Articles | Volume 10, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Feb 2013
Research article |
| 04 Feb 2013
Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)
J. R. Melton
ARVE Group, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland
now at: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada
R. Wania
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution (UMR 5554, CNRS), Université Montpellier 2, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34090 Montpellier, France
Lanser Strasse 30, 6080 Igls, Austria
E. L. Hodson
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Switzerland
now at: AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow, Office of Climate Change Policy and Technology, US Department of Energy, USA
B. Poulter
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment, CNRS-CEA, UVSQ, Gif-sur Yvette, France
B. Ringeval
VU University Amsterdam, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
BRIDGE, School of Geographical Sciences, Univerity of Bristol, UK
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment, CNRS-CEA, UVSQ, Gif-sur Yvette, France
R. Spahni
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute & Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland
T. Bohn
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, USA
C. A. Avis
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Canada
D. J. Beerling
Dept. of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
G. Chen
International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
A. V. Eliseev
Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University. Kazan, Russia
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
S. N. Denisov
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
P. O. Hopcroft
BRIDGE, School of Geographical Sciences, Univerity of Bristol, UK
D. P. Lettenmaier
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, USA
W. J. Riley
Earth Sciences Division (ESD) Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, USA
J. S. Singarayer
BRIDGE, School of Geographical Sciences, Univerity of Bristol, UK
Z. M. Subin
Earth Sciences Division (ESD) Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, USA
International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
S. Zürcher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute & Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland
V. Brovkin
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
P. M. van Bodegom
Department of Ecological Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
T. Kleinen
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lehigh University, USA
J. O. Kaplan
ARVE Group, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland
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Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
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Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
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Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 631–663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-631-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-631-2018, 2018
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Rudra K. Shrestha, Vivek K. Arora, Joe R. Melton, and Laxmi Sushama
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Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Joe R. Melton, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, and Kelly E. McCusker
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2761–2783, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2761-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2761-2017, 2017
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Climate models have large grid cells due to the computational cost of running these complex models. Within grid cells like these, the land surface can vary dramatically impacting the exchange of water, carbon, and energy between the atmosphere and land. We use a technique to determine natural clusters of high-resolution soil texture within large grid cells and use them as inputs to our model. We find relatively low sensitivity to soil texture changes except in very dry regions and peatlands.
Yuanqiao Wu, Ed Chan, Joe R. Melton, and Diana L. Verseghy
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-152, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-152, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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Peatlands are an important component of the carbon cycle that is expected to change under climate change, but accurate information on the global distribution of peatlands is presently unavailable. We use a machine-learning method to create a map of global peatland extent suitable for use in an Earth system model. For areas where data exists we find excellent agreement with observations and our method has greater skill than solely using soil datasets to estimate peatland coverage.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
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Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Yuanqiao Wu, Diana L. Verseghy, and Joe R. Melton
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2639–2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2639-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2639-2016, 2016
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About 20 % of the carbon stored in global soils occurs in peatlands. Warmer and drier conditions will both tend to stimulate the decomposition of peat and increase CO2 and methane emissions, thus potentially enhancing the warming trend. It is important that this feedback mechanism be captured in climate models. This work integrated peatlands into the Canadian Earth system model (CanESM) for global climate predictions and represent a valuable enhancement to the family of Earth system models.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Scot M. Miller, Roisin Commane, Joe R. Melton, Arlyn E. Andrews, Joshua Benmergui, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Anna M. Michalak, Colm Sweeney, and Doug E. J. Worthy
Biogeosciences, 13, 1329–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1329-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1329-2016, 2016
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We use atmospheric data from the US and Canada to examine seven wetland methane flux estimates. Relative to existing estimates, we find a methane source that is smaller in magnitude with a broader seasonal cycle. Furthermore, we estimate the largest fluxes over the Hudson Bay Lowlands, a spatial distribution that differs from commonly used remote sensing estimates of wetland location.
J. R. Melton and V. K. Arora
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-323-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-323-2016, 2016
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We use a modified form of the Lotka–Volterra (L–V) equations to simulate competition between plant functional types (PFTs) on a global scale with the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) version 2.0. Our modified L–V simulations compare well against observation-based records of PFT distributions, while simulations with unmodified L–V equations show significant biases. We include an appendix detailing all aspects of CTEM v. 2.0.
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
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We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
J. R. Melton, R. K. Shrestha, and V. K. Arora
Biogeosciences, 12, 1151–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1151-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1151-2015, 2015
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Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in seasonally dry Amazon forests varies
greatly between sites with similar precipitation patterns. We ran CLASS-CTEM at two LBA Amazon sites (Tapajós 83km & Jarú Reserve) that exhibit opposite seasonal NEP cycles despite reasonably similar meteorological conditions. We find the influence of soil texture and depth, through soil moisture, on seasonal patterns of GPP and, especially, heterotrophic respiration is important for correctly simulating NEP seasonality.
J. B. Fisher, M. Sikka, W. C. Oechel, D. N. Huntzinger, J. R. Melton, C. D. Koven, A. Ahlström, M. A. Arain, I. Baker, J. M. Chen, P. Ciais, C. Davidson, M. Dietze, B. El-Masri, D. Hayes, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, P. E. Levy, M. R. Lomas, B. Poulter, D. Price, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, H. Tian, E. Tomelleri, H. Verbeeck, N. Viovy, R. Wania, N. Zeng, and C. E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 11, 4271–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, 2014
J. R. Melton and V. K. Arora
Biogeosciences, 11, 1021–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1021-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1021-2014, 2014
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
Salvatore R. Curasi, Joe R. Melton, Elyn R. Humphreys, Txomin Hermosilla, and Michael A. Wulder
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2683–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2683-2024, 2024
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Canadian forests are responding to fire, harvest, and climate change. Models need to quantify these processes and their carbon and energy cycling impacts. We develop a scheme that, based on satellite records, represents fire, harvest, and the sparsely vegetated areas that these processes generate. We evaluate model performance and demonstrate the impacts of disturbance on carbon and energy cycling. This work has implications for land surface modeling and assessing Canada’s terrestrial C cycle.
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
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The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
Qing Ying, Benjamin Poulter, Jennifer D. Watts, Kyle A. Arndt, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Lori Bruhwiler, Youmi Oh, Brendan M. Rogers, Susan M. Natali, Hilary Sullivan, Luke D. Schiferl, Clayton Elder, Olli Peltola, Annett Bartsch, Amanda Armstrong, Ankur R. Desai, Eugénie Euskirchen, Mathias Göckede, Bernhard Lehner, Mats B. Nilsson, Matthias Peichl, Oliver Sonnentag, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Torsten Sachs, Aram Kalhori, Masahito Ueyama, and Zhen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-84, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We present daily methane fluxes of northern wetlands at 10-km resolution during 2016–2022 (WetCH4) derived from a novel machine-learning framework with improved accuracy. We estimated an average annual CH4 emissions of 20.8 ±2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1. Emissions were intensified in 2016, 2020, and 2022, with the largest interannual variations coming from West Siberia. Continued, all-season tower observations and improved soil moisture products are needed for future improvement of CH4 upscaling.
Lingbo Li, Hong-Yi Li, Guta Abeshu, Jinyun Tang, L. Ruby Leung, Chang Liao, Zeli Tan, Hanqin Tian, Peter Thornton, and Xiaojuan Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-43, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We have developed a new map that reveals how organic carbon from soil leaches into headwater streams over the contiguous United States. We use advanced artificial intelligence techniques and a massive amount of data, including observations at over 2,500 gauges and a wealth of climate and environmental information. The map is a critical step in understanding and predicting how carbon moves through our environment, hence a useful tool for tackling climate challenges.
Jinyun Tang and William J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 21, 1061–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1061-2024, 2024
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A chemical kinetics theory is proposed to explain the non-monotonic relationship between temperature and biochemical rates. It incorporates the observed thermally reversible enzyme denaturation that is ensured by the ceaseless thermal motion of molecules and ions in an enzyme solution and three well-established theories: (1) law of mass action, (2) diffusion-limited chemical reaction theory, and (3) transition state theory.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernadello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488, 2024
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We apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach with Earth System Models to provide simulations in which all ESMs converge at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the CMIP scenarios. This new type of target-based emission-driven simulations offers a more coherent assessment across ESMs for studying both the carbon cycle and impacts under climate stabilization.
Colin Gareth Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben Booth, Peter Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene Hewitt, Hazel Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm Roberts, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Froelicher, Neven Fuckar, Matthew Gidden, Helge Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, Jose Manuel Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason A. Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Melia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-453, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming ~6 years (i.e. to 2030). Advances in these areas will increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, as well as deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as the 7th IPCC Assessment Report and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake under the Paris Climate Agreement.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, 2024
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This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations. We successfully identified problems of global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues that should be solved in the latest generation of models, land use change CO2 emissions.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
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This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3081, 2024
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The terrestrial water cycle over the Sahara/Sahel is closed by implementing a new model of endorheic lakes into a climate model. A factor analysis of mid-Holocene simulations shows that dynamic lakes and dynamic vegetation individually cause a precipitation increase over northern Africa that is, in the sum, larger than the precipitation increase caused by interacting lakes and vegetation dynamics. Thus, the lake-vegetation interaction causes a relative drying response over the entire Sahel.
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Mueller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, 2024
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Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in Northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions and up-scaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions and up-scaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Misa Ishizawa, Douglas Chan, Doug Worthy, Elton Chan, Felix Vogel, Joe R. Melton, and Vivek K. Arora
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2550, 2023
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
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Methane (CH4) emissions in Canada for 2007–2017 were estimated using Canada’s surface Greenhouse Gas measurements. The estimated decadal emissions show no significant trend, but the uncertainty is reduced over time as more measurements became available. We find notable features in the CH4 emissions, such as a positive correlation with surface air temperature in summer. The measurement network across Canada could monitor future CH4 emission changes and compliance for climate mitigation goals.
Maria Val Martin, Elena Blanc-Betes, Ka Ming Fung, Euripides P. Kantzas, Ilsa B. Kantola, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Lyla L. Taylor, Louisa K. Emmons, William R. Wieder, Noah J. Planavsky, Michael D. Masters, Evan H. DeLucia, Amos P. K. Tai, and David J. Beerling
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5783–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, 2023
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Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a CO2 removal strategy that involves applying crushed rocks (e.g., basalt) to agricultural soils. However, unintended processes within the N cycle due to soil pH changes may affect the climate benefits of C sequestration. ERW could drive changes in soil emissions of non-CO2 GHGs (N2O) and trace gases (NO and NH3) that may affect air quality. We present a new improved N cycling scheme for the land model (CLM5) to evaluate ERW effects on soil gas N emissions.
Hanqin Tian, Naiqing Pan, Rona L. Thompson, Josep G. Canadell, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Pierre Regnier, Eric A. Davidson, Michael Prather, Philippe Ciais, Marilena Muntean, Shufen Pan, Wilfried Winiwarter, Sönke Zaehle, Feng Zhou, Robert B. Jackson, Hermann W. Bange, Sarah Berthet, Zihao Bian, Daniele Bianchi, Alexander F. Bouwman, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Geoffrey Dutton, Minpeng Hu, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Angela Landolfi, Ronny Lauerwald, Ya Li, Chaoqun Lu, Taylor Maavara, Manfredi Manizza, Dylan B. Millet, Jens Mühle, Prabir K. Patra, Glen P. Peters, Xiaoyu Qin, Peter Raymond, Laure Resplandy, Judith A. Rosentreter, Hao Shi, Qing Sun, Daniele Tonina, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Junjie Wang, Kelley C. Wells, Luke M. Western, Chris Wilson, Jia Yang, Yuanzhi Yao, Yongfa You, and Qing Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-401, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-401, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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The atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas 265 times more potent than carbon dioxide, has increased by 25 % since the pre-industrial period, with the highest observed growth rate in both 2020 and 2021. This rapid growth rate was primarily due to a 40 % increase in anthropogenic emissions since 1980. The observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded the worst-case climate scenario, underscoring the urgency to reduce anthropogenic N2O emissions.
István Dunkl, Nicole Lovenduski, Alessio Collalti, Vivek K. Arora, Tatiana Ilyina, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 3523–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, 2023
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Despite differences in the reproduction of gross primary productivity (GPP) by Earth system models (ESMs), ESMs have similar predictability of the global carbon cycle. We found that, although GPP variability originates from different regions and is driven by different climatic variables across the ESMs, the ESMs rely on the same mechanisms to predict their own GPP. This shows that the predictability of the carbon cycle is limited by our understanding of variability rather than predictability.
Bo Qu, Alexandre Roy, Joe R. Melton, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Youngryel Ryu, Matteo Detto, and Oliver Sonnentag
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1167, 2023
Preprint archived
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Accurately simulating photosynthesis and evapotranspiration challenges terrestrial biosphere models across North America’s boreal biome, in part due to uncertain representation of the maximum rate of photosynthetic carboxylation (Vcmax). This study used forest stand scale observations in an optimization framework to improve Vcmax values for representative vegetation types. Several stand characteristics well explained spatial Vcmax variability and were useful to improve boreal forest modelling.
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
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We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1162, 2023
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Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon-climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
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In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
Thomas Kleinen, Sergey Gromov, Benedikt Steil, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 19, 1081–1099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023, 2023
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We modelled atmospheric methane continuously from the last glacial maximum to the present using a state-of-the-art Earth system model. Our model results compare well with reconstructions from ice cores and improve our understanding of a very intriguing period of Earth system history, the deglaciation, when atmospheric methane changed quickly and strongly. Deglacial methane changes are driven by emissions from tropical wetlands, with wetlands in high northern latitudes being secondary.
Philipp de Vrese, Goran Georgievski, Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco, Dirk Notz, Tobias Stacke, Norman Julius Steinert, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, 2023
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The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone. We used an adapted version of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to show that differences in the representation of the soil hydrology in permafrost-affected regions could help explain a large part of this inter-model spread and have pronounced impacts on important elements of Earth systems as far to the south as the tropics.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
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This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Kamal Nyaupane, Umakant Mishra, Feng Tao, Kyongmin Yeo, William J. Riley, Forrest M. Hoffman, and Sagar Gautam
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-50, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for BG
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Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon climate feedbacks. We used machine learning to develop and compare predictive relationships in observations and ESMs. We found different relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks in observations and ESMs. SOC predictions in ESMs may be improved by representing the functional relationships of environmental controllers consistent with observations.
Giacomo Grassi, Clemens Schwingshackl, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Alessandro Cescatti, Philippe Ciais, Sandro Federici, Pierre Friedlingstein, Werner A. Kurz, Maria J. Sanz Sanchez, Raúl Abad Viñas, Ramdane Alkama, Selma Bultan, Guido Ceccherini, Stefanie Falk, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Anu Korosuo, Joana Melo, Matthew J. McGrath, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Anna A. Romanovskaya, Simone Rossi, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, 2023
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Striking differences exist in estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes between the national greenhouse gas inventories and the IPCC assessment reports. These differences hamper an accurate assessment of the collective progress under the Paris Agreement. By implementing an approach that conceptually reconciles land-use CO2 flux from national inventories and the global models used by the IPCC, our study is an important step forward for increasing confidence in land-use CO2 flux estimates.
Brendan Byrne, David F. Baker, Sourish Basu, Michael Bertolacci, Kevin W. Bowman, Dustin Carroll, Abhishek Chatterjee, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Noel Cressie, David Crisp, Sean Crowell, Feng Deng, Zhu Deng, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Manvendra K. Dubey, Sha Feng, Omaira E. García, David W. T. Griffith, Benedikt Herkommer, Lei Hu, Andrew R. Jacobson, Rajesh Janardanan, Sujong Jeong, Matthew S. Johnson, Dylan B. A. Jones, Rigel Kivi, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Shamil Maksyutov, John B. Miller, Scot M. Miller, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Tomohiro Oda, Christopher W. O'Dell, Young-Suk Oh, Hirofumi Ohyama, Prabir K. Patra, Hélène Peiro, Christof Petri, Sajeev Philip, David F. Pollard, Benjamin Poulter, Marine Remaud, Andrew Schuh, Mahesh K. Sha, Kei Shiomi, Kimberly Strong, Colm Sweeney, Yao Té, Hanqin Tian, Voltaire A. Velazco, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Thorsten Warneke, John R. Worden, Debra Wunch, Yuanzhi Yao, Jeongmin Yun, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 963–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, 2023
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Changes in the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems result in emissions and removals of CO2. These can be driven by anthropogenic activities (e.g., deforestation), natural processes (e.g., fires) or in response to rising CO2 (e.g., CO2 fertilization). This paper describes a dataset of CO2 emissions and removals derived from atmospheric CO2 observations. This pilot dataset informs current capabilities and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.
Xiaoyong Li, Hanqin Tian, Chaoqun Lu, and Shufen Pan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1005–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1005-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1005-2023, 2023
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We reconstructed land use and land cover (LULC) history for the conterminous United States during 1630–2020 by integrating multi-source data. The results show the widespread expansion of cropland and urban land and the shrinking of natural vegetation in the past four centuries. Forest planting and regeneration accelerated forest recovery since the 1920s. The datasets can be used to assess the LULC impacts on the ecosystem's carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles.
Fa Li, Qing Zhu, William J. Riley, Lei Zhao, Li Xu, Kunxiaojia Yuan, Min Chen, Huayi Wu, Zhipeng Gui, Jianya Gong, and James T. Randerson
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 869–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-869-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-869-2023, 2023
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We developed an interpretable machine learning model to predict sub-seasonal and near-future wildfire-burned area over African and South American regions. We found strong time-lagged controls (up to 6–8 months) of local climate wetness on burned areas. A skillful use of such time-lagged controls in machine learning models results in highly accurate predictions of wildfire-burned areas; this will also help develop relevant early-warning and management systems for tropical wildfires.
