Biogeosciences www.biogeosciences.net 1726-4170 1726-4189 5 6 2008 10.5194/bg-5-1493-2008 http://www.biogeosciences.net/5/1493/2008/ http://www.biogeosciences.net/5/1493/2008/bg-5-1493-2008.html http://www.biogeosciences.net/5/1493/2008/bg-5-1493-2008.pdf 1493 1504 2008-11-04 Changes of the potential distribution area of French Mediterranean forests under global warming C. Gaucherel gaucherel@cirad.fr J. Guiot L. Misson INRA, UMR AMAP, TA A.51/PS2, 34398, Montpellier, France CEREGE – UMR 6635 CNRS Aix-Marseille Université – BP 80, 13545 Aix-en-Provence Cedex 4, France CEFE – UMR 5175 CNRS, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify significant changes between present and future. The influence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantified. We modeled species growth with the help of a process-based model (MAIDEN), previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE – MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production. Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. 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