Biogeosciences
www.biogeosciences.net
1726-4170
1726-4189
4
4
2007
10.5194/bg-4-481-2007
http://www.biogeosciences.net/4/481/2007/
http://www.biogeosciences.net/4/481/2007/bg-4-481-2007.html
http://www.biogeosciences.net/4/481/2007/bg-4-481-2007.pdf
481
492
2007-07-06
Assessing the potential long-term increase of oceanic fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> uptake due to CO<sub>2</sub>-calcification feedback
A. Ridgwell
andy@seao2.org
I. Zondervan
J. C. Hargreaves
J. Bijma
T. M. Lenton
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS UK
Biogeosciences, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Frontier Research Center for Global Change, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
Plankton manipulation experiments exhibit a wide range of sensitivities of
biogenic calcification to simulated anthropogenic acidification of the
ocean, with the "lab rat" of planktic calcifiers, <i>Emiliania huxleyi</i> apparently not
representative of calcification generally. We assess the implications of
this observational uncertainty by creating an ensemble of realizations of an
Earth system model that encapsulates a comparable range of uncertainty in
calcification response to ocean acidification. We predict that a substantial
reduction in marine carbonate production is possible in the future, with
enhanced ocean CO<sub>2</sub> sequestration across the model ensemble driving a
4–13% reduction in the year 3000 atmospheric fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> burden.
Concurrent changes in ocean circulation and surface temperatures in the
model contribute about one third to the increase in CO<sub>2</sub> uptake. We find
that uncertainty in the predicted strength of CO<sub>2</sub>-calcification
feedback seems to be dominated by the assumption as to which species of
calcifier contribute most to carbonate production in the open ocean.
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