Andrew F. Feldman, Zhen Zhang, Yasuko Yoshida, Abhishek Chatterjee, and Benjamin Poulter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 1545–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1545-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-1545-2023, 2023
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We investigate the conditions under which satellite-retrieved column carbon dioxide concentrations directly hold information about surface carbon dioxide fluxes, without the use of inversion models. We show that OCO-2 column carbon dioxide retrievals, available at 1–3 month latency, can be used to directly detect and roughly estimate extreme biospheric CO2 fluxes. As such, these OCO-2 retrievals have value for rapidly monitoring extreme conditions in the terrestrial biosphere.
Jed O. Kaplan and Katie Hong-Kiu Lau
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5665–5670, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5665-2022, 2022
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Global lightning strokes are recorded continuously by a network of ground-based stations. We consolidated these point observations into a map form and provide these as electronic datasets for research purposes. Here we extend our dataset to include lightning observations from 2021.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Hanqin Tian, Zihao Bian, Hao Shi, Xiaoyu Qin, Naiqing Pan, Chaoqun Lu, Shufen Pan, Francesco N. Tubiello, Jinfeng Chang, Giulia Conchedda, Junguo Liu, Nathaniel Mueller, Kazuya Nishina, Rongting Xu, Jia Yang, Liangzhi You, and Bowen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4551–4568, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4551-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4551-2022, 2022
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Nitrogen is one of the critical nutrients for growth. Evaluating the change in nitrogen inputs due to human activity is necessary for nutrient management and pollution control. In this study, we generated a historical dataset of nitrogen input to land at the global scale. This dataset consists of nitrogen fertilizer, manure, and atmospheric deposition inputs to cropland, pasture, and rangeland at high resolution from 1860 to 2019.
Wen Wen, Joris Timmermans, Qi Chen, and Peter M. van Bodegom
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4537–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4537-2022, 2022
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A novel approach for evaluating individual and combined impacts of drought and salinity in real-life settings is proposed using Sentinel-2. We found that crop responses to drought and salinity differ between growth stages. Compared to salinity, crop growth is most strongly affected by drought stress and is, in general, further exacerbated when co-occurring with salinity stress. Our approach facilitates a way to monitor crop health under multiple stresses with potential large-scale applications.
Negar Vakilifard, Richard G. Williams, Philip B. Holden, Katherine Turner, Neil R. Edwards, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 19, 4249–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, 2022
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To remain within the Paris climate agreement, there is an increasing need to develop and implement carbon capture and sequestration techniques. The global climate benefits of implementing negative emission technologies over the next century are assessed using an Earth system model covering a wide range of plausible climate states. In some model realisations, there is continued warming after emissions cease. This continued warming is avoided if negative emissions are incorporated.
Basil Andrew Stansfield Davis, Marc Fasel, Jed O. Kaplan, Emmanuele Russo, and Ariane Burke
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-59, 2022
Revised manuscript under review for CP
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During the last Ice Age 21 k BP, Northern Europe was covered in ice and steppe, and forests were restricted to sheltered regions to the south. However, the composition and extent of forest and its associated climate remains unclear, with models indicating more forest north of the Alps than suggested by the data. A new compilation of pollen records with improved dating suggests greater agreement with model climate, but still suggests models over estimate forest cover especially in the west.
Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Victor Brovkin, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1897–1914, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, 2022
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Using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we quantify contributions of the Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ice sheets to the strength of Saharan greening during late Quaternary African humid periods (AHPs). Orbital forcing is found as the dominant factor, having a critical threshold and accounting for most of the changes in the vegetation response. However, results suggest that GHGs may influence the orbital threshold and thus may play a pivotal role for future AHPs.
Daniel J. Jacob, Daniel J. Varon, Daniel H. Cusworth, Philip E. Dennison, Christian Frankenberg, Ritesh Gautam, Luis Guanter, John Kelley, Jason McKeever, Lesley E. Ott, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Qu, Andrew K. Thorpe, John R. Worden, and Riley M. Duren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9617–9646, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9617-2022, 2022
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We review the capability of satellite observations of atmospheric methane to quantify methane emissions on all scales. We cover retrieval methods, precision requirements, inverse methods for inferring emissions, source detection thresholds, and observations of system completeness. We show that current instruments already enable quantification of regional and national emissions including contributions from large point sources. Coverage and resolution will increase significantly in coming years.
Niel Verbrigghe, Niki I. W. Leblans, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Sara Vicca, Chao Fang, Lucia Fuchslueger, Jennifer L. Soong, James T. Weedon, Christopher Poeplau, Cristina Ariza-Carricondo, Michael Bahn, Bertrand Guenet, Per Gundersen, Gunnhildur E. Gunnarsdóttir, Thomas Kätterer, Zhanfeng Liu, Marja Maljanen, Sara Marañón-Jiménez, Kathiravan Meeran, Edda S. Oddsdóttir, Ivika Ostonen, Josep Peñuelas, Andreas Richter, Jordi Sardans, Páll Sigurðsson, Margaret S. Torn, Peter M. Van Bodegom, Erik Verbruggen, Tom W. N. Walker, Håkan Wallander, and Ivan A. Janssens
Biogeosciences, 19, 3381–3393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3381-2022, 2022
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In subarctic grassland on a geothermal warming gradient, we found large reductions in topsoil carbon stocks, with carbon stocks linearly declining with warming intensity. Most importantly, however, we observed that soil carbon stocks stabilised within 5 years of warming and remained unaffected by warming thereafter, even after > 50 years of warming. Moreover, in contrast to the large topsoil carbon losses, subsoil carbon stocks remained unaffected after > 50 years of soil warming.
Joe R. Melton, Ed Chan, Koreen Millard, Matthew Fortier, R. Scott Winton, Javier M. Martín-López, Hinsby Cadillo-Quiroz, Darren Kidd, and Louis V. Verchot
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4709–4738, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4709-2022, 2022
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Peat-ML is a high-resolution global peatland extent map generated using machine learning techniques. Peatlands are important in the global carbon and water cycles, but their extent is poorly known. We generated Peat-ML using drivers of peatland formation including climate, soil, geomorphology, and vegetation data, and we train the model with regional peatland maps. Our accuracy estimation approaches suggest Peat-ML is of similar or higher quality than other available peatland mapping products.
Colm Sweeney, Abhishek Chatterjee, Sonja Wolter, Kathryn McKain, Robert Bogue, Stephen Conley, Tim Newberger, Lei Hu, Lesley Ott, Benjamin Poulter, Luke Schiferl, Brad Weir, Zhen Zhang, and Charles E. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6347–6364, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6347-2022, 2022
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The Arctic Carbon Atmospheric Profiles (Arctic-CAP) project demonstrates the utility of aircraft profiles for independent evaluation of model-derived emissions and uptake of atmospheric CO2, CH4, and CO from land and ocean. Comparison with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling system suggests that fluxes of CO2 are very consistent with observations, while those of CH4 have some regional and seasonal biases, and that CO comparison is complicated by transport errors.
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, 2022
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Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
Shakirudeen Lawal, Stephen Sitch, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hao-Wei Wey, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hanqin Tian, and Bruce Hewitson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2045–2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, 2022
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To investigate the impacts of drought on vegetation, which few studies have done due to various limitations, we used the leaf area index as proxy and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to simulate drought impacts because the models use observationally derived climate. We found that the semi-desert biome responds strongly to drought in the summer season, while the tropical forest biome shows a weak response. This study could help target areas to improve drought monitoring and simulation.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Ruqi Yang, Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Stephen Sitch, Wenhan Tang, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Qixiang Cai, Di Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Hanqin Tian, Atul K. Jain, and Pengfei Han
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 833–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, 2022
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We comprehensively investigate historical GPP trends based on five kinds of GPP datasets and analyze the causes for any discrepancies among them. Results show contrasting behaviors between modeled and satellite-based GPP trends, and their inconsistencies are likely caused by the contrasting performance between satellite-derived and modeled leaf area index (LAI). Thus, the uncertainty in satellite-based GPP induced by LAI undermines its role in assessing the performance of DGVM simulations.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Zitely A. Tzompa-Sosa, Marielle Saunois, Chunjing Qiu, Chang Tan, Taochun Sun, Piyu Ke, Yanan Cui, Katsumasa Tanaka, Xin Lin, Rona L. Thompson, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Atul K. Jain, Xiaoming Xu, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Paul I. Palmer, Thomas Lauvaux, Alexandre d'Aspremont, Clément Giron, Antoine Benoit, Benjamin Poulter, Jinfeng Chang, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Giacomo Grassi, Clément Albergel, Francesco N. Tubiello, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1639–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, 2022
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In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, we proposed a method for reconciling the results of global atmospheric inversions with data from UNFCCC national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs). Here, based on a new global harmonized database that we compiled from the UNFCCC NGHGIs and a comprehensive framework presented in this study to process the results of inversions, we compared their results of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Frederieke Miesner, Paul P. Overduin, Matteo Puglini, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 16, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, 2022
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Thawing permafrost releases carbon to the atmosphere, enhancing global warming. Part of the permafrost soils have been flooded by rising sea levels since the last ice age, becoming subsea permafrost (SSPF). The SSPF is less studied than the part on land. In this study we use a global model to obtain rates of thawing of SSPF under different future climate scenarios until the year 3000. After the year 2100 the scenarios strongly diverge, closely connected to the eventual disappearance of sea ice.
Weilin Huang, Peter M. van Bodegom, Toni Viskari, Jari Liski, and Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia
Biogeosciences, 19, 1469–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1469-2022, 2022
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This work focuses on one of the essential pathways of mycorrhizal impact on C cycles: the mediation of plant litter decomposition. We present a model based on litter chemical quality which precludes a conclusive examination of mycorrhizal impacts on soil C. It improves long-term decomposition predictions and advances our understanding of litter decomposition dynamics. It creates a benchmark in quantitatively examining the impacts of plant–microbe interactions on soil C dynamics.
Qing Zhu, Fa Li, William J. Riley, Li Xu, Lei Zhao, Kunxiaojia Yuan, Huayi Wu, Jianya Gong, and James Randerson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1899–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1899-2022, 2022
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Wildfire is a devastating Earth system process that burns about 500 million hectares of land each year. It wipes out vegetation including trees, shrubs, and grasses and causes large losses of economic assets. However, modeling the spatial distribution and temporal changes of wildfire activities at a global scale is challenging. This study built a machine-learning-based wildfire surrogate model within an existing Earth system model and achieved high accuracy.
Jinyun Tang, William J. Riley, and Qing Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1619–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1619-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1619-2022, 2022
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We here describe version 2 of BeTR, a reactive transport model created to help ease the development of biogeochemical capability in Earth system models that are used for quantifying ecosystem–climate feedbacks. We then coupled BeTR-v2 to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model to quantify how different numerical couplings of plants and soils affect simulated ecosystem biogeochemistry. We found that different couplings lead to significant uncertainty that is not correctable by tuning parameters.
Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, Josep G. Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Atul Jain, Matthew Jones, Masayuki Kondo, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Shilong Piao, Chunjing Qiu, Celso Von Randow, Pierre Regnier, Marielle Saunois, Robert Scholes, Anatoly Shvidenko, Hanqin Tian, Hui Yang, Xuhui Wang, and Bo Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1289–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, 2022
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The second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) will provide updated quantification and process understanding of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions and sinks for ten regions of the globe. In this paper, we give definitions, review different methods, and make recommendations for estimating different components of the total land–atmosphere carbon exchange for each region in a consistent and complete approach.
Valentina V. Malakhova and Alexey V. Eliseev
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-99, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-99, 2022
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The methane from the subsea methane hydrates (SMH) is of a concern for enhancing climate changes. We performed simulations with a model for subsea sediments thermophysics driven by CO2- the Earth orbit parameters-induced climate change. We found that the subsea permafrost (SPF) and SMH typically survive during next several kyr at least. The CO2-induced warming may to enhance the pan-Arctic SPF loss severalfold during next 1 kyr but is less instrumental for the respective SMH loss.
Alexey V. Eliseev, Rustam D. Gizatullin, and Alexandr V. Timazhev
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7725–7747, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7725-2021, 2021
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A stationary, computationally efficient scheme, ChAP 1.0 (Chemical and Aerosol Processes, version 1.0), is developed for the sulfur cycle in the troposphere. This scheme is designed for Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs). The scheme model reasonably reproduces characteristics of the tropospheric sulfur cycle. Despite its simplicity, ChAP may be successfully used to simulate anthropogenic sulfur pollution in the atmosphere at coarse spatial scales and timescales.
István Dunkl, Aaron Spring, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, 2021
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The variability in atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by terrestrial carbon fluxes. These land–atmosphere fluxes are predictable for around 2 years, but the mechanisms providing the predictability are not well understood. By decomposing the predictability of carbon fluxes into individual contributors we were able to explain the spatial and seasonal patterns and the interannual variability of CO2 flux predictability.
Jing Tao, Qing Zhu, William J. Riley, and Rebecca B. Neumann
The Cryosphere, 15, 5281–5307, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5281-2021, 2021
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We improved the DOE's E3SM land model (ELMv1-ECA) simulations of soil temperature, zero-curtain period durations, cold-season CH4, and CO2 emissions at several Alaskan Arctic tundra sites. We demonstrated that simulated CH4 emissions during zero-curtain periods accounted for more than 50 % of total emissions throughout the entire cold season (Sep to May). We also found that cold-season CO2 emissions largely offset warm-season net uptake currently and showed increasing trends from 1950 to 2017.
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, 2021
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Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
Jan C. Minx, William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Monica Crippa, Niklas Döbbeling, Piers M. Forster, Diego Guizzardi, Jos Olivier, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Rigby, Marielle Saunois, Steven J. Smith, Efisio Solazzo, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5213–5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, 2021
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We provide a synthetic dataset on anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. We show that GHG emissions continued to rise across all gases and sectors. Annual average GHG emissions growth slowed, but absolute decadal increases have never been higher in human history. We identify a number of data gaps and data quality issues in global inventories and highlight their importance for monitoring progress towards international climate goals.
Simon Besnard, Sujan Koirala, Maurizio Santoro, Ulrich Weber, Jacob Nelson, Jonas Gütter, Bruno Herault, Justin Kassi, Anny N'Guessan, Christopher Neigh, Benjamin Poulter, Tao Zhang, and Nuno Carvalhais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4881–4896, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4881-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4881-2021, 2021
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Forest age can determine the capacity of a forest to uptake carbon from the atmosphere. Yet, a lack of global diagnostics that reflect the forest stage and associated disturbance regimes hampers the quantification of age-related differences in forest carbon dynamics. In this paper, we introduced a new global distribution of forest age inferred from forest inventory, remote sensing and climate data in support of a better understanding of the global dynamics in the forest water and carbon cycles.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Anthony P. Walker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 5639–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, 2021
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The Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, yet the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations by an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models over Australia and highlighted a number of key areas that lead to model divergence on both short (inter-annual) and long (decadal) timescales.
Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, Kirsten Zickfeld, Andrew H. MacDougall, Joe R. Melton, Claire C. Treat, Michael Eby, and Lance F. W. Lesack
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6215–6240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6215-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6215-2021, 2021
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In this paper, we describe a new wetland methane model (WETMETH) developed for use in Earth system models. WETMETH consists of simple formulations to represent methane production and oxidation in wetlands. We also present an evaluation of the model performance as embedded in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). WETMETH is capable of reproducing mean annual methane emissions consistent with present-day estimates from the regional to the global scale.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
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Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Louise Chini, George Hurtt, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Stephen Sitch, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Lei Ma, Lesley Ott, Julia Pongratz, and Benjamin Poulter
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4175–4189, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4175-2021, 2021
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Carbon emissions from land-use change are a large and uncertain component of the global carbon cycle. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset was developed as an input to carbon and climate simulations and has been updated annually for the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2 updates and describe the 2019 version which used new cropland and grazing land data inputs for the globally important region of Brazil.
Kyle B. Delwiche, Sara Helen Knox, Avni Malhotra, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Gavin McNicol, Sarah Feron, Zutao Ouyang, Dario Papale, Carlo Trotta, Eleonora Canfora, You-Wei Cheah, Danielle Christianson, Ma. Carmelita R. Alberto, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Dennis Baldocchi, Sheel Bansal, David P. Billesbach, Gil Bohrer, Rosvel Bracho, Nina Buchmann, David I. Campbell, Gerardo Celis, Jiquan Chen, Weinan Chen, Housen Chu, Higo J. Dalmagro, Sigrid Dengel, Ankur R. Desai, Matteo Detto, Han Dolman, Elke Eichelmann, Eugenie Euskirchen, Daniela Famulari, Kathrin Fuchs, Mathias Goeckede, Sébastien Gogo, Mangaliso J. Gondwe, Jordan P. Goodrich, Pia Gottschalk, Scott L. Graham, Martin Heimann, Manuel Helbig, Carole Helfter, Kyle S. Hemes, Takashi Hirano, David Hollinger, Lukas Hörtnagl, Hiroki Iwata, Adrien Jacotot, Gerald Jurasinski, Minseok Kang, Kuno Kasak, John King, Janina Klatt, Franziska Koebsch, Ken W. Krauss, Derrick Y. F. Lai, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Luca Belelli Marchesini, Giovanni Manca, Jaclyn Hatala Matthes, Trofim Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Bhaskar Mitra, Timothy H. Morin, Eiko Nemitz, Mats B. Nilsson, Shuli Niu, Walter C. Oechel, Patricia Y. Oikawa, Keisuke Ono, Matthias Peichl, Olli Peltola, Michele L. Reba, Andrew D. Richardson, William Riley, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Youngryel Ryu, Torsten Sachs, Ayaka Sakabe, Camilo Rey Sanchez, Edward A. Schuur, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Oliver Sonnentag, Jed P. Sparks, Ellen Stuart-Haëntjens, Cove Sturtevant, Ryan C. Sullivan, Daphne J. Szutu, Jonathan E. Thom, Margaret S. Torn, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Jessica Turner, Masahito Ueyama, Alex C. Valach, Rodrigo Vargas, Andrej Varlagin, Alma Vazquez-Lule, Joseph G. Verfaillie, Timo Vesala, George L. Vourlitis, Eric J. Ward, Christian Wille, Georg Wohlfahrt, Guan Xhuan Wong, Zhen Zhang, Donatella Zona, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Benjamin Poulter, and Robert B. Jackson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3607–3689, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3607-2021, 2021
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas, yet we lack knowledge about its global emissions and drivers. We present FLUXNET-CH4, a new global collection of methane measurements and a critical resource for the research community. We use FLUXNET-CH4 data to quantify the seasonality of methane emissions from freshwater wetlands, finding that methane seasonality varies strongly with latitude. Our new database and analysis will improve wetland model accuracy and inform greenhouse gas budgets.
