stefan Hain, Tore Hattermann, Christoph Held, Mario Hoppema, Enrique Isla, Markus Janout, Céline Le Bohec, Heike Link, Felix Christopher Mark, Sebastien Moreau, Scarlett Trimborn, Ilse van Opzeeland, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Fokje Schaafsma, Katharina Teschke, Sandra Tippenhauer, Anton Van de Putte, Mia Wege, Daniel Zitterbart, and Dieter Piepenburg
Biogeosciences, 19, 5313–5342, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5313-2022, 2022
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Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Daniel François, Adina Paytan, Olga Maria Oliveira de Araújo, Ricardo Tadeu Lopes, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Biogeosciences, 19, 5269–5285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5269-2022, 2022
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Our analysis revealed that under the two most conservative acidification projections foraminifera assemblages did not display considerable changes. However, a significant decrease in species richness was observed when pH decreases to 7.7 pH units, indicating adverse effects under high-acidification scenarios. A micro-CT analysis revealed that calcified tests of Archaias angulatus were of lower density in low pH, suggesting no acclimation capacity for this species.
Leander Moesinger, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Robin van der Schalie, Tracy Scanlon, Richard de Jeu, and Wouter Dorigo
Biogeosciences, 19, 5107–5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5107-2022, 2022
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The standardized vegetation optical depth index (SVODI) can be used to monitor the vegetation condition, such as whether the vegetation is unusually dry or wet. SVODI has global coverage, spans the past 3 decades and is derived from multiple spaceborne passive microwave sensors of that period. SVODI is based on a new probabilistic merging method that allows the merging of normally distributed data even if the data are not gap-free.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
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Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
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The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Negar Vakilifard, Richard G. Williams, Philip B. Holden, Katherine Turner, Neil R. Edwards, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 19, 4249–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, 2022
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To remain within the Paris climate agreement, there is an increasing need to develop and implement carbon capture and sequestration techniques. The global climate benefits of implementing negative emission technologies over the next century are assessed using an Earth system model covering a wide range of plausible climate states. In some model realisations, there is continued warming after emissions cease. This continued warming is avoided if negative emissions are incorporated.
Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon
Biogeosciences, 19, 4035–4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, 2022
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Future projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the 21st century show different levels of decline in nutrients, oxygen and biomasses and an acidification of the water column. The signal intensity is stronger under RCP8.5 and in the eastern Mediterranean. Under RCP4.5, after the second half of the 21st century, biogeochemical variables show a recovery of the values observed at the beginning of the investigated period.
Charly A. Moras, Lennart T. Bach, Tyler Cyronak, Renaud Joannes-Boyau, and Kai G. Schulz
Biogeosciences, 19, 3537–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022, 2022
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This research presents the first laboratory results of quick and hydrated lime dissolution in natural seawater. These two minerals are of great interest for ocean alkalinity enhancement, a strategy aiming to decrease atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Following the dissolution of these minerals, we identified several hurdles and presented ways to avoid them or completely negate them. Finally, we proceeded to various simulations in today’s oceans to implement the strategy at its highest potential.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Sönke Zaehle, and Pierre Friedlingstein
Biogeosciences, 19, 3491–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022, 2022
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Biological nitrogen fixation is the largest natural input of new nitrogen onto land. Earth system models mainly represent global total terrestrial biological nitrogen fixation within observational uncertainties but overestimate tropical fixation. The model range of increase in biological nitrogen fixation in the SSP3-7.0 scenario is 3 % to 87 %. While biological nitrogen fixation is a key source of new nitrogen, its predictive power for net primary productivity in models is limited.
Niel Verbrigghe, Niki I. W. Leblans, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Sara Vicca, Chao Fang, Lucia Fuchslueger, Jennifer L. Soong, James T. Weedon, Christopher Poeplau, Cristina Ariza-Carricondo, Michael Bahn, Bertrand Guenet, Per Gundersen, Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir, Thomas Kätterer, Zhanfeng Liu, Marja Maljanen, Sara Marañón-Jiménez, Kathiravan Meeran, Edda S. Oddsdóttir, Ivika Ostonen, Josep Peñuelas, Andreas Richter, Jordi Sardans, Páll Sigurðsson, Margaret S. Torn, Peter M. Van Bodegom, Erik Verbruggen, Tom W. N. Walker, Håkan Wallander, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 19, 3381–3393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, 2022
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In subarctic grassland on a geothermal warming gradient, we found large reductions in topsoil carbon stocks, with carbon stocks linearly declining with warming intensity. Most importantly, however, we observed that soil carbon stocks stabilised within 5 years of warming and remained unaffected by warming thereafter, even after > 50 years of warming. Moreover, in contrast to the large topsoil carbon losses, subsoil carbon stocks remained unaffected after > 50 years of soil warming.
Roberto Pilli, Ramdane Alkama, Alessandro Cescatti, Werner A. Kurz, and Giacomo Grassi
Biogeosciences, 19, 3263–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, 2022
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To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to −450 Mt CO2 yr-1. Our study highlights that under current management practices (i.e. excluding any policy scenario) the forest C sink of the EU27 member states and the UK may decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr-1 in 2050. The expected impacts of future climate change, however, add a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with forest management.