Jed O. Kaplan and Katie Hong-Kiu Lau
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3219–3237, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3219-2021, 2021
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Lightning is an important atmospheric phenomenon and natural hazard, but few long-term data are freely available on lightning stroke location, timing, and power. Here, we present a new, open-access dataset of lightning strokes covering 2010–2020, based on a network of low-frequency radio detectors. The dataset is comprised of GIS maps and is intended for researchers, government, industry, and anyone for whom knowing when and where lightning is likely to strike is useful information.
Brad Weir, Lesley E. Ott, George J. Collatz, Stephan R. Kawa, Benjamin Poulter, Abhishek Chatterjee, Tomohiro Oda, and Steven Pawson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9609–9628, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9609-2021, 2021
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We present a collection of carbon surface fluxes, the Low-order Flux Inversion (LoFI), derived from satellite observations of the Earth's surface and calibrated to match long-term inventories and atmospheric and oceanic records. Simulations using LoFI reproduce background atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements with comparable skill to the leading surface flux products. Available both retrospectively and as a forecast, LoFI enables the study of the carbon cycle as it occurs.
Patricio Velasquez, Jed O. Kaplan, Martina Messmer, Patrick Ludwig, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 17, 1161–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1161-2021, 2021
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This study assesses the importance of resolution and land–atmosphere feedbacks for European climate. We performed an asynchronously coupled experiment that combined a global climate model (~ 100 km), a regional climate model (18 km), and a dynamic vegetation model (18 km). Modelled climate and land cover agree reasonably well with independent reconstructions based on pollen and other paleoenvironmental proxies. The regional climate is significantly influenced by land cover.
Gesa Meyer, Elyn R. Humphreys, Joe R. Melton, Alex J. Cannon, and Peter M. Lafleur
Biogeosciences, 18, 3263–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3263-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3263-2021, 2021
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Shrub and sedge plant functional types (PFTs) were incorporated in the land surface component of the Canadian Earth System Model to improve representation of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Evaluated against 14 years of non-winter measurements, the magnitude and seasonality of carbon dioxide and energy fluxes at a Canadian dwarf-shrub tundra site were better captured by the shrub PFTs than by previously used grass and tree PFTs. Model simulations showed the tundra site to be an annual net CO2 source.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Philippe Peylin, Matthew J. McGrath, Efisio Solazzo, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Glen P. Peters, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Aki Tsuruta, Wilfried Winiwarter, Prabir K. Patra, Matthias Kuhnert, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Monica Crippa, Marielle Saunois, Lucia Perugini, Tiina Markkanen, Tuula Aalto, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Chris Wilson, Giulia Conchedda, Dirk Günther, Adrian Leip, Pete Smith, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Antti Leppänen, Alistair J. Manning, Joe McNorton, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with process-based model data and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling them with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
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We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Zhen Zhang, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Katherine Jensen, Kyle McDonald, Gustaf Hugelius, Thomas Gumbricht, Mark Carroll, Catherine Prigent, Annett Bartsch, and Benjamin Poulter
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2001–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2001-2021, 2021
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The spatiotemporal distribution of wetlands is one of the important and yet uncertain factors determining the time and locations of methane fluxes. The Wetland Area and Dynamics for Methane Modeling (WAD2M) dataset describes the global data product used to quantify the areal dynamics of natural wetlands and how global wetlands are changing in response to climate.
Leonardo Calle and Benjamin Poulter
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2575–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2575-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2575-2021, 2021
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We developed a model to simulate and track the age of ecosystems on Earth. We found that the effect of ecosystem age on net primary production and ecosystem respiration is as important as climate in large areas of every vegetated continent. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age-class model simulates dynamic age-class distributions on Earth and represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.
Zichong Chen, Junjie Liu, Daven K. Henze, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Kelley C. Wells, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Emilie Joetzjer, Vladislav Bastrikov, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Hanqin Tian, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Scot M. Miller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6663–6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, 2021
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NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite observes atmospheric CO2 globally. We use a multiple regression and inverse model to quantify the relationships between OCO-2 and environmental drivers within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. Our results point to limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to inform key relationships that are very uncertain in process-based models.
Christian Seiler, Joe R. Melton, Vivek K. Arora, and Libo Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2371–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2371-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2371-2021, 2021
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This study evaluates how well the CLASSIC land surface model reproduces the energy, water, and carbon cycle when compared against a wide range of global observations. Special attention is paid to how uncertainties in the data used to drive and evaluate the model affect model skill. Our results show the importance of incorporating uncertainties when evaluating land surface models and that failing to do so may potentially misguide future model development.
Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 15, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, 2021
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With large amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils and a highly energy-limited vegetation the Arctic is very sensitive to changes in climate. Here our simulations with the land surface model JSBACH reveal a number of offsetting factors moderating the Arctic's net response to global warming. More importantly we find that the effects of climate change may not be fully reversible on decadal timescales, leading to substantially different CH4 emissions depending on whether the Arctic warms or cools.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Zihao Bian, Hanqin Tian, Qichun Yang, Rongting Xu, Shufen Pan, and Bowen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 515–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-515-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-515-2021, 2021
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The estimation of manure nutrient production and application is critical for the efficient use of manure nutrients. This study developed four manure nitrogen and phosphorus datasets with high spatial resolution and a long time period (1860–2017) in the US. The datasets can provide useful information for stakeholders and scientists who focus on agriculture, nutrient budget, and biogeochemical cycle.
Sudhanshu Pandey, Sander Houweling, Alba Lorente, Tobias Borsdorff, Maria Tsivlidou, A. Anthony Bloom, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, and Ilse Aben
Biogeosciences, 18, 557–572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-557-2021, 2021
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We use atmospheric methane observations from the novel TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI; Sentinel-5p) to estimate methane emissions from South Sudan's wetlands. Our emission estimates are an order of magnitude larger than the estimate of process-based wetland models. We find that this underestimation by the models is likely due to their misrepresentation of the wetlands' inundation extent and temperature dependences.
Lyla L. Taylor, Charles T. Driscoll, Peter M. Groffman, Greg H. Rau, Joel D. Blum, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 18, 169–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-169-2021, 2021
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Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategy involving soil amendments with silicate rock dust. Over 15 years, a small silicate application led to net CDR of 8.5–11.5 t CO2/ha in an acid-rain-impacted New Hampshire forest. We accounted for the total carbon cost of treatment and compared effects with an adjacent, untreated forest. Our results suggest ERW can improve the greenhouse gas balance of similar forests in addition to mitigating acid rain effects.
Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, and Jed O. Kaplan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 57–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-57-2021, 2021
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Climate models predict a shift toward warmer, drier environments in southwestern North America. Under future climate, the two main drivers of dust trends play opposing roles: (1) CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation and, in turn, decreases dust, and (2) increasing land use enhances dust emissions from northern Mexico. In the worst-case scenario, elevated dust concentrations spread widely over the domain by 2100 in spring, suggesting a large climate penalty on air quality and human health.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
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The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez, Jennifer A. Holm, Boris Faybishenko, Daniel Magnabosco-Marra, Rosie A. Fisher, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Alessandro C. de Araujo, William J. Riley, and Jeffrey Q. Chambers
Biogeosciences, 17, 6185–6205, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020, 2020
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The temporal variability in the Landsat satellite near-infrared (NIR) band captured the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances in Central Amazon. This variability was represented by the dynamics of forest regrowth after disturbances were properly represented by the ELM-FATES model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM)).
Kuang-Yu Chang, William J. Riley, Patrick M. Crill, Robert F. Grant, and Scott R. Saleska
Biogeosciences, 17, 5849–5860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5849-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5849-2020, 2020
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Methane (CH4) is a strong greenhouse gas that can accelerate climate change and offset mitigation efforts. A key assumption embedded in many large-scale climate models is that ecosystem CH4 emissions can be estimated by fixed temperature relations. Here, we demonstrate that CH4 emissions cannot be parameterized by emergent temperature response alone due to variability driven by microbial and abiotic interactions. We also provide mechanistic understanding for observed CH4 emission hysteresis.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
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We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
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To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Rachel L. Tunnicliffe, Anita L. Ganesan, Robert J. Parker, Hartmut Boesch, Nicola Gedney, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Jošt V. Lavrič, David Walter, Matthew Rigby, Stephan Henne, Dickon Young, and Simon O'Doherty
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13041–13067, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13041-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13041-2020, 2020
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This study quantifies Brazil’s emissions of a potent atmospheric greenhouse gas, methane. This is in the field of atmospheric modelling and uses remotely sensed data and surface measurements of methane concentrations as well as an atmospheric transport model to interpret the data. Because of Brazil’s large emissions from wetlands, agriculture and biomass burning, these emissions affect global methane concentrations and thus are of global significance.
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Haifan Liu, Heng Dai, Jie Niu, Bill X. Hu, Dongwei Gui, Han Qiu, Ming Ye, Xingyuan Chen, Chuanhao Wu, Jin Zhang, and William Riley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4971–4996, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4971-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4971-2020, 2020
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It is still challenging to apply the quantitative and comprehensive global sensitivity analysis method to complex large-scale process-based hydrological models because of variant uncertainty sources and high computational cost. This work developed a new tool and demonstrate its implementation to a pilot example for comprehensive global sensitivity analysis of large-scale hydrological modelling. This method is mathematically rigorous and can be applied to other large-scale hydrological models.
Matthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Steve R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, and Lars Nieradzik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10937–10951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, 2020
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Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas which contributes to anthropogenic climate change; however, the effect of human emissions is uncertain because pre-industrial ozone concentrations are not well understood. We use revised inventories of pre-industrial natural emissions to estimate the human contribution to changes in tropospheric ozone. We find that tropospheric ozone radiative forcing is up to 34 % lower when using improved pre-industrial biomass burning and vegetation emissions.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Yang Li, Loretta J. Mickley, Pengfei Liu, and Jed O. Kaplan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8827–8838, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8827-2020, 2020
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Using a coupled vegetation–fire–climate modeling framework, we show a northward shift in forests and increased lightning fire activity in northern US states, including Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Our findings suggest a large climate penalty on ecosystem, air quality, visibility, and human health in a region valued for its national forests and parks. The fine-scale smoke PM predictions provided in this study should prove useful to human health and environmental assessments.
Pierre St-Laurent, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Raymond G. Najjar, Elizabeth H. Shadwick, Hanqin Tian, and Yuanzhi Yao
Biogeosciences, 17, 3779–3796, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3779-2020, 2020
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Over the past century, estuaries have experienced global (atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature) and regional changes (river inputs, land use), but their relative impact remains poorly known. In the Chesapeake Bay, we find that global and regional changes have worked together to enhance how much atmospheric CO2 is taken up by the estuary. The increased uptake is roughly equally due to the global and regional changes, providing crucial perspective for managers of the bay's watershed.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
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Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
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Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
Matteo Puglini, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Regnier, and Sandra Arndt
Biogeosciences, 17, 3247–3275, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3247-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3247-2020, 2020
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A reaction-transport model to assess the potential non-turbulent methane flux from the East Siberian Arctic sediments to water columns is applied here. We show that anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) is an efficient filter except for high values of sedimentation rate and advective flow, which enable considerable non-turbulent steady-state methane fluxes. Significant transient methane fluxes can also occur during the building-up phase of the AOM-performing biomass microbial community.
Joe R. Melton, Vivek K. Arora, Eduard Wisernig-Cojoc, Christian Seiler, Matthew Fortier, Ed Chan, and Lina Teckentrup
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2825–2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2825-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2825-2020, 2020
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We transitioned the CLASS-CTEM land surface model to an open-source community model format by modernizing the code base to make the model easier to use and understand, providing a complete software environment to run the model within, developing a benchmarking suite for model evaluation, and creating an infrastructure to support community involvement. The new model, the Canadian Land Surface Scheme including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC), is now available for the community to use and develop.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Christopher P. O. Reyer, Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez, Klara Dolos, Florian Hartig, Ylva Hauf, Matthias Noack, Petra Lasch-Born, Thomas Rötzer, Hans Pretzsch, Henning Meesenburg, Stefan Fleck, Markus Wagner, Andreas Bolte, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Pasi Kolari, Annikki Mäkelä, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Jukka Pumpanen, Alessio Collalti, Carlo Trotta, Giorgio Matteucci, Ettore D'Andrea, Lenka Foltýnová, Jan Krejza, Andreas Ibrom, Kim Pilegaard, Denis Loustau, Jean-Marc Bonnefond, Paul Berbigier, Delphine Picart, Sébastien Lafont, Michael Dietze, David Cameron, Massimo Vieno, Hanqin Tian, Alicia Palacios-Orueta, Victor Cicuendez, Laura Recuero, Klaus Wiese, Matthias Büchner, Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Hyungjun Kim, Joanna A. Horemans, Friedrich Bohn, Jörg Steinkamp, Alexander Chikalanov, Graham P. Weedon, Justin Sheffield, Flurin Babst, Iliusi Vega del Valle, Felicitas Suckow, Simon Martel, Mats Mahnken, Martin Gutsch, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1295–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1295-2020, 2020
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Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database provides a wide range of empirical data to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale to support systematic model intercomparisons and model development in Europe.
Shufen Pan, Naiqing Pan, Hanqin Tian, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Hao Shi, Vivek K. Arora, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Catherine Ottlé, Benjamin Poulter, Sönke Zaehle, and Steven W. Running
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1509, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1485-2020, 2020
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Evapotranspiration (ET) links global water, carbon and energy cycles. We used 4 remote sensing models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 land surface models to analyze the changes in global terrestrial ET. These three categories of approaches agreed well in terms of ET intensity. For 1982–2011, all models showed that Earth greening enhanced terrestrial ET. The small interannual variability of global terrestrial ET suggests it has a potential planetary boundary of around 600 mm yr-1.
Thomas Kleinen, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 16, 575–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, 2020
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We investigate the changes in natural methane emissions between the Last Glacial Maximum and preindustrial periods with a methane-enabled version of MPI-ESM. We consider all natural sources of methane except for emissions from wild animals and geological sources. Changes are dominated by changes in tropical wetland emissions, high-latitude wetlands play a secondary role, and all other natural sources are of minor importance. We explain the changes in ice core methane by methane emissions only.
Binghao Jia, Xin Luo, Ximing Cai, Atul Jain, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Zhenghui Xie, Ning Zeng, Jiafu Mao, Xiaoying Shi, Akihiko Ito, Yaxing Wei, Hanqin Tian, Benjamin Poulter, Dan Hayes, and Kevin Schaefer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 235–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-235-2020, 2020
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We quantitatively examined the relative contributions of climate change, land
use and land cover change, and elevated CO2 to interannual variations and seasonal cycle amplitude of gross primary productivity (GPP) in China based on multi-model ensemble simulations. The contributions of major subregions to the temporal change in China's total GPP are also presented. This work may help us better understand GPP spatiotemporal patterns and their responses to regional changes and human activities.
Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-José Gaillard, Benjamin D. Stocker, Marc Vander Linden, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Oliver Boles, Pascale Braconnot, Andria Dawson, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kastner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Erick Robinson, Nicki J. Whitehouse, Marco Madella, and Kathleen D. Morrison
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 805–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020, 2020
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The Past Global Changes LandCover6k initiative will use archaeological records to refine scenarios of land use and land cover change through the Holocene to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of human-induced changes before widespread industrialization. We describe how archaeological data are used to map land use change and how the maps can be evaluated using independent palaeoenvironmental data. We propose simulations to test land use and land cover change impacts on past climates.
Yufei Zou, Yuhang Wang, Yun Qian, Hanqin Tian, Jia Yang, and Ernesto Alvarado
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 995–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-995-2020, 2020
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Fire is a natural phenomenon that has a long history of interactions with the environment and human activity. The complex interactions were less represented in previous fire and climate models. Here we use a new global fire model with improved modeling capability to study how fire responds and contributes to climate change. The modeling results show increased global fire activity in the future driven by climate change, which in turn modulates local and remote climate and ecosystems.
Georgii A. Alexandrov, Victor A. Brovkin, Thomas Kleinen, and Zicheng Yu
Biogeosciences, 17, 47–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, 2020
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Sajeev Philip, Matthew S. Johnson, Christopher Potter, Vanessa Genovesse, David F. Baker, Katherine D. Haynes, Daven K. Henze, Junjie Liu, and Benjamin Poulter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13267–13287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13267-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13267-2019, 2019
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This research was conducted to quantify the impact of different prior global biosphere models on the estimate of terrestrial CO2 fluxes when assimilating Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite observations. To determine the prior model impact, we apply observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Even with the substantial spatiotemporal coverage of OCO-2 data, residual differences in posterior CO2 flux estimates remain due to the choice of prior flux mean and uncertainties.
Joe R. Melton, Diana L. Verseghy, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, and Stephan Gruber
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4443–4467, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4443-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4443-2019, 2019
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Soils in cold regions store large amounts of carbon that could be released to the atmosphere if the soils thaw. To best simulate these soils, we explored different configurations and parameterizations of the CLASS-CTEM model and compared to observations. The revised model with a deeper soil column, new soil depth dataset, and inclusion of moss simulated greatly improved annual thaw depths and ground temperatures. We estimate subgrid-scale features limit further improvements against observations.
Anina Gilgen, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Jed O. Kaplan, Thomas Kühn, and Ulrike Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1885–1911, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1885-2019, 2019
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Using the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM-SALSA, the effect of humans on European climate in the Roman Empire was quantified. Both land use and novel estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions were considered. We conducted simulations with fixed sea-surface temperatures to gain a first impression about the anthropogenic impact. While land use effects induced a regional warming for one of the reconstructions, aerosol emissions led to a cooling associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.
Hubertus Fischer, Jochen Schmitt, Michael Bock, Barbara Seth, Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Sebastian Lienert, Gianna Battaglia, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrian Schilt, and Edward J. Brook
Biogeosciences, 16, 3997–4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3997-2019, 2019
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N2O concentrations were subject to strong variations accompanying glacial–interglacial but also rapid climate changes over the last 21 kyr. The sources of these N2O changes can be identified by measuring the isotopic composition of N2O in ice cores and using the distinct isotopic composition of terrestrial and marine N2O. We show that both marine and terrestrial sources increased from the last glacial to the Holocene but that only terrestrial emissions responded quickly to rapid climate changes.
Fang Li, Maria Val Martin, Meinrat O. Andreae, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gitta Lasslop, Chao Yue, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Erik Kluzek, Xiaohong Liu, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Daniel S. Ward, Anton Darmenov, Thomas Hickler, Charles Ichoku, Brian I. Magi, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Christine Wiedinmyer, and Sam S. Rabin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12545–12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, 2019
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Fire emissions are critical for atmospheric composition, climate, carbon cycle, and air quality. We provide the first global multi-model fire emission reconstructions for 1700–2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols, based on the nine state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in FireMIP. We also provide information on the recent status and limitations of the model-based reconstructions and identify the main uncertainty sources in their long-term changes.
Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019
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This study compares simulated burned area of seven global vegetation models provided by the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) since 1900. We investigate the influence of five forcing factors: atmospheric CO2, population density, land–use change, lightning and climate.
We find that the anthropogenic factors lead to the largest spread between models. Trends due to climate are mostly not significant but climate strongly influences the inter-annual variability of burned area.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Fabienne Maignan, Yi Yin, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep Peñuelas, Shilong L. Piao, Stephen Sitch, William K. Smith, Xuhui Wang, Zaichun Zhu, Vanessa Haverd, Etsushi Kato, Atul K. Jain, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, and Dan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12361–12375, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, 2019
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Here we show that land-surface models improved their ability to simulate the increase in the amplitude of seasonal CO2-cycle exchange (SCANBP) by ecosystems compared to estimates by two atmospheric inversions. We find a dominant role of vegetation growth over boreal Eurasia to the observed increase in SCANBP, strongly driven by CO2 fertilization, and an overall negative effect of temperature on SCANBP. Biases can be explained by the sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 501–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, 2019
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The concept of
emergent constraintsis a key method to reduce uncertainty in multi-model climate projections using historical simulations and observations. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the applicability of the method and uncover possible limitations. Key limitations are a lack of comparability (temporal, spatial, and conceptual) between models and observations and the disagreement between models on system dynamics throughout different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Haifan Liu, Heng Dai, Jie Niu, Bill X. Hu, Han Qiu, Dongwei Gui, Ming Ye, Xingyuan Chen, Chuanhao Wu, Jin Zhang, and William Riley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-246, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-246, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Victor Brovkin, Stephan Lorenz, Thomas Raddatz, Tatiana Ilyina, Irene Stemmler, Matthew Toohey, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 16, 2543–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, 2019
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Mechanisms of atmospheric CO2 growth by 20 ppm from 6000 BCE to the pre-industrial period are still uncertain. We apply the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR for two transient simulations of the climate–carbon cycle. An additional process, e.g. carbonate accumulation on shelves, is required for consistency with ice-core CO2 data. Our simulations support the hypothesis that the ocean was a source of CO2 until the late Holocene when anthropogenic CO2 sources started to affect atmospheric CO2.
Fushan Wang, Guangheng Ni, William J. Riley, Jinyun Tang, Dejun Zhu, and Ting Sun
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2119–2138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2119-2019, 2019
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The current lake model in the Weather Research and Forecasting system was reported to be insufficient in simulating deep lakes and reservoirs. We thus revised the lake model by improving its spatial discretization scheme, surface property parameterization, diffusivity parameterization, and convection scheme. The revised model was evaluated at a deep reservoir in southwestern China and the results were in good agreement with measurements.
Leonardo Calle, Benjamin Poulter, and Prabir K. Patra
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2611–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2611-2019, 2019
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Satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide offer extraordinary insights into terrestrial ecosystem activity on Earth. The algorithm we present provides researchers with a great deal more information from these satellite data than has been available in the past. We hope the application of this algorithm and analyses tools provides insight into atmospheric dynamics of carbon dioxide and helps inform the development of global ecosystem models in the future.
David J. Wilton, Marcus P. S. Badger, Euripides P. Kantzas, Richard D. Pancost, Paul J. Valdes, and David J. Beerling
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1351–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1351-2019, 2019
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas naturally produced in wetlands (areas of land inundated with water). Models of the Earth's past climate need estimates of the amounts of methane wetlands produce; and in order to calculate those we need to model wetlands. In this work we develop a method for modelling the fraction of an area of the Earth that is wetland, repeat this over all the Earth's land surface and apply this to a study of the Earth as it was around 50 million years ago.
Kuang-Yu Chang, William J. Riley, Patrick M. Crill, Robert F. Grant, Virginia I. Rich, and Scott R. Saleska
The Cryosphere, 13, 647–663, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-647-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-647-2019, 2019
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Permafrost peatlands store large amounts of carbon potentially vulnerable to decomposition under changing climate. We estimated effects of climate forcing biases on carbon cycling at a thawing permafrost peatland in subarctic Sweden. Our results indicate that many climate reanalysis products are cold and wet biased in our study region, leading to erroneous active layer depth and carbon budget estimates. Future studies should recognize the effects of climate forcing uncertainty on carbon cycling.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 15, 335–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-335-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-335-2019, 2019
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A simple but powerful method for the biomisation of plant functional type distributions is introduced and tested for six different dynamic global vegetation models based on pre-industrial and palaeo-simulations. The method facilitates the direct comparison between vegetation distributions simulated by different Earth system models and between model results and the pollen-based biome reconstructions. It is therefore a powerful tool for the evaluation of Earth system models.
Rongting Xu, Hanqin Tian, Shufen Pan, Shree R. S. Dangal, Jian Chen, Jinfeng Chang, Yonglong Lu, Ute Maria Skiba, Francesco N. Tubiello, and Bowen Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 175–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-175-2019, 2019
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We provide three gridded datasets of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer and manure N inputs in global pastures and rangelands at a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° for the period 1860–2016 (i.e., annual manure N deposition (by grazing animals) rate, synthetic N fertilizer use rate and manure N application rate). These three datasets could fill data gaps of N inputs in global and regional grasslands and serve as input drivers for earth system models.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
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Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Kleinen, Gustaf Hugelius, Christian Knoblauch, Christian Beer, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 14, 2011–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, 2018
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Past cold ice age temperatures and the subsequent warming towards the Holocene had large consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in perennially frozen grounds. Using an Earth system model we show how the spread in areas affected by permafrost have changed under deglacial warming, along with changes in SOC accumulation. Our model simulations suggest phases of circum-Arctic permafrost SOC gain and losses, with a net increase in SOC between the last glacial maximum and the pre-industrial.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Ali Asaadi, Vivek K. Arora, Joe R. Melton, and Paul Bartlett
Biogeosciences, 15, 6885–6907, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6885-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6885-2018, 2018
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Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs), which play a central role in a plant's life processes and its response to environmental conditions, are typically not included in terrestrial biogeochemistry models used in Earth system models (ESMs). In this study, we include NSC pools in the framework of the land component of the Canadian ESM and show how they help address the long-standing problem of delayed leaf phenology.
HyeJin Kim, Isabel M. D. Rosa, Rob Alkemade, Paul Leadley, George Hurtt, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Emma Caton, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Adriana De Palma, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Moreno Di Marco, Felipe Espinoza, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Ricardo E. Gonzalez, Maya Gueguen, Carlos Guerra, Mike Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlík, Stefanie Hellweg, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas Krause, David Leclère, Ines S. Martins, Tetsuya Matsui, Cory Merow, Michael Obersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Richard Sharp, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, and Henrique M. Pereira
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4537–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, 2018
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This paper lays out the protocol for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario-based Intercomparison of Models (BES-SIM) that projects the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century. BES-SIM uses harmonized scenarios and input data and a set of common output metrics at multiple scales, and identifies model uncertainties and research gaps.
Thomas Riddick, Victor Brovkin, Stefan Hagemann, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, 2018
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During the Last Glacial Maximum, many rivers were blocked by the presence of large ice sheets and thus found new routes to the sea. This resulted in changes in the pattern of freshwater discharge into the oceans and thus would have significantly affected ocean circulation. Also, rivers found routes across the vast exposed continental shelves to the lower coastlines of that time. We propose a model for such changes in river routing suitable for use in wider models of the last glacial cycle.
Gautam Bisht, William J. Riley, Glenn E. Hammond, and David M. Lorenzetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4085–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4085-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4085-2018, 2018
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Most existing global land surface models used to study impacts of climate change on water resources routinely use different models for near-surface unsaturated soil and the deeper groundwater table. We developed a model that uses a unified treatment of soil hydrologic processes throughout the entire soil column. Using a calibrated drainage parameter, the new model is able to correctly predict deep water table depth as reported in an observationally constrained global dataset.
Eunjee Lee, Fan-Wei Zeng, Randal D. Koster, Brad Weir, Lesley E. Ott, and Benjamin Poulter
Biogeosciences, 15, 5635–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5635-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5635-2018, 2018
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Land carbon fluxes are controlled in part by the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric conditions near the Earth's surface. This study offers a comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of multiple facets of spatiotemporal variability in atmospheric CO2 for carbon cycle dynamics. Globally, consideration of the diurnal CO2 variability reduces the gross primary production and net land carbon uptake. The relative contributions of other variability vary regionally and seasonally.
Joseph J. Hamman, Bart Nijssen, Theodore J. Bohn, Diana R. Gergel, and Yixin Mao
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3481–3496, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3481-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3481-2018, 2018
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Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) is a widely used hydrologic model. This paper documents the development of VIC version 5, which includes a reconfiguration of the model source code to support a wider range of modeling applications. It also represents a significant step forward for the VIC user community in terms of support for a range of modeling applications, reproducibility, and scientific robustness.
Vivek K. Arora, Joe R. Melton, and David Plummer
Biogeosciences, 15, 4683–4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4683-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4683-2018, 2018
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Earth system models (ESMs) project future changes in climate in response to changes in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, before this can be achieved the natural fluxes of a given GHG must also be modelled. This paper evaluates the natural methane fluxes simulated by the CLASS-CTEM model (which is the land component of the Canadian ESM) against observations to show that the simulated methane emissions from wetlands and fires, and soil uptake of methane are realistic.
Emilie Joetzjer, Fabienne Maignan, Jérôme Chave, Daniel Goll, Ben Poulter, Jonathan Barichivich, Isabelle Maréchaux, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Matthieu Guimberteau, Kim Naudts, Damien Bonal, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-308, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This study explores the relative contributions of tree demographic, canopy structure and hydraulic processes on the Amazonian carbon and water cycles using large-scale process-based model. Our results imply that explicit coupling of the water and carbon cycles improves the representation of biogeochemical cycles and their spatial variability. Representing the variation in the ecological functioning of Amazonia should be the next step to improve the performance and predictive ability of models.
Xiyan Xu, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Gensuo Jia
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-257, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
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Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 663–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, 2018
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Temperature affects fire occurrence and severity. Warming will increase fire-related carbon emissions and thus atmospheric CO2. The size of this feedback is not known. We use charcoal records to estimate pre-industrial fire emissions and a simple land–biosphere model to quantify the feedback. We infer a feedback strength of 5.6 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of warming and a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05 for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K. Thus, fire feedback is a large part of the climate–carbon-cycle feedback.
Karel Castro-Morales, Thomas Kleinen, Sonja Kaiser, Sönke Zaehle, Fanny Kittler, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Beer, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 15, 2691–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, 2018
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We present year-round methane emissions from wetlands in Northeast Siberia that were simulated with a land surface model. Ground-based flux measurements from the same area were used for evaluation of the model results, finding a best agreement with the observations in the summertime emissions that take place in this region predominantly through plants. During winter, methane emissions through the snow contribute 4 % of the total annual methane budget, but these are still underestimated.
Hans W. Linderholm, Marie Nicolle, Pierre Francus, Konrad Gajewski, Samuli Helama, Atte Korhola, Olga Solomina, Zicheng Yu, Peng Zhang, William J. D'Andrea, Maxime Debret, Dmitry V. Divine, Björn E. Gunnarson, Neil J. Loader, Nicolas Massei, Kristina Seftigen, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Johannes Werner, Sofia Andersson, Annika Berntsson, Tomi P. Luoto, Liisa Nevalainen, Saija Saarni, and Minna Väliranta
Clim. Past, 14, 473–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-473-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-473-2018, 2018
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This paper reviews the current knowledge of Arctic hydroclimate variability during the past 2000 years. We discuss the current state, look into the future, and describe various archives and proxies used to infer past hydroclimate variability. We also provide regional overviews and discuss the potential of furthering our understanding of Arctic hydroclimate in the past. This paper summarises the hydroclimate-related activities of the Arctic 2k group.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Emeline Chaste, Martin P. Girardin, Jed O. Kaplan, Jeanne Portier, Yves Bergeron, and Christelle Hély
Biogeosciences, 15, 1273–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1273-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1273-2018, 2018
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A vegetation model was used to reconstruct fire activity from 1901 to 2012 in relation to changes in lightning ignition, climate, and vegetation in eastern Canada's boreal forest. The model correctly simulated the history of fire activity. The results showed that fire activity is ignition limited but is also greatly affected by both climate and vegetation. This research aims to develop a vegetation model that could be used to predict the future impacts of climate changes on fire activity.
Sonja Totz, Alexey V. Eliseev, Stefan Petri, Michael Flechsig, Levke Caesar, Vladimir Petoukhov, and Dim Coumou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 665–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-665-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-665-2018, 2018
Bakr Badawy, Saroja Polavarapu, Dylan B. A. Jones, Feng Deng, Michael Neish, Joe R. Melton, Ray Nassar, and Vivek K. Arora
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 631–663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-631-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-631-2018, 2018
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We assess the impact of using the meteorological fields from GEM-MACH-GHG to drive CLASS-CTEM. This coupling is considered an important step toward understanding how meteorological uncertainties affect both CO2 flux estimates and modeled atmospheric transport. Ultimately, such an approach will provide more direct feedback to the CLASS-CTEM developers and thus help to improve the performance of CLASS-CTEM by identifying the model limitations based on atmospheric constraints.
Katrina E. Bennett, Theodore J. Bohn, Kurt Solander, Nathan G. McDowell, Chonggang Xu, Enrique Vivoni, and Richard S. Middleton
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 709–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-709-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-709-2018, 2018
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We applied the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model to examine scenarios of change under climate and landscape disturbances in the San Juan River basin, a major sub-watershed of the Colorado River basin. Climate change coupled with landscape disturbance leads to reduced streamflow in the San Juan River basin. Disturbances are expected to be widespread in this region. Therefore, accounting for these changes within the context of climate change is imperative for water resource planning.
Gautam Bisht, William J. Riley, Haruko M. Wainwright, Baptiste Dafflon, Fengming Yuan, and Vladimir E. Romanovsky
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 61–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-61-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-61-2018, 2018
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The land model integrated into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model was extended to include snow redistribution (SR) and lateral subsurface hydrologic and thermal processes. Simulation results at a polygonal tundra site near Barrow, Alaska, showed that inclusion of SR resulted in a better agreement with observations. Excluding lateral subsurface processes had a small impact on mean states but caused a large overestimation of spatial variability in soil moisture and temperature.
Maarit Raivonen, Sampo Smolander, Leif Backman, Jouni Susiluoto, Tuula Aalto, Tiina Markkanen, Jarmo Mäkelä, Janne Rinne, Olli Peltola, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, Marin Tomasic, Xuefei Li, Tuula Larmola, Sari Juutinen, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Martin Heimann, Sanna Sevanto, Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Timo Vesala
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4665–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, 2017
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Wetlands are one of the most significant natural sources of the strong greenhouse gas methane. We developed a model that can be used within a larger wetland carbon model to simulate the methane emissions. In this study, we present the model and results of its testing. We found that the model works well with different settings and that the results depend primarily on the rate of input anoxic soil respiration and also on factors that affect the simulated oxygen concentrations in the wetland soil.
Gautam Bisht, Maoyi Huang, Tian Zhou, Xingyuan Chen, Heng Dai, Glenn E. Hammond, William J. Riley, Janelle L. Downs, Ying Liu, and John M. Zachara
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4539–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4539-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4539-2017, 2017
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A fully coupled three-dimensional surface and subsurface land model, CP v1.0, was developed to simulate three-way interactions among river water, groundwater, and land surface processes. The coupled model can be used for improving mechanistic understanding of ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycling along river corridors under historical and future hydroclimatic changes. The dataset presented in this study can also serve as a good benchmarking case for testing other integrated models.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017
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This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
Andrey Ganopolski and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 13, 1695–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, 2017
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Ice cores reveal that atmospheric CO2 concentration varied synchronously with the global ice volume. Explaining the mechanism of glacial–interglacial variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the link between CO2 and ice sheets evolution still remains a challenge. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity we performed for the first time simulations of co-evolution of climate, ice sheets and carbon cycle using the astronomical forcing as the only external forcing.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
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We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Rudra K. Shrestha, Vivek K. Arora, Joe R. Melton, and Laxmi Sushama
Biogeosciences, 14, 4733–4753, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4733-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4733-2017, 2017
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Computer models of vegetation provide a tool to assess how future changes in climate may the affect geographical distribution of vegetation. However, such models must first be assessed for their ability to reproduce the present-day geographical distribution of vegetation. Here, we assess the ability of one such dynamic vegetation model. We find that while the model is broadly successful in reproducing the geographical distribution of trees and grasses in North America some limitations remain.