Johnathan Daniel Maxey, Neil David Hartstein, Aazani Mujahid, and Moritz Müller
Biogeosciences, 19, 3131–3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3131-2022, 2022
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Deep coastal inlets are important sites for regulating land-based organic pollution before it enters coastal oceans. This study focused on how large climate forces, rainfall, and river flow impact organic loading and oxygen conditions in a coastal inlet in Tasmania. Increases in rainfall were linked to higher organic loading and lower oxygen in basin waters. Finally we observed a significant correlation between the Southern Annular Mode and oxygen concentrations in the system's basin waters.
Guang Gao, Tifeng Wang, Jiazhen Sun, Xin Zhao, Lifang Wang, Xianghui Guo, and Kunshan Gao
Biogeosciences, 19, 2795–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2795-2022, 2022
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After conducting large-scale deck-incubation experiments, we found that seawater acidification (SA) increased primary production (PP) in coastal waters but reduced it in pelagic zones, which is mainly regulated by local pH, light intensity, salinity, and community structure. In future oceans, SA combined with decreased upward transports of nutrients may synergistically reduce PP in pelagic zones.
Joko Sampurno, Valentin Vallaeys, Randy Ardianto, and Emmanuel Hanert
Biogeosciences, 19, 2741–2757, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2741-2022, 2022
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This study is the first assessment to evaluate the interactions between river discharges, tides, and storm surges and how they can drive compound flooding in the Kapuas River delta. We successfully created a realistic hydrodynamic model whose domain covers the land–sea continuum using a wetting–drying algorithm in a data-scarce environment. We then proposed a new method to delineate compound flooding hazard zones along the river channels based on the maximum water level profiles.
Svenja Dobbert, Roland Pape, and Jörg Löffler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1933–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1933-2022, 2022
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Understanding how vegetation might respond to climate change is especially important in arctic–alpine ecosystems, where major shifts in shrub growth have been observed. We studied how such changes come to pass and how future changes might look by measuring hourly variations in the stem diameter of dwarf shrubs from one common species. From these data, we are able to discern information about growth mechanisms and can thus show the complexity of shrub growth and micro-environment relations.
Jody Daniel, Rebecca C. Rooney, and Derek T. Robinson
Biogeosciences, 19, 1547–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1547-2022, 2022
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The threat posed by climate change to prairie pothole wetlands is well documented, but gaps remain in our ability to make meaningful predictions about how prairie pothole wetlands will respond. We integrate aspects of topography, land cover/land use and climate to model the permanence class of tens of thousands of wetlands at the western edge of the Prairie Pothole Region.
Ádám T. Kocsis, Qianshuo Zhao, Mark J. Costello, and Wolfgang Kiessling
Biogeosciences, 18, 6567–6578, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6567-2021, 2021
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Biodiversity is under threat from the effects of global warming, and assessing the effects of climate change on areas of high species richness is of prime importance to conservation. Terrestrial and freshwater rich spots have been and will be less affected by climate change than other areas. However, marine rich spots of biodiversity are expected to experience more pronounced warming.
Rob Wilson, Kathy Allen, Patrick Baker, Gretel Boswijk, Brendan Buckley, Edward Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Dan Druckenbrod, Anthony Fowler, Margaux Grandjean, Paul Krusic, and Jonathan Palmer
Biogeosciences, 18, 6393–6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6393-2021, 2021
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We explore blue intensity (BI) – a low-cost method for measuring ring density – to enhance palaeoclimatology in Australasia. Calibration experiments, using several conifer species from Tasmania and New Zealand, model 50–80 % of the summer temperature variance. The implications of these results have profound consequences for high-resolution paleoclimatology in Australasia, as the speed and cheapness of BI generation could lead to a step change in our understanding of past climate in the region.
Alex R. Quijada-Rodriguez, Pou-Long Kuan, Po-Hsuan Sung, Mao-Ting Hsu, Garett J. P. Allen, Pung Pung Hwang, Yung-Che Tseng, and Dirk Weihrauch
Biogeosciences, 18, 6287–6300, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6287-2021, 2021
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Anthropogenic CO2 is chronically acidifying aquatic ecosystems. We aimed to determine the impact of future freshwater acidification on the physiology and behaviour of an important aquaculture crustacean, Chinese mitten crabs. We report that elevated freshwater CO2 levels lead to impairment of calcification, locomotor behaviour, and survival and reduced metabolism in this species. Results suggest that present-day calcifying invertebrates could be heavily affected by freshwater acidification.
Junrong Zha and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 18, 6245–6269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021, 2021
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This study incorporated moss into an extant biogeochemistry model to simulate the role of moss in carbon dynamics in the Arctic. The interactions between higher plants and mosses and their competition for energy, water, and nutrients are considered in our study. We found that, compared with the previous model without moss, the new model estimated a much higher carbon accumulation in the region during the last century and this century.