Philipp S. Sommer and Jed O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3771–3791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3771-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3771-2017, 2017
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We present GWGEN, a computer program for converting monthly climate data into estimates of daily weather, using statistical methods. The GWGEN weather generator program was developed using a global database of more than 5 million observations of daily weather, and it simulates daily values of minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
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To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Bowen Zhang, Hanqin Tian, Chaoqun Lu, Shree R. S. Dangal, Jia Yang, and Shufen Pan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 667–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-667-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-667-2017, 2017
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This work addressed how manure nitrogen (N) production and application to cropland have changed over time and space. The 5 arcmin gridded global dataset of manure nitrogen production generated from this study could be used as an input for global or regional land surface and ecosystem models to evaluate the impacts of manure nitrogen on key biogeochemical processes and water quality.
Jin-Yun Tang and William J. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3277–3295, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3277-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3277-2017, 2017
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We proposed the SUPECA kinetics to scale from single biogeochemical reactions to a network of mixed substrates and consumers. The framework for the first time represents single-substrate reactions, two-substrate reactions, and mineral surface sorption reactions in a scaling consistent manner. This new theory is theoretically solid and outperforms existing theories, particularly for substrate-limiting systems. The test with aerobic soil respiration showed its strengths for pragmatic application.
Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Valerio Avitabile, Leonardo Calle, Nuno Carvalhais, Philippe Ciais, Fabian Gans, Nicolas Gruber, Jens Hartmann, Martin Herold, Kazuhito Ichii, Martin Jung, Peter Landschützer, Goulven G. Laruelle, Ronny Lauerwald, Dario Papale, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, Deepak Ray, Pierre Regnier, Christian Rödenbeck, Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta, Christopher Schwalm, Gianluca Tramontana, Alexandra Tyukavina, Riccardo Valentini, Guido van der Werf, Tristram O. West, Julie E. Wolf, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 14, 3685–3703, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, 2017
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Here we synthesize a wide range of global spatiotemporal observational data on carbon exchanges between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. A key challenge was to consistently combining observational products of terrestrial and aquatic surfaces. Our primary goal is to identify today’s key uncertainties and observational shortcomings that would need to be addressed in future measurement campaigns or expansions of in situ observatories.
Guangsheng Chen, Shufen Pan, Daniel J. Hayes, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 545–556, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-545-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-545-2017, 2017
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Through synthesizing multiple inventory data sources, this study developed methods to spatialize the time series plantation forest and tree species distribution data for the conterminous US during 1928–2012. These time series and gridded data set can be readily applied in regional Earth system modeling frameworks for assessing the impacts of plantation management practices on forest productivity, carbon and nitrogen stocks, and greenhouse gas and water fluxes on regional or national scales.
Rongting Xu, Hanqin Tian, Chaoqun Lu, Shufen Pan, Jian Chen, Jia Yang, and Bowen Zhang
Clim. Past, 13, 977–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-977-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-977-2017, 2017
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As N2O emissions were present in preindustrial times, only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net human-induced climate change. Large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere. Our estimate using process-based model was the first study that provided the preindustrial N2O emission at the biome, sector or country, and global level, which could be a useful reference for future climate mitigation.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017
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Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility.
Joe R. Melton, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, and Kelly E. McCusker
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2761–2783, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2761-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2761-2017, 2017
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Climate models have large grid cells due to the computational cost of running these complex models. Within grid cells like these, the land surface can vary dramatically impacting the exchange of water, carbon, and energy between the atmosphere and land. We use a technique to determine natural clusters of high-resolution soil texture within large grid cells and use them as inputs to our model. We find relatively low sensitivity to soil texture changes except in very dry regions and peatlands.
Yuanqiao Wu, Ed Chan, Joe R. Melton, and Diana L. Verseghy
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-152, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-152, 2017
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Peatlands are an important component of the carbon cycle that is expected to change under climate change, but accurate information on the global distribution of peatlands is presently unavailable. We use a machine-learning method to create a map of global peatland extent suitable for use in an Earth system model. For areas where data exists we find excellent agreement with observations and our method has greater skill than solely using soil datasets to estimate peatland coverage.
Sina Muster, Kurt Roth, Moritz Langer, Stephan Lange, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Annett Bartsch, Anne Morgenstern, Guido Grosse, Benjamin Jones, A. Britta K. Sannel, Ylva Sjöberg, Frank Günther, Christian Andresen, Alexandra Veremeeva, Prajna R. Lindgren, Frédéric Bouchard, Mark J. Lara, Daniel Fortier, Simon Charbonneau, Tarmo A. Virtanen, Gustaf Hugelius, Juri Palmtag, Matthias B. Siewert, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, and Julia Boike
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 317–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-317-2017, 2017
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Waterbodies are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. Most waterbodies are ponds with a surface area smaller than 100 x 100 m. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake Database (PeRL) for the first time maps ponds as small as 10 x 10 m. PeRL maps can be used to document changes both by comparing them to historical and future imagery. The distribution of waterbodies in the Arctic is important to know in order to manage resources in the Arctic and to improve climate predictions in the Arctic.
Kathrin M. Keller, Sebastian Lienert, Anil Bozbiyik, Thomas F. Stocker, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), David C. Frank, Stefan Klesse, Charles D. Koven, Markus Leuenberger, William J. Riley, Matthias Saurer, Rolf Siegwolf, Rosemarie B. Weigt, and Fortunat Joos
Biogeosciences, 14, 2641–2673, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2641-2017, 2017
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, 2017
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The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
Aki Tsuruta, Tuula Aalto, Leif Backman, Janne Hakkarainen, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Maarten C. Krol, Renato Spahni, Sander Houweling, Marko Laine, Ed Dlugokencky, Angel J. Gomez-Pelaez, Marcel van der Schoot, Ray Langenfelds, Raymond Ellul, Jgor Arduini, Francesco Apadula, Christoph Gerbig, Dietrich G. Feist, Rigel Kivi, Yukio Yoshida, and Wouter Peters
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1261–1289, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1261-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1261-2017, 2017
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In this study, we found that the average global methane emission for 2000–2012, estimated by the CTE-CH4 model, was 516±51 Tg CH4 yr-1, and the estimates for 2007–2012 were 4 % larger than for 2000–2006. The model estimates are sensitive to inputs and setups, but according to sensitivity tests the study suggests that the increase in atmospheric methane concentrations during 21st century was due to an increase in emissions from the 35S-EQ latitudinal bands.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
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Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Chaoqun Lu and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 181–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-181-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-181-2017, 2017
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This work has addressed how agricultural nitrogen and phosphorous fertilizer use has changed over time and space. The final product covers global agricultural land, spanning from 1961 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° latitude by longitude. It can serve as an important input driver for regional and global assessment and Earth system modeling of agricultural productivity, crop yield, greenhouse gas balance, global nutrient budget, and ecosystem feedback to climate.
Beniamino Abis and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 14, 511–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-511-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-511-2017, 2017
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We study the link between the boreal tree-cover fraction distribution and eight globally observed environmental factors. We find that they exert a strong control over the tree-cover distribution, generally uniquely determining its state. Furthermore, we show the location of areas with potentially alternative tree-cover states under the same environmental conditions. These areas represent transition zones with reduced resilience, where the forest can shift between different vegetation states.
Sonja Kaiser, Mathias Göckede, Karel Castro-Morales, Christian Knoblauch, Altug Ekici, Thomas Kleinen, Sebastian Zubrzycki, Torsten Sachs, Christian Wille, and Christian Beer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 333–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, 2017
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A new consistent, process-based methane module that is integrated with permafrost processes is presented. It was developed within a global land surface scheme and evaluated at a polygonal tundra site in Samoylov, Russia. The calculated methane emissions show fair agreement with field data and capture detailed differences between the explicitly modelled gas transport processes and in the gas dynamics under varying soil water and temperature conditions during seasons and on different microsites.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Clim. Past, 12, 2145–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, 2016
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We investigate trends in atmospheric CO2 during three recent interglacials – the Holocene, the Eemian and MIS 11 – using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Our model experiments show a considerable improvement in the modelled CO2 trends for all three interglacials if peat accumulation and shallow water CaCO3 sedimentation are included, forcing the model only with orbital and sea level changes. The Holocene CO2 trend requires anthropogenic emissions of CO2 only after 3 ka BP.
Sirui Wang, Qianlai Zhuang, and Zicheng Yu
Biogeosciences, 13, 6305–6319, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6305-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6305-2016, 2016
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We used a model to quantify the carbon stock and its changes in terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska during the last 15 000 years. We found that the changes in vegetation distribution due to climate were the key factors in the spatial variations of carbon in different time periods. The warming during 11–9 k years ago characterized by the increased summer temperature and seasonality of radiation, along with the high precipitation, might play an important role in causing the high carbon accumulation.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
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The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Sylvia S. Nyawira, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Axel Don, Victor Brovkin, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 13, 5661–5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, 2016
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We introduce an approach applicable to dynamic global vegetation models for evaluating simulated soil carbon changes from land-use changes against meta-analyses. The approach makes use of the large spatial coverage of the observations, and accounts for different ages of the sampled land-use transitions. The evaluation offers an opportunity for identifying causes of model–data discrepancies. Applied to the model JSBACH, we find that introducing crop harvest substantially improves the results.
Fang Zhao, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Pierre Friedlingstein, Akihiko Ito, Atul Jain, Eugenia Kalnay, Etsushi Kato, Charles D. Koven, Ben Poulter, Rashid Rafique, Stephen Sitch, Shijie Shu, Beni Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, and Sonke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 13, 5121–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5121-2016, 2016
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The increasing seasonality of atmospheric CO2 is strongly linked with enhanced land vegetation activities in the last 5 decades, for which the importance of increasing CO2, climate and land use/cover change was evaluated in single model studies (Zeng et al., 2014; Forkel et al., 2016). Here we examine the relative importance of these factors in multiple models. Our results highlight models can show similar results in some benchmarks with different underlying regional dynamics.
Xiyan Xu, William J. Riley, Charles D. Koven, Dave P. Billesbach, Rachel Y.-W. Chang, Róisín Commane, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Sean Hartery, Yoshinobu Harazono, Hiroki Iwata, Kyle C. McDonald, Charles E. Miller, Walter C. Oechel, Benjamin Poulter, Naama Raz-Yaseef, Colm Sweeney, Margaret Torn, Steven C. Wofsy, Zhen Zhang, and Donatella Zona
Biogeosciences, 13, 5043–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5043-2016, 2016
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Wetlands are the largest global natural methane source. Peat-rich bogs and fens lying between 50°N and 70°N contribute 10–30% to this source. The predictive capability of the seasonal methane cycle can directly affect the estimation of global methane budget. We present multiscale methane seasonal emission by observations and modeling and find that the uncertainties in predicting the seasonal methane emissions are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH4 production and CH4 transport processes.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
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The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
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Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
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How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Aki Tsuruta, Tuula Aalto, Leif Backman, Janne Hakkarainen, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Maarten C. Krol, Renato Spahni, Sander Houweling, Marko Laine, Marcel van der Schoot, Ray Langenfelds, Raymond Ellul, and Wouter Peters
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-181, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-181, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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In this study, we found that methane emission estimates, driven by the CTE-CH4 model, depend on model setups and inputs, especially for regional estimates. An optimal setup makes the estimates stable, but inputs, such as emission estimates from inventories, and observations, also play significant role. The results can be used for an extended analysis on relative contributions of methane emissions to atmospheric methane concentration changes in recent decades.
Yuanqiao Wu, Diana L. Verseghy, and Joe R. Melton
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2639–2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2639-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2639-2016, 2016
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About 20 % of the carbon stored in global soils occurs in peatlands. Warmer and drier conditions will both tend to stimulate the decomposition of peat and increase CO2 and methane emissions, thus potentially enhancing the warming trend. It is important that this feedback mechanism be captured in climate models. This work integrated peatlands into the Canadian Earth system model (CanESM) for global climate predictions and represent a valuable enhancement to the family of Earth system models.
Zuo Xue, Ruoying He, Katja Fennel, Wei-Jun Cai, Steven Lohrenz, Wei-Jen Huang, Hanqin Tian, Wei Ren, and Zhengchen Zang
Biogeosciences, 13, 4359–4377, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4359-2016, 2016
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In this study we used a state-of-the-science coupled physical–biogeochemical model to simulate and examine temporal and spatial variability of sea surface CO2 concentration in the Gulf of Mexico. Our model revealed the Gulf was a net CO2 sink with a flux of 1.11 ± 0.84 × 1012 mol C yr−1. We also found that biological uptake was the primary driver making the Gulf an overall CO2 sink and that the carbon flux in the northern Gulf was very susceptible to changes in river inputs.
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Mariana C. Rufino, Martin Herold, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Todd S. Rosenstock, Mario Herrero, Stephen Ogle, Changsheng Li, Benjamin Poulter, Louis Verchot, Christopher Martius, John Stuiver, and Sytze de Bruin
Biogeosciences, 13, 4253–4269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4253-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4253-2016, 2016
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This research provides spatial data on gross emissions from the land use sector for the tropical region for the period 2000–2005. This sector contributes up to 24 % of the global emissions, but there is little understanding of where the hotspots of emissions are, how uncertain they are, and what the human activities behind these emissions are. Data provided here should assist countries to identify priority areas for mitigation action and contrast the effectiveness of their current measures.
Anna B. Harper, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris D. Jones, Stephen Sitch, Lina M. Mercado, Margriet Groenendijk, Eddy Robertson, Jens Kattge, Gerhard Bönisch, Owen K. Atkin, Michael Bahn, Johannes Cornelissen, Ülo Niinemets, Vladimir Onipchenko, Josep Peñuelas, Lourens Poorter, Peter B. Reich, Nadjeda A. Soudzilovskaia, and Peter van Bodegom
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2415–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, 2016
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Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to predict the response of vegetation to climate change. We improved the representation of carbon uptake by ecosystems in a DGVM by including a wider range of trade-offs between nutrient allocation to photosynthetic capacity and leaf structure, based on observed plant traits from a worldwide data base. The improved model has higher rates of photosynthesis and net C uptake by plants, and more closely matches observations at site and global scales.
Sonja G. Keel, Fortunat Joos, Renato Spahni, Matthias Saurer, Rosemarie B. Weigt, and Stefan Klesse
Biogeosciences, 13, 3869–3886, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3869-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3869-2016, 2016
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Records of stable oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings are valuable tools for reconstructing past climatic conditions. So far, they have not been used in global dynamic vegetation models. Here we present a model that simulates oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings. Our results compare well with measurements performed in European forests. The model is useful for studying oxygen isotope patterns of tree ring cellulose at large spatial and temporal scales.
Ulrike Port, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 535–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, 2016
Xiaofeng Xu, Fengming Yuan, Paul J. Hanson, Stan D. Wullschleger, Peter E. Thornton, William J. Riley, Xia Song, David E. Graham, Changchun Song, and Hanqin Tian
Biogeosciences, 13, 3735–3755, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3735-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3735-2016, 2016
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Accurately projecting future climate change requires a good methane modeling. However, how good the current models are and what are the key improvements needed remain unclear. This paper reviews the 40 published methane models to characterize the strengths and weakness of current methane models and further lay out the roadmap for future model improvements.
Valentina V. Malakhova and Alexey V. Eliseev
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-66, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-66, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
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Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Jinyun Tang and William J. Riley
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-233, 2016
Preprint retracted
M. Clare Smith, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Jed O. Kaplan, and Nicholas P. Branch
Clim. Past, 12, 923–941, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-923-2016, 2016
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We used climate modelling to estimate the biogeophysical impacts of agriculture on the climate over the last 8000 years of the Holocene. Our results show statistically significant surface temperature changes (mainly cooling) from as early as 7000 BP in the JJA season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3000 BP. The changes were greatest in the areas of land use change but were also seen in other areas. Precipitation was also affected, particularly in Europe, India, and the ITCZ region.
Zhen Zhang, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Jed O. Kaplan, and Benjamin Poulter
Biogeosciences, 13, 1387–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1387-2016, 2016
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This study investigates improvements and uncertainties associated with estimating global inundated area and wetland CH4 emissions using TOPMODEL. Different topographic information and catchment aggregation schemes are evaluated against seasonal and permanently inundated wetland observations. Reducing uncertainty in prognostic wetland dynamics modeling must take into account forcing data as well as topographic scaling schemes.
Scot M. Miller, Roisin Commane, Joe R. Melton, Arlyn E. Andrews, Joshua Benmergui, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Anna M. Michalak, Colm Sweeney, and Doug E. J. Worthy
Biogeosciences, 13, 1329–1339, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1329-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1329-2016, 2016
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We use atmospheric data from the US and Canada to examine seven wetland methane flux estimates. Relative to existing estimates, we find a methane source that is smaller in magnitude with a broader seasonal cycle. Furthermore, we estimate the largest fluxes over the Hudson Bay Lowlands, a spatial distribution that differs from commonly used remote sensing estimates of wetland location.
Fabio Cresto Aleina, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Tim Brücher, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 915–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, 2016
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This study presents the hotspot parameterization, a novel approach to upscaling methane emissions in a boreal peatland from the micro-topographic scale to the landscape scale. We based this new parameterization on the analysis of water table patterns generated by the Hummock–Hollow (HH) model. We show how the hotspot parameterization successfully upscales the micro-topographic controls on methane emissions for both present-day conditions and for the next century under three different scenarios.
J. Y. Tang and W. J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 13, 723–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-723-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-723-2016, 2016
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We present a generic flux-limiting approach to simultaneously handle the availability limitation from many substrates, a problem common in all biogeochemical models. Our approach does not have the ordering problem like a few existing ad hoc approaches, and is straightforward to implement. Our results imply that significant uncertainties could have occurred in many biogeochemical models because of the improper handling of the substrate co-limitation problem.
J. R. Melton and V. K. Arora
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-323-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-323-2016, 2016
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We use a modified form of the Lotka–Volterra (L–V) equations to simulate competition between plant functional types (PFTs) on a global scale with the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) version 2.0. Our modified L–V simulations compare well against observation-based records of PFT distributions, while simulations with unmodified L–V equations show significant biases. We include an appendix detailing all aspects of CTEM v. 2.0.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
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Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
Q. Zhu, W. J. Riley, J. Tang, and C. D. Koven
Biogeosciences, 13, 341–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-341-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-341-2016, 2016
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Here we develop, calibrate, and test a nutrient competition model that accounts for multiple soil nutrients interacting with multiple biotic and abiotic consumers based on enzyme kinetics theory. Our model provides an ecologically consistent representation of nutrient competition appropriate for land biogeochemical models integrated in Earth system models.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
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We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
X. Chen, T. J. Bohn, and D. P. Lettenmaier
Biogeosciences, 12, 6259–6277, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6259-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6259-2015, 2015
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We used a process-based model to investigate the sensitivities of pan-Arctic wetland methane emissions to climate factors, as a function of climate. Over the period 1960-2006, temperature was the dominant driver of trends in emissions. Wetlands north of 60N were temperature-limited, and wetlands south of 60N latitude were water-limited. Projected future warming will cause water-limited wetlands to expand northward over the next century, lessening the role of temperature in the future.
F. Cresto Aleina, B. R. K. Runkle, T. Kleinen, L. Kutzbach, J. Schneider, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 5689–5704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, 2015
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We developed a process-based model for peatland micro-topography and hydrology, the Hummock-Hollow (HH) model, which explicitly represents small-scale surface elevation changes. By coupling the HH model with a model for soil methane processes, we are able to model the effects of micro-topography on hydrology and methane emissions in a typical boreal peatland. We also identify potential biases that models without a micro-topographic representation can introduce in large-scale models.
A. Berchet, I. Pison, F. Chevallier, J.-D. Paris, P. Bousquet, J.-L. Bonne, M. Y. Arshinov, B. D. Belan, C. Cressot, D. K. Davydov, E. J. Dlugokencky, A. V. Fofonov, A. Galanin, J. Lavrič, T. Machida, R. Parker, M. Sasakawa, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, and J. Winderlich
Biogeosciences, 12, 5393–5414, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5393-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5393-2015, 2015
C. D. Koven, J. Q. Chambers, K. Georgiou, R. Knox, R. Negron-Juarez, W. J. Riley, V. K. Arora, V. Brovkin, P. Friedlingstein, and C. D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 12, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, 2015
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Terrestrial carbon feedbacks are a large uncertainty in climate change. We separate modeled feedback responses into those governed by changed carbon inputs (productivity) and changed outputs (turnover). The disaggregated responses show that both are important in controlling inter-model uncertainty. Interactions between productivity and turnover are also important, and research must focus on these interactions for more accurate projections of carbon cycle feedbacks.
T. Launois, P. Peylin, S. Belviso, and B. Poulter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9285–9312, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9285-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9285-2015, 2015
J.-L. Tison, M. de Angelis, G. Littot, E. Wolff, H. Fischer, M. Hansson, M. Bigler, R. Udisti, A. Wegner, J. Jouzel, B. Stenni, S. Johnsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Landais, V. Lipenkov, L. Loulergue, J.-M. Barnola, J.-R. Petit, B. Delmonte, G. Dreyfus, D. Dahl-Jensen, G. Durand, B. Bereiter, A. Schilt, R. Spahni, K. Pol, R. Lorrain, R. Souchez, and D. Samyn
The Cryosphere, 9, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1633-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1633-2015, 2015
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The oldest paleoclimatic information is buried within the lowermost layers of deep ice cores. It is therefore essential to judge how deep these records remain unaltered. We study the bottom 60 meters of the EPICA Dome C ice core from central Antarctica to show that the paleoclimatic signal is only affected at the small scale (decimeters) in terms of some of the global ice properties. However our data suggest that the time scale has been considerably distorted by mechanical stretching.
B. Poulter, N. MacBean, A. Hartley, I. Khlystova, O. Arino, R. Betts, S. Bontemps, M. Boettcher, C. Brockmann, P. Defourny, S. Hagemann, M. Herold, G. Kirches, C. Lamarche, D. Lederer, C. Ottlé, M. Peters, and P. Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2315–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, 2015
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Land cover is an essential variable in earth system models and determines conditions driving biogeochemical, energy and water exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere. A methodology is presented for mapping plant functional types used in global vegetation models from a updated land cover classification system and open-source conversion tool, resulting from a consultative process among map producers and modelers engaged in the European Space Agency’s Land Cover Climate Change Initiative.
L. Molina, G. Broquet, P. Imbach, F. Chevallier, B. Poulter, D. Bonal, B. Burban, M. Ramonet, L. V. Gatti, S. C. Wofsy, J. W. Munger, E. Dlugokencky, and P. Ciais
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8423–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8423-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8423-2015, 2015
D. Zhu, S. S. Peng, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, A. Druel, M. Kageyama, G. Krinner, P. Peylin, C. Ottlé, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, D. Schepaschenko, and A. Shvidenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2263–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2263-2015, 2015
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This study presents a new parameterization of the vegetation dynamics module in the process-based ecosystem model ORCHIDEE for mid- to high-latitude regions, showing significant improvements in the modeled distribution of tree functional types north of 40°N. A new set of metrics is proposed to quantify the performance of ORCHIDEE, which integrates uncertainties in the observational data sets.
M. J. McGrath, S. Luyssaert, P. Meyfroidt, J. O. Kaplan, M. Bürgi, Y. Chen, K. Erb, U. Gimmi, D. McInerney, K. Naudts, J. Otto, F. Pasztor, J. Ryder, M.-J. Schelhaas, and A. Valade
Biogeosciences, 12, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4291-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4291-2015, 2015
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Studying century-scale ecological processes and their legacy effects requires taking forest management into account. In this study we produce spatially and temporally explicit maps of European forest management from 1600 to 2010. The most important changes between 1600 and 2010 are an increase of 593 000km2 in conifers at the expense of deciduous forest, a 612 000km2 decrease in unmanaged forest, a 152 000km2 decrease in coppice management and a 818 000km2 increase in high stand management.
P. Achakulwisut, L. J. Mickley, L. T. Murray, A. P. K. Tai, J. O. Kaplan, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7977–7998, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7977-2015, 2015
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The atmosphere’s oxidative capacity determines the lifetime of many trace gases important to climate, chemistry, and human health. Yet uncertainties remain about its past variations, its controlling factors, and the radiative forcing of short-lived species it influences. To reduce these uncertainties, we must better quantify the natural emissions and chemical reaction mechanisms of organic compounds in the atmosphere, which play a role in governing the oxidative capacity.
K. Nishina, A. Ito, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, D. J. Beerling, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, R. Kahana, E. Kato, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, 2015
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Our study focused on uncertainties in terrestrial C cycling under newly developed scenarios with CMIP5. This study presents first results for examining relative uncertainties of projected terrestrial C cycling in multiple projection components. Only using our new model inter-comparison project data sets enables us to evaluate various uncertainty sources in projection periods. The information on relative uncertainties is useful for climate science and climate change impact evaluation.
U. Mishra and W. J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 12, 3993–4004, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3993-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3993-2015, 2015
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
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We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
S. Kloster, T. Brücher, V. Brovkin, and S. Wilkenskjeld
Clim. Past, 11, 781–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, 2015
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
U. Port, M. Claussen, and V. Brovkin
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-997-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-997-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. Baudena, S. C. Dekker, P. M. van Bodegom, B. Cuesta, S. I. Higgins, V. Lehsten, C. H. Reick, M. Rietkerk, S. Scheiter, Z. Yin, M. A. Zavala, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 1833–1848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1833-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1833-2015, 2015
J. R. Melton, R. K. Shrestha, and V. K. Arora
Biogeosciences, 12, 1151–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1151-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1151-2015, 2015
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Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in seasonally dry Amazon forests varies
greatly between sites with similar precipitation patterns. We ran CLASS-CTEM at two LBA Amazon sites (Tapajós 83km & Jarú Reserve) that exhibit opposite seasonal NEP cycles despite reasonably similar meteorological conditions. We find the influence of soil texture and depth, through soil moisture, on seasonal patterns of GPP and, especially, heterotrophic respiration is important for correctly simulating NEP seasonality.
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
B. D. Stocker, R. Spahni, and F. Joos
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 3089–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3089-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3089-2014, 2014
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Simulating the spatio-temporal dynamics of inundation is key to understanding the role of wetlands under past and future climate change. Here, we describe and assess the DYPTOP model that predicts the extent of inundation and the global spatial distribution of peatlands. DYPTOP makes use of high-resolution topography information and uses ecosystem water balance and peatland soil C balance criteria to simulate peatland spatial dynamics and carbon accumulation.
N. J. Bouskill, W. J. Riley, and J. Y. Tang
Biogeosciences, 11, 6969–6983, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6969-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6969-2014, 2014
Y. Wei, S. Liu, D. N. Huntzinger, A. M. Michalak, N. Viovy, W. M. Post, C. R. Schwalm, K. Schaefer, A. R. Jacobson, C. Lu, H. Tian, D. M. Ricciuto, R. B. Cook, J. Mao, and X. Shi
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2875-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2875-2014, 2014
G. Hugelius, J. Strauss, S. Zubrzycki, J. W. Harden, E. A. G. Schuur, C.-L. Ping, L. Schirrmeister, G. Grosse, G. J. Michaelson, C. D. Koven, J. A. O'Donnell, B. Elberling, U. Mishra, P. Camill, Z. Yu, J. Palmtag, and P. Kuhry
Biogeosciences, 11, 6573–6593, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, 2014
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This study provides an updated estimate of organic carbon stored in the northern permafrost region. The study includes estimates for carbon in soils (0 to 3 m depth) and deeper sediments in river deltas and the Yedoma region. We find that field data is still scarce from many regions. Total estimated carbon storage is ~1300 Pg with an uncertainty range of between 1100 and 1500 Pg. Around 800 Pg carbon is perennially frozen, equivalent to all carbon dioxide currently in the Earth's atmosphere.
C. Yue, P. Ciais, P. Cadule, K. Thonicke, S. Archibald, B. Poulter, W. M. Hao, S. Hantson, F. Mouillot, P. Friedlingstein, F. Maignan, and N. Viovy
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2747–2767, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2747-2014, 2014
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ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE model could moderately capture the decadal trend and variation of burned area during the 20th century, and the spatial and temporal patterns of contemporary vegetation fires. The model has a better performance in simulating fires for regions dominated by climate-driven fires, such as boreal forests. However, it has limited capability to reproduce the infrequent but important large fires in different ecosystems, where urgent model improvement is needed in the future.
G. Bisht and W. J. Riley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-12833-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-12833-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, P. M. Collins, and J. O. Kaplan
Clim. Past, 10, 1925–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, 2014
G. S. H. Pau, G. Bisht, and W. J. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2091–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2091-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2091-2014, 2014
J. B. Fisher, M. Sikka, W. C. Oechel, D. N. Huntzinger, J. R. Melton, C. D. Koven, A. Ahlström, M. A. Arain, I. Baker, J. M. Chen, P. Ciais, C. Davidson, M. Dietze, B. El-Masri, D. Hayes, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, P. E. Levy, M. R. Lomas, B. Poulter, D. Price, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, H. Tian, E. Tomelleri, H. Verbeeck, N. Viovy, R. Wania, N. Zeng, and C. E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 11, 4271–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, 2014
J. Y. Tang and W. J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 11, 3721–3728, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3721-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3721-2014, 2014
W. J. Riley, F. Maggi, M. Kleber, M. S. Torn, J. Y. Tang, D. Dwivedi, and N. Guerry
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1335–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1335-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1335-2014, 2014
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
W. J. Riley and C. Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2463–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2463-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2463-2014, 2014
C. Le Quéré, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, R. A. Houghton, G. Marland, R. Moriarty, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, S. C. Doney, A. Harper, I. Harris, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, S. D. Jones, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Körtzinger, C. Koven, N. Lefèvre, F. Maignan, A. Omar, T. Ono, G.-H. Park, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. Schwinger, J. Segschneider, B. D. Stocker, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, S. van Heuven, N. Viovy, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014, 2014
A. V. Eliseev, I. I. Mokhov, and A. V. Chernokulsky
Biogeosciences, 11, 3205–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3205-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3205-2014, 2014
M. Balzarolo, S. Boussetta, G. Balsamo, A. Beljaars, F. Maignan, J.-C. Calvet, S. Lafont, A. Barbu, B. Poulter, F. Chevallier, C. Szczypta, and D. Papale
Biogeosciences, 11, 2661–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2661-2014, 2014
M. Baumgartner, P. Kindler, O. Eicher, G. Floch, A. Schilt, J. Schwander, R. Spahni, E. Capron, J. Chappellaz, M. Leuenberger, H. Fischer, and T. F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 10, 903–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-903-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-903-2014, 2014
L. T. Murray, L. J. Mickley, J. O. Kaplan, E. D. Sofen, M. Pfeiffer, and B. Alexander
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3589–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, 2014
A. Loew, P. M. van Bodegom, J.-L. Widlowski, J. Otto, T. Quaife, B. Pinty, and T. Raddatz
Biogeosciences, 11, 1873–1897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1873-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1873-2014, 2014
K. Nishina, A. Ito, D. J. Beerling, P. Cadule, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, R. Kahana, E. Kato, R. Keribin, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, T. T. Rademacher, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, N. Vuichard, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 197–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014, 2014
G. Strandberg, E. Kjellström, A. Poska, S. Wagner, M.-J. Gaillard, A.-K. Trondman, A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, J. O. Kaplan, H. J. B. Birks, A. E. Bjune, R. Fyfe, T. Giesecke, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W. O. van der Knaap, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, M. Lata\l owa, L. Marquer, F. Mazier, A. B. Nielsen, B. Smith, H. Seppä, and S. Sugita
Clim. Past, 10, 661–680, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014, 2014
B. Ringeval, S. Houweling, P. M. van Bodegom, R. Spahni, R. van Beek, F. Joos, and T. Röckmann
Biogeosciences, 11, 1519–1558, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1519-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1519-2014, 2014
B. S. Naz, C. D. Frans, G. K. C. Clarke, P. Burns, and D. P. Lettenmaier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 787–802, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-787-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-787-2014, 2014
J. R. Melton and V. K. Arora
Biogeosciences, 11, 1021–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1021-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1021-2014, 2014
I. N. Williams, W. J. Riley, M. S. Torn, S. C. Biraud, and M. L. Fischer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1571–1585, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1571-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1571-2014, 2014
F. S. E. Vamborg, V. Brovkin, and M. Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 89–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-89-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-89-2014, 2014
C. R. Schwalm, D. N. Huntinzger, R. B. Cook, Y. Wei, I. T. Baker, R. P. Neilson, B. Poulter, P. Caldwell, G. Sun, H. Q. Tian, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1801-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
O. J. Squire, A. T. Archibald, N. L. Abraham, D. J. Beerling, C. N. Hewitt, J. Lathière, R. C. Pike, P. J. Telford, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1011–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1011-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1011-2014, 2014
J. Quirk, J. R. Leake, S. A. Banwart, L. L. Taylor, and D. J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 11, 321–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-321-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-321-2014, 2014
P. O. Hopcroft, P. J. Valdes, R. Wania, and D. J. Beerling
Clim. Past, 10, 137–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-137-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-137-2014, 2014
G. Hugelius, J. G. Bockheim, P. Camill, B. Elberling, G. Grosse, J. W. Harden, K. Johnson, T. Jorgenson, C. D. Koven, P. Kuhry, G. Michaelson, U. Mishra, J. Palmtag, C.-L. Ping, J. O'Donnell, L. Schirrmeister, E. A. G. Schuur, Y. Sheng, L. C. Smith, J. Strauss, and Z. Yu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 393–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-393-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-393-2013, 2013
D. N. Huntzinger, C. Schwalm, A. M. Michalak, K. Schaefer, A. W. King, Y. Wei, A. Jacobson, S. Liu, R. B. Cook, W. M. Post, G. Berthier, D. Hayes, M. Huang, A. Ito, H. Lei, C. Lu, J. Mao, C. H. Peng, S. Peng, B. Poulter, D. Riccuito, X. Shi, H. Tian, W. Wang, N. Zeng, F. Zhao, and Q. Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2121–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2121-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2121-2013, 2013
H. Tian, G. Chen, C. Lu, X. Xu, W. Ren, K. Banger, B. Zhang, B. Tao, S. Pan, M. Liu, and C. Zhang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-19811-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-19811-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
J. Y. Tang and W. J. Riley
Biogeosciences, 10, 8329–8351, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8329-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8329-2013, 2013