Maria Belke-Brea, Florent Domine, Ghislain Picard, Mathieu Barrere, and Laurent Arnaud
Biogeosciences, 18, 5851–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5851-2021, 2021
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Expanding shrubs in the Arctic change snowpacks into a mix of snow, impurities and buried branches. Snow is a translucent medium into which light penetrates and gets partly absorbed by branches or impurities. Measurements of light attenuation in snow in Northern Quebec, Canada, showed (1) black-carbon-dominated light attenuation in snowpacks without shrubs and (2) buried branches influence radiation attenuation in snow locally, leading to melting and pockets of large crystals close to branches.
Sazlina Salleh and Andrew McMinn
Biogeosciences, 18, 5313–5326, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5313-2021, 2021
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The benthic diatom communities in Tanjung Rhu, Malaysia, were regularly exposed to high light and temperature variability during the tidal cycle, resulting in low photosynthetic efficiency. We examined the impact of high temperatures on diatoms' photosynthetic capacities, and temperatures beyond 50 °C caused severe photoinhibition. At the same time, those diatoms exposed to temperatures of 40 °C did not show any sign of photoinhibition.
Cornelius Senf and Rupert Seidl
Biogeosciences, 18, 5223–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5223-2021, 2021
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Europe was affected by an extreme drought in 2018. We show that this drought has increased forest disturbances across Europe, especially central and eastern Europe. Disturbance levels observed 2018–2020 were the highest on record for 30 years. Increased forest disturbances were correlated with low moisture and high atmospheric water demand. The unprecedented impacts of the 2018 drought on forest disturbances demonstrate an urgent need to adapt Europe’s forests to a hotter and drier future.
Jessica L. McCarty, Juha Aalto, Ville-Veikko Paunu, Steve R. Arnold, Sabine Eckhardt, Zbigniew Klimont, Justin J. Fain, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Ari Venäläinen, Nadezhda M. Tchebakova, Elena I. Parfenova, Kaarle Kupiainen, Amber J. Soja, Lin Huang, and Simon Wilson
Biogeosciences, 18, 5053–5083, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021, 2021
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Fires, including extreme fire seasons, and fire emissions are more common in the Arctic. A review and synthesis of current scientific literature find climate change and human activity in the north are fuelling an emerging Arctic fire regime, causing more black carbon and methane emissions within the Arctic. Uncertainties persist in characterizing future fire landscapes, and thus emissions, as well as policy-relevant challenges in understanding, monitoring, and managing Arctic fire regimes.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
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Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Vincent Niderkorn, Annette Morvan-Bertrand, Aline Le Morvan, Angela Augusti, Marie-Laure Decau, and Catherine Picon-Cochard
Biogeosciences, 18, 4841–4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4841-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4841-2021, 2021
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Climate change can change vegetation characteristics in grasslands with a potential impact on forage chemical composition and quality, as well as its use by ruminants. Using controlled conditions mimicking a future climatic scenario, we show that forage quality and ruminant digestion are affected in opposite ways by elevated atmospheric CO2 and an extreme event (heat wave, severe drought), indicating that different factors of climate change have to be considered together.
Verónica Pancotto, David Holl, Julio Escobar, María Florencia Castagnani, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 18, 4817–4839, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4817-2021, 2021
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We investigated the response of a wetland plant community to elevated temperature conditions in a cushion bog on Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. We measured carbon dioxide fluxes at experimentally warmed plots and at control plots. Warmed plant communities sequestered between 55 % and 85 % less carbon dioxide than untreated control cushions over the main growing season. Our results suggest that even moderate future warming could decrease the carbon sink function of austral cushion bogs.
Melissa A. Ward, Tessa M. Hill, Chelsey Souza, Tessa Filipczyk, Aurora M. Ricart, Sarah Merolla, Lena R. Capece, Brady C O'Donnell, Kristen Elsmore, Walter C. Oechel, and Kathryn M. Beheshti
Biogeosciences, 18, 4717–4732, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4717-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4717-2021, 2021
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Salt marshes and seagrass meadows ("blue carbon" habitats) can sequester and store high levels of organic carbon (OC), helping to mitigate climate change. In California blue carbon sediments, we quantified OC storage and exchange between these habitats. We find that (1) these salt marshes store about twice as much OC as seagrass meadows do and (2), while OC from seagrass meadows is deposited into neighboring salt marshes, little of this material is sequestered as "long-term" carbon.
Cited articles
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Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09712, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051607, 2012.
Aumont, O. and Bopp, L.: Globalizing results from ocean in situ iron fertilization studies, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, 1–15, 2006.
Bates, N. R., Best, M. H. P., Neely, K., Garley, R., Dickson, A. G., and Johnson, R. J.: Detecting anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake and ocean acidification in the North Atlantic Ocean, Biogeosciences, 9, 2509–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-2509-2012, 2012.
Behrenfeld, M. J., O'Malley, R. T., Siegel, D. A., McClain, C. R., Sarmiento, J. L., Feldman, G. C., Milligan, A. J., Falkowski, P. G., Letelier, R. M., and Boss, E. S.: Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity, Nature, 444, 752–755, 2006.
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