C. Yue, P. Ciais, S. Luyssaert, P. Cadule, J. Harden, J. Randerson, V. Bellassen, T. Wang, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, and N. Viovy
Biogeosciences, 10, 8233–8252, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8233-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8233-2013, 2013
I. Pison, B. Ringeval, P. Bousquet, C. Prigent, and F. Papa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11609–11623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11609-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11609-2013, 2013
T. Hoffmann, S. M. Mudd, K. van Oost, G. Verstraeten, G. Erkens, A. Lang, H. Middelkoop, J. Boyle, J. O. Kaplan, J. Willenbring, and R. Aalto
Earth Surf. Dynam., 1, 45–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-45-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-45-2013, 2013
P. Dass, C. Müller, V. Brovkin, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 409–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-409-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-409-2013, 2013
C. Ottlé, J. Lescure, F. Maignan, B. Poulter, T. Wang, and N. Delbart
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 331–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-331-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-331-2013, 2013
C. D. Koven, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, J. Y. Tang, M. S. Torn, W. D. Collins, G. B. Bonan, D. M. Lawrence, and S. C. Swenson
Biogeosciences, 10, 7109–7131, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7109-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7109-2013, 2013
P. C. Stoy, M. C. Dietze, A. D. Richardson, R. Vargas, A. G. Barr, R. S. Anderson, M. A. Arain, I. T. Baker, T. A. Black, J. M. Chen, R. B. Cook, C. M. Gough, R. F. Grant, D. Y. Hollinger, R. C. Izaurralde, C. J. Kucharik, P. Lafleur, B. E. Law, S. Liu, E. Lokupitiya, Y. Luo, J. W. Munger, C. Peng, B. Poulter, D. T. Price, D. M. Ricciuto, W. J. Riley, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, C. R. Schwalm, H. Tian, H. Verbeeck, and E. Weng
Biogeosciences, 10, 6893–6909, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6893-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6893-2013, 2013
T. J. Bohn and D. P. Lettenmaier
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-16329-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-16329-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn
A. V. Eliseev, D. Coumou, A. V. Chernokulsky, V. Petoukhov, and S. Petri
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1745–1765, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1745-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1745-2013, 2013
T. J. Bohn, E. Podest, R. Schroeder, N. Pinto, K. C. McDonald, M. Glagolev, I. Filippov, S. Maksyutov, M. Heimann, X. Chen, and D. P. Lettenmaier
Biogeosciences, 10, 6559–6576, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6559-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6559-2013, 2013
M. Scherstjanoi, J. O. Kaplan, E. Thürig, and H. Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1517–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1517-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1517-2013, 2013
V. Beck, C. Gerbig, T. Koch, M. M. Bela, K. M. Longo, S. R. Freitas, J. O. Kaplan, C. Prigent, P. Bergamaschi, and M. Heimann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7961–7982, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7961-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7961-2013, 2013
L. M. Verheijen, V. Brovkin, R. Aerts, G. Bönisch, J. H. C. Cornelissen, J. Kattge, P. B. Reich, I. J. Wright, and P. M. van Bodegom
Biogeosciences, 10, 5497–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5497-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5497-2013, 2013
J. H. Shim, H. H. Powers, C. W. Meyer, A. Knohl, T. E. Dawson, W. J. Riley, W. T. Pockman, and N. McDowell
Biogeosciences, 10, 4937–4956, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4937-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4937-2013, 2013
S. Shukla, J. Sheffield, E. F. Wood, and D. P. Lettenmaier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2781–2796, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2781-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2781-2013, 2013
R. Spahni, F. Joos, B. D. Stocker, M. Steinacher, and Z. C. Yu
Clim. Past, 9, 1287–1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1287-2013, 2013
M. Claussen, K. Selent, V. Brovkin, T. Raddatz, and V. Gayler
Biogeosciences, 10, 3593–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3593-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3593-2013, 2013
M. Pfeiffer, A. Spessa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 643–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-643-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
C. Le Quéré, R. J. Andres, T. Boden, T. Conway, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, G. Marland, G. P. Peters, G. R. van der Werf, A. Ahlström, R. M. Andrew, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, S. C. Doney, C. Enright, P. Friedlingstein, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, C. Jourdain, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, J. Schwinger, S. Sitch, B. D. Stocker, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 165–185, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013, 2013
E. A. Rosenberg, E. A. Clark, A. C. Steinemann, and D. P. Lettenmaier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1475–1491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1475-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1475-2013, 2013
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
S. Zürcher, R. Spahni, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, and H. Fischer
Biogeosciences, 10, 1963–1981, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1963-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1963-2013, 2013
S. C. Biraud, M. S. Torn, J. R. Smith, C. Sweeney, W. J. Riley, and P. P. Tans
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 751–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-751-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-751-2013, 2013
W. J. Riley
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 345–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-345-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-345-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
J. Y. Tang and W. J. Riley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-873-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-873-2013, 2013
D. J. Charman, D. W. Beilman, M. Blaauw, R. K. Booth, S. Brewer, F. M. Chambers, J. A. Christen, A. Gallego-Sala, S. P. Harrison, P. D. M. Hughes, S. T. Jackson, A. Korhola, D. Mauquoy, F. J. G. Mitchell, I. C. Prentice, M. van der Linden, F. De Vleeschouwer, Z. C. Yu, J. Alm, I. E. Bauer, Y. M. C. Corish, M. Garneau, V. Hohl, Y. Huang, E. Karofeld, G. Le Roux, J. Loisel, R. Moschen, J. E. Nichols, T. M. Nieminen, G. M. MacDonald, N. R. Phadtare, N. Rausch, Ü. Sillasoo, G. T. Swindles, E.-S. Tuittila, L. Ukonmaanaho, M. Väliranta, S. van Bellen, B. van Geel, D. H. Vitt, and Y. Zhao
Biogeosciences, 10, 929–944, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-929-2013, 2013
J. Segschneider, A. Beitsch, C. Timmreck, V. Brovkin, T. Ilyina, J. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, K. D. Six, and D. Zanchettin
Biogeosciences, 10, 669–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, 2013
J. Y. Tang, W. J. Riley, C. D. Koven, and Z. M. Subin
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 127–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-127-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-127-2013, 2013
B. Ringeval, P. O. Hopcroft, P. J. Valdes, P. Ciais, G. Ramstein, A. J. Dolman, and M. Kageyama
Clim. Past, 9, 149–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-149-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-149-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Biogeochemistry: Greenhouse Gases
Timescale dependence of airborne fraction and underlying climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks for weak perturbations in CMIP5 models
Technical note: Preventing CO2 overestimation from mercuric or copper(II) chloride preservation of dissolved greenhouse gases in freshwater samples
Exploring temporal and spatial variation of nitrous oxide flux using several years of peatland forest automatic chamber data
Diurnal versus spatial variability of greenhouse gas emissions from an anthropogenically modified lowland river in Germany
Regional assessment and uncertainty analysis of carbon and nitrogen balances at cropland scale using the ecosystem model LandscapeDNDC
Resolving heterogeneous fluxes from tundra halves the growing season carbon budget
Lawns and meadows in urban green space – a comparison from perspectives of greenhouse gases, drought resilience and plant functional types
Large contribution of soil N2O emission to the global warming potential of a large-scale oil palm plantation despite changing from conventional to reduced management practices
Identifying landscape hot and cold spots of soil greenhouse gas fluxes by combining field measurements and remote sensing data
A case study on topsoil removal and rewetting for paludiculture: effect on biogeochemistry and greenhouse gas emissions from Typha latifolia, Typha angustifolia and Azolla filiculoides
Enhanced Southern Ocean CO2 outgassing as a result of stronger and poleward shifted southern hemispheric westerlies
Modelling CO2 and N2O emissions from soils in silvopastoral systems of the West-African Sahelian band
Spatial and temporal variability of methane emissions and environmental conditions in a hyper-eutrophic fishpond
Optical and radar Earth observation data for upscaling methane emissions linked to permafrost degradation in sub-Arctic peatlands in northern Sweden
Assessing improvements in global ocean pCO2 machine learning reconstructions with Southern Ocean autonomous sampling
Herbivore–shrub interactions influence ecosystem respiration and biogenic volatile organic compound composition in the subarctic
Methane emissions due to reservoir flushing: a significant emission pathway?
Carbon dioxide and methane fluxes from mounds of African fungus-growing termites
Diel and seasonal methane dynamics in the shallow and turbulent Wadden Sea
Technical note: Skirt chamber – an open dynamic method for the rapid and minimally intrusive measurement of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands
Seasonal variability of nitrous oxide concentrations and emissions in a temperate estuary
Reviews and syntheses: Recent advances in microwave remote sensing in support of terrestrial carbon cycle science in Arctic–boreal regions
Simulated methane emissions from Arctic ponds are highly sensitive to warming
Water-table-driven greenhouse gas emission estimates guide peatland restoration at national scale
Relationships between greenhouse gas production and landscape position during short-term permafrost thaw under anaerobic conditions in the Lena Delta
Carbon emissions and radiative forcings from tundra wildfires in the Yukon–Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska
Carbon monoxide (CO) cycling in the Fram Strait, Arctic Ocean
Post-flooding disturbance recovery promotes carbon capture in riparian zones
Meteorological responses of carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of a subarctic landscape
Carbon emission and export from the Ket River, western Siberia
Evaluation of wetland CH4 in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model using satellite observations
Greenhouse gas fluxes in mangrove forest soil in an Amazon estuary
Temporal patterns and drivers of CO2 emission from dry sediments in a groyne field of a large river
Effects of water table level and nitrogen deposition on methane and nitrous oxide emissions in an alpine peatland
Highest methane concentrations in an Arctic river linked to local terrestrial inputs
Seasonal study of the small-scale variability in dissolved methane in the western Kiel Bight (Baltic Sea) during the European heatwave in 2018
Trace gas fluxes from tidal salt marsh soils: implications for carbon–sulfur biogeochemistry
Spatial and temporal variation in δ13C values of methane emitted from a hemiboreal mire: methanogenesis, methanotrophy, and hysteresis
Intercomparison of methods to estimate gross primary production based on CO2 and COS flux measurements
Lateral carbon export has low impact on the net ecosystem carbon balance of a polygonal tundra catchment
The effect of static chamber base on N2O flux in drip irrigation
Controls on autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in an ombrotrophic bog
Episodic N2O emissions following tillage of a legume–grass cover crop mixture
Variation in CO2 and CH4 fluxes among land cover types in heterogeneous Arctic tundra in northeastern Siberia
Response of vegetation and carbon fluxes to brown lemming herbivory in northern Alaska
Sources of nitrous oxide and the fate of mineral nitrogen in subarctic permafrost peat soils
Data-based estimates of interannual sea–air CO2 flux variations 1957–2020 and their relation to environmental drivers
Evaluating alternative ebullition models for predicting peatland methane emission and its pathways via data–model fusion
Excess soil moisture and fresh carbon input are prerequisites for methane production in podzolic soil
Low biodegradability of particulate organic carbon mobilized from thaw slumps on the Peel Plateau, NT, and possible chemosynthesis and sorption effects
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Biogeosciences, 21, 1923–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024, 2024
Short summary
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We study the timescale dependence of airborne fraction and underlying feedbacks by a theory of the climate–carbon system. Using simulations we show the predictive power of this theory and find that (1) this fraction generally decreases for increasing timescales and (2) at all timescales the total feedback is negative and the model spread in a single feedback causes the spread in the airborne fraction. Our study indicates that those are properties of the system, independently of the scenario.
François Clayer, Jan Erik Thrane, Kuria Ndungu, Andrew King, Peter Dörsch, and Thomas Rohrlack
Biogeosciences, 21, 1903–1921, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1903-2024, 2024
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Determination of dissolved greenhouse gas (GHG) in freshwater allows us to estimate GHG fluxes. Mercuric chloride (HgCl2) is used to preserve water samples prior to GHG analysis despite its environmental and health impacts and interferences with water chemistry in freshwater. Here, we tested the effects of HgCl2, two substitutes and storage time on GHG in water from two boreal lakes. Preservation with HgCl2 caused overestimation of CO2 concentration with consequences for GHG flux estimation.
Helena Rautakoski, Mika Korkiakoski, Jarmo Mäkelä, Markku Koskinen, Kari Minkkinen, Mika Aurela, Paavo Ojanen, and Annalea Lohila
Biogeosciences, 21, 1867–1886, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1867-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1867-2024, 2024
Short summary
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Current and future nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are difficult to estimate due to their high variability in space and time. Several years of N2O fluxes from drained boreal peatland forest indicate high importance of summer precipitation, winter temperature, and snow conditions in controlling annual N2O emissions. The results indicate increasing year-to-year variation in N2O emissions in changing climate with more extreme seasonal weather conditions.
Matthias Koschorreck, Norbert Kamjunke, Uta Koedel, Michael Rode, Claudia Schuetze, and Ingeborg Bussmann
Biogeosciences, 21, 1613–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1613-2024, 2024
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We measured the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from different sites at the river Elbe in Germany over 3 days to find out what is more important for quantification: small-scale spatial variability or diurnal temporal variability. We found that CO2 emissions were very different between day and night, while CH4 emissions were more different between sites. Dried out river sediments contributed to CO2 emissions, while the side areas of the river were important CH4 sources.
Odysseas Sifounakis, Edwin Haas, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, and Maria P. Papadopoulou
Biogeosciences, 21, 1563–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1563-2024, 2024
Short summary
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We performed a full assessment of the carbon and nitrogen cycles of a cropland ecosystem. An uncertainty analysis and quantification of all carbon and nitrogen fluxes were deployed. The inventory simulations include greenhouse gas emissions of N2O, NH3 volatilization and NO3 leaching from arable land cultivation in Greece. The inventory also reports changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen stocks in arable soils.
Sarah M. Ludwig, Luke Schiferl, Jacqueline Hung, Susan M. Natali, and Roisin Commane
Biogeosciences, 21, 1301–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1301-2024, 2024
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Landscapes are often assumed to be homogeneous when using eddy covariance fluxes, which can lead to biases when calculating carbon budgets. In this study we report eddy covariance carbon fluxes from heterogeneous tundra. We used the footprints of each flux observation to unmix the fluxes coming from components of the landscape. We identified and quantified hot spots of carbon emissions in the landscape. Accurately scaling with landscape heterogeneity yielded half as much regional carbon uptake.
Justine Trémeau, Beñat Olascoaga, Leif Backman, Esko Karvinen, Henriikka Vekuri, and Liisa Kulmala
Biogeosciences, 21, 949–972, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-949-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-949-2024, 2024
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We studied urban lawns and meadows in the Helsinki metropolitan area, Finland. We found that meadows are more resistant to drought events but that they do not increase carbon sequestration compared with lawns. Moreover, the transformation from lawns to meadows did not demonstrate any negative climate effects in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. Even though social and economic aspects also steer urban development, these results can guide planning to consider carbon-smart options.
Guantao Chen, Edzo Veldkamp, Muhammad Damris, Bambang Irawan, Aiyen Tjoa, and Marife D. Corre
Biogeosciences, 21, 513–529, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-513-2024, 2024
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We established an oil palm management experiment in a large-scale oil palm plantation in Jambi, Indonesia. We recorded oil palm fruit yield and measured soil CO2, N2O, and CH4 fluxes. After 4 years of treatment, compared with conventional fertilization with herbicide weeding, reduced fertilization with mechanical weeding did not reduce yield and soil greenhouse gas emissions, which highlights the legacy effects of over a decade of conventional management prior to the start of the experiment.
Elizabeth Gachibu Wangari, Ricky Mwangada Mwanake, Tobias Houska, David Kraus, Gretchen Maria Gettel, Ralf Kiese, Lutz Breuer, and Klaus Butterbach-Bahl
Biogeosciences, 20, 5029–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-5029-2023, 2023
Short summary
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Agricultural landscapes act as sinks or sources of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4, or N2O. Various physicochemical and biological processes control the fluxes of these GHGs between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Therefore, fluxes depend on environmental conditions such as soil moisture, soil temperature, or soil parameters, which result in large spatial and temporal variations of GHG fluxes. Here, we describe an example of how this variation may be studied and analyzed.
Merit van den Berg, Thomas Gremmen, Renske J. E. Vroom, Jacobus van Huissteden, Jim Boonman, Corine J. A. van Huissteden, Ype van der Velde, Alfons J. P. Smolders, and Bas P. van de Riet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2826, 2023
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Drained peatlands emit 3 % of the global greenhouse gas emission. Paludiculture is a way to reduce CO2 emissions while at the same time generating an income for landowners. The side effect is the potentially high methane emission. We found very high methane emission for broadleaf cattail, compared to narrowleaf cattail and water fern. The rewetting was, however, effective to stop CO2 emission for all species. The highest potential to reduce greenhouse gas emission had narrowleaf cattail.
Laurie C. Menviel, Paul Spence, Andrew E. Kiss, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Hakase Hayashida, Matthew H. England, and Darryn Waugh
Biogeosciences, 20, 4413–4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, 2023
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As the ocean absorbs 25% of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on the flux of carbon between the ocean and the atmosphere. Here, we use a very high-resolution ocean, sea-ice, carbon cycle model to show that the capability of the Southern Ocean to uptake CO2 has decreased over the last 40 years due to a strengthening and poleward shift of the southern hemispheric westerlies. This trend is expected to continue over the coming century.
Yélognissè Agbohessou, Claire Delon, Manuela Grippa, Eric Mougin, Daouda Ngom, Espoir Koudjo Gaglo, Ousmane Ndiaye, Paulo Salgado, and Olivier Roupsard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2452, 2023
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Emissions of greenhouse gases in the Sahel are not well represented, because considered as weak compared to the rest of the world. However, natural areas in the Sahel emit carbon dioxide and nitrous oxides which need to be assessed because of extended surfaces. We propose an assessment of such emissions in Sahelian silvopastoral systems, and how they are influenced by environmental characteristics. These results are essential to inform on climate change strategies in the region.
Petr Znachor, Jiří Nedoma, Vojtech Kolar, and Anna Matoušů
Biogeosciences, 20, 4273–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4273-2023, 2023
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We conducted intensive spatial sampling of the hypertrophic fishpond to better understand the spatial dynamics of methane fluxes and environmental heterogeneity in fishponds. The diffusive fluxes of methane accounted for only a minor fraction of the total fluxes and both varied pronouncedly within the pond and over the studied summer season. This could be explained only by the water depth. Wind substantially affected temperature, oxygen and chlorophyll a distribution in the pond.
Sofie Sjögersten, Martha Ledger, Matthias Siewert, Betsabé de la Barreda-Bautista, Andrew Sowter, David Gee, Giles Foody, and Doreen S. Boyd
Biogeosciences, 20, 4221–4239, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4221-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4221-2023, 2023
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Permafrost thaw in Arctic regions is increasing methane emissions, but quantification is difficult given the large and remote areas impacted. We show that UAV data together with satellite data can be used to extrapolate emissions across the wider landscape as well as detect areas at risk of higher emissions. A transition of currently degrading areas to fen type vegetation can increase emission by several orders of magnitude, highlighting the importance of quantifying areas at risk.
Thea Hatlen Heimdal, Galen A. McKinley, Adrienne J. Sutton, Amanda R. Fay, and Lucas Gloege
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-160, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
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Measurements of ocean carbon are limited in time and space. Machine learning algorithms are therefore used to reconstruct ocean carbon where observations do not exist. Improving these reconstructions is important in order to accurately estimate how much carbon the ocean absorbs from the atmosphere. In this study, we find that that a small addition of observations from the Southern Ocean, obtained by autonomous sampling platforms, could significantly improve the reconstructions.
Cole G. Brachmann, Tage Vowles, Riikka Rinnan, Mats P. Björkman, Anna Ekberg, and Robert G. Björk
Biogeosciences, 20, 4069–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4069-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4069-2023, 2023
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Herbivores change plant communities through grazing, altering the amount of CO2 and plant-specific chemicals (termed VOCs) emitted. We tested this effect by excluding herbivores and studying the CO2 and VOC emissions. Herbivores reduced CO2 emissions from a meadow community and altered VOC composition; however, community type had the strongest effect on the amount of CO2 and VOCs released. Herbivores can mediate greenhouse gas emissions, but the effect is marginal and community dependent.
Ole Lessmann, Jorge Encinas Fernández, Karla Martínez-Cruz, and Frank Peeters
Biogeosciences, 20, 4057–4068, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4057-2023, 2023
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Based on a large dataset of seasonally resolved methane (CH4) pore water concentrations in a reservoir's sediment, we assess the significance of CH4 emissions due to reservoir flushing. In the studied reservoir, CH4 emissions caused by one flushing operation can represent 7 %–14 % of the annual CH4 emissions and depend on the timing of the flushing operation. In reservoirs with high sediment loadings, regular flushing may substantially contribute to the overall CH4 emissions.
Matti Räsänen, Risto Vesala, Petri Rönnholm, Laura Arppe, Petra Manninen, Markus Jylhä, Jouko Rikkinen, Petri Pellikka, and Janne Rinne
Biogeosciences, 20, 4029–4042, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4029-2023, 2023
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Fungus-growing termites recycle large parts of dead plant material in African savannas and are significant sources of greenhouse gases. We measured CO2 and CH4 fluxes from their mounds and surrounding soils in open and closed habitats. The fluxes scale with mound volume. The results show that emissions from mounds of fungus-growing termites are more stable than those from other termites. The soil fluxes around the mound are affected by the termite colonies at up to 2 m distance from the mound.
Tim René de Groot, Anne Margriet Mol, Katherine Mesdag, Pierre Ramond, Rachel Ndhlovu, Julia Catherine Engelmann, Thomas Röckmann, and Helge Niemann
Biogeosciences, 20, 3857–3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3857-2023, 2023
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This study investigates methane dynamics in the Wadden Sea. Our measurements revealed distinct variations triggered by seasonality and tidal forcing. The methane budget was higher in warmer seasons but surprisingly high in colder seasons. Methane dynamics were amplified during low tides, flushing the majority of methane into the North Sea or releasing it to the atmosphere. Methanotrophic activity was also elevated during low tide but mitigated only a small fraction of the methane efflux.
Frederic Thalasso, Brenda Riquelme, Andrés Gómez, Roy Mackenzie, Francisco Javier Aguirre, Jorge Hoyos-Santillan, Ricardo Rozzi, and Armando Sepulveda-Jauregui
Biogeosciences, 20, 3737–3749, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3737-2023, 2023
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A robust skirt-chamber design to capture and quantify greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands is presented. Compared to standard methods, this design improves the spatial resolution of field studies in remote locations while minimizing intrusion.
Gesa Schulz, Tina Sanders, Yoana G. Voynova, Hermann W. Bange, and Kirstin Dähnke
Biogeosciences, 20, 3229–3247, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3229-2023, 2023
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Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas. However, N2O emissions from estuaries underlie significant uncertainties due to limited data availability and high spatiotemporal variability. We found the Elbe Estuary (Germany) to be a year-round source of N2O, with the highest emissions in winter along with high nitrogen loads. However, in spring and summer, N2O emissions did not decrease alongside lower nitrogen loads because organic matter fueled in situ N2O production along the estuary.
Alex Mavrovic, Oliver Sonnentag, Juha Lemmetyinen, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Christophe Kinnard, and Alexandre Roy
Biogeosciences, 20, 2941–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2941-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2941-2023, 2023
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This review supports the integration of microwave spaceborne information into carbon cycle science for Arctic–boreal regions. The microwave data record spans multiple decades with frequent global observations of soil moisture and temperature, surface freeze–thaw cycles, vegetation water storage, snowpack properties, and land cover. This record holds substantial unexploited potential to better understand carbon cycle processes.
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
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We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
Julian Koch, Lars Elsgaard, Mogens H. Greve, Steen Gyldenkærne, Cecilie Hermansen, Gregor Levin, Shubiao Wu, and Simon Stisen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2387–2403, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2387-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2387-2023, 2023
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Utilizing peatlands for agriculture leads to large emissions of greenhouse gases worldwide. The emissions are triggered by lowering the water table, which is a necessary step in order to make peatlands arable. Many countries aim at reducing their emissions by restoring peatlands, which can be achieved by stopping agricultural activities and thereby raising the water table. We estimate a total emission of 2.6 Mt CO2-eq for organic-rich peatlands in Denmark and a potential reduction of 77 %.
Mélissa Laurent, Matthias Fuchs, Tanja Herbst, Alexandra Runge, Susanne Liebner, and Claire C. Treat
Biogeosciences, 20, 2049–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2049-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2049-2023, 2023
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In this study we investigated the effect of different parameters (temperature, landscape position) on the production of greenhouse gases during a 1-year permafrost thaw experiment. For very similar carbon and nitrogen contents, our results show a strong heterogeneity in CH4 production, as well as in microbial abundance. According to our study, these differences are mainly due to the landscape position and the hydrological conditions established as a result of the topography.
Michael Moubarak, Seeta Sistla, Stefano Potter, Susan M. Natali, and Brendan M. Rogers
Biogeosciences, 20, 1537–1557, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1537-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1537-2023, 2023
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Tundra wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity with climate change. We show using a combination of field measurements and computational modeling that tundra wildfires result in a positive feedback to climate change by emitting significant amounts of long-lived greenhouse gasses. With these effects, attention to tundra fires is necessary for mitigating climate change.
Hanna I. Campen, Damian L. Arévalo-Martínez, and Hermann W. Bange
Biogeosciences, 20, 1371–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1371-2023, 2023
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Carbon monoxide (CO) is a climate-relevant trace gas emitted from the ocean. However, oceanic CO cycling is understudied. Results from incubation experiments conducted in the Fram Strait (Arctic Ocean) indicated that (i) pH did not affect CO cycling and (ii) enhanced CO production and consumption were positively correlated with coloured dissolved organic matter and nitrate concentrations. This suggests microbial CO uptake to be the driving factor for CO cycling in the Arctic Ocean.
Yihong Zhu, Ruihua Liu, Huai Zhang, Shaoda Liu, Zhengfeng Zhang, Fei-Hai Yu, and Timothy G. Gregoire
Biogeosciences, 20, 1357–1370, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1357-2023, 2023
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With global warming, the risk of flooding is rising, but the response of the carbon cycle of aquatic and associated riparian systems
to flooding is still unclear. Based on the data collected in the Lijiang, we found that flooding would lead to significant carbon emissions of fluvial areas and riparian areas during flooding, but carbon capture may happen after flooding. In the riparian areas, the surviving vegetation, especially clonal plants, played a vital role in this transformation.
Lauri Heiskanen, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, Henriikka Vekuri, Aleksi Räsänen, Tarmo Virtanen, Sari Juutinen, Annalea Lohila, Juha Mikola, and Mika Aurela
Biogeosciences, 20, 545–572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-545-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-545-2023, 2023
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We measured and modelled the CO2 and CH4 fluxes of the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of the subarctic landscape for 2 years. The landscape was an annual CO2 sink and a CH4 source. The forest had the largest contribution to the landscape-level CO2 sink and the peatland to the CH4 emissions. The lakes released 24 % of the annual net C uptake of the landscape back to the atmosphere. The C fluxes were affected most by the rainy peak growing season of 2017 and the drought event in July 2018.
Artem G. Lim, Ivan V. Krickov, Sergey N. Vorobyev, Mikhail A. Korets, Sergey Kopysov, Liudmila S. Shirokova, Jan Karlsson, and Oleg S. Pokrovsky
Biogeosciences, 19, 5859–5877, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5859-2022, 2022
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In order to quantify C transport and emission and main environmental factors controlling the C cycle in Siberian rivers, we investigated the largest tributary of the Ob River, the Ket River basin, by measuring spatial and seasonal variations in carbon CO2 and CH4 concentrations and emissions together with hydrochemical analyses. The obtained results are useful for large-scale modeling of C emission and export fluxes from permafrost-free boreal rivers of an underrepresented region of the world.
Robert J. Parker, Chris Wilson, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Toby R. Marthews, A. Anthony Bloom, Mark F. Lunt, Nicola Gedney, Simon J. Dadson, Joe McNorton, Neil Humpage, Hartmut Boesch, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Paul I. Palmer, and Dai Yamazaki
Biogeosciences, 19, 5779–5805, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5779-2022, 2022
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Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane, one of the most important climate gases. The JULES land surface model simulates these emissions. We use satellite data to evaluate how well JULES reproduces the methane seasonal cycle over different tropical wetlands. It performs well for most regions; however, it struggles for some African wetlands influenced heavily by river flooding. We explain the reasons for these deficiencies and highlight how future development will improve these areas.
Saúl Edgardo Martínez Castellón, José Henrique Cattanio, José Francisco Berrêdo, Marcelo Rollnic, Maria de Lourdes Ruivo, and Carlos Noriega
Biogeosciences, 19, 5483–5497, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5483-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5483-2022, 2022
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We seek to understand the influence of climatic seasonality and microtopography on CO2 and CH4 fluxes in an Amazonian mangrove. Topography and seasonality had a contrasting influence when comparing the two gas fluxes: CO2 fluxes were greater in high topography in the dry period, and CH4 fluxes were greater in the rainy season in low topography. Only CO2 fluxes were correlated with soil organic matter, the proportion of carbon and nitrogen, and redox potential.
Matthias Koschorreck, Klaus Holger Knorr, and Lelaina Teichert
Biogeosciences, 19, 5221–5236, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5221-2022, 2022
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At low water levels, parts of the bottom of rivers fall dry. These beaches or mudflats emit the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. We found that those emissions are caused by microbial reactions in the sediment and that they change with time. Emissions were influenced by many factors like temperature, water level, rain, plants, and light.
Wantong Zhang, Zhengyi Hu, Joachim Audet, Thomas A. Davidson, Enze Kang, Xiaoming Kang, Yong Li, Xiaodong Zhang, and Jinzhi Wang
Biogeosciences, 19, 5187–5197, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5187-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5187-2022, 2022
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This work focused on the CH4 and N2O emissions from alpine peatlands in response to the interactive effects of altered water table levels and increased nitrogen deposition. Across the 2-year mesocosm experiment, nitrogen deposition showed nonlinear effects on CH4 emissions and linear effects on N2O emissions, and these N effects were associated with the water table levels. Our results imply the future scenario of strengthened CH4 and N2O emissions from an alpine peatland.
Karel Castro-Morales, Anna Canning, Sophie Arzberger, Will A. Overholt, Kirsten Küsel, Olaf Kolle, Mathias Göckede, Nikita Zimov, and Arne Körtzinger
Biogeosciences, 19, 5059–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5059-2022, 2022
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Permafrost thaw releases methane that can be emitted into the atmosphere or transported by Arctic rivers. Methane measurements are lacking in large Arctic river regions. In the Kolyma River (northeast Siberia), we measured dissolved methane to map its distribution with great spatial detail. The river’s edge and river junctions had the highest methane concentrations compared to other river areas. Microbial communities in the river showed that the river’s methane likely is from the adjacent land.
Sonja Gindorf, Hermann W. Bange, Dennis Booge, and Annette Kock
Biogeosciences, 19, 4993–5006, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4993-2022, 2022
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Methane is a climate-relevant greenhouse gas which is emitted to the atmosphere from coastal areas such as the Baltic Sea. We measured the methane concentration in the water column of the western Kiel Bight. Methane concentrations were higher in September than in June. We found no relationship between the 2018 European heatwave and methane concentrations. Our results show that the methane distribution in the water column is strongly affected by temporal and spatial variabilities.
Margaret Capooci and Rodrigo Vargas
Biogeosciences, 19, 4655–4670, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4655-2022, 2022
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Tidal salt marsh soil emits greenhouse gases, as well as sulfur-based gases, which play roles in global climate but are not well studied as they are difficult to measure. Traditional methods of measuring these gases worked relatively well for carbon dioxide, but less so for methane, nitrous oxide, carbon disulfide, and dimethylsulfide. High variability of trace gases complicates the ability to accurately calculate gas budgets and new approaches are needed for monitoring protocols.
Janne Rinne, Patryk Łakomiec, Patrik Vestin, Joel D. White, Per Weslien, Julia Kelly, Natascha Kljun, Lena Ström, and Leif Klemedtsson
Biogeosciences, 19, 4331–4349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4331-2022, 2022
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The study uses the stable isotope 13C of carbon in methane to investigate the origins of spatial and temporal variation in methane emitted by a temperate wetland ecosystem. The results indicate that methane production is more important for spatial variation than methane consumption by micro-organisms. Temporal variation on a seasonal timescale is most likely affected by more than one driver simultaneously.
Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Roderick Dewar, Gianluca Tramontana, Aleksanteri Mauranen, Pasi Kolari, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Dario Papale, Timo Vesala, and Ivan Mammarella
Biogeosciences, 19, 4067–4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4067-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4067-2022, 2022
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Four different methods for quantifying photosynthesis (GPP) at ecosystem scale were tested, of which two are based on carbon dioxide (CO2) and two on carbonyl sulfide (COS) flux measurements. CO2-based methods are traditional partitioning, and a new method uses machine learning. We introduce a novel method for calculating GPP from COS fluxes, with potentially better applicability than the former methods. Both COS-based methods gave on average higher GPP estimates than the CO2-based estimates.
Lutz Beckebanze, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Josefine Walz, Christian Wille, David Holl, Manuel Helbig, Julia Boike, Torsten Sachs, and Lars Kutzbach
Biogeosciences, 19, 3863–3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3863-2022, 2022
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In this study, we present observations of lateral and vertical carbon fluxes from a permafrost-affected study site in the Russian Arctic. From this dataset we estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance for this study site. We show that lateral carbon export has a low impact on the net ecosystem carbon balance during the complete study period (3 months). Nevertheless, our results also show that lateral carbon export can exceed vertical carbon uptake at the beginning of the growing season.
Shahar Baram, Asher Bar-Tal, Alon Gal, Shmulik P. Friedman, and David Russo
Biogeosciences, 19, 3699–3711, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3699-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3699-2022, 2022
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Static chambers are the most common tool used to measure greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. We tested the impact of such chambers on nitrous oxide emissions in drip irrigation. Field measurements and 3-D simulations show that the chamber base drastically affects the water and nutrient distribution in the soil and hence the measured GHG fluxes. A nomogram is suggested to determine the optimal diameter of a cylindrical chamber that ensures minimal disturbance.
Tracy E. Rankin, Nigel T. Roulet, and Tim R. Moore
Biogeosciences, 19, 3285–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3285-2022, 2022
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Peatland respiration is made up of plant and peat sources. How to separate these sources is not well known as peat respiration is not straightforward and is more influenced by vegetation dynamics than previously thought. Results of plot level measurements from shrubs and sparse grasses in a woody bog show that plants' respiration response to changes in climate is related to their different root structures, implying a difference in the mechanisms by which they obtain water resources.
Alison Bressler and Jennifer Blesh
Biogeosciences, 19, 3169–3184, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3169-2022, 2022
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Our field experiment tested if a mixture of a nitrogen-fixing legume and non-legume cover crop could reduce nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions following tillage, compared to the legume grown alone. We found higher N2O following both legume treatments, compared to those without, and lower emissions from the cover crop mixture at one of the two test sites, suggesting that interactions between cover crop types and soil quality influence N2O emissions.
Sari Juutinen, Mika Aurela, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, Viktor Ivakhov, Maiju Linkosalmi, Aleksi Räsänen, Tarmo Virtanen, Juha Mikola, Johanna Nyman, Emmi Vähä, Marina Loskutova, Alexander Makshtas, and Tuomas Laurila
Biogeosciences, 19, 3151–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3151-2022, 2022
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We measured CO2 and CH4 fluxes in heterogenous Arctic tundra in eastern Siberia. We found that tundra wetlands with sedge and grass vegetation contributed disproportionately to the landscape's ecosystem CO2 uptake and CH4 emissions to the atmosphere. Moreover, we observed high CH4 consumption in dry tundra, particularly in barren areas, offsetting part of the CH4 emissions from the wetlands.
Jessica Plein, Rulon W. Clark, Kyle A. Arndt, Walter C. Oechel, Douglas Stow, and Donatella Zona
Biogeosciences, 19, 2779–2794, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2779-2022, 2022
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Tundra vegetation and the carbon balance of Arctic ecosystems can be substantially impacted by herbivory. We tested how herbivory by brown lemmings in individual enclosure plots have impacted carbon exchange of tundra ecosystems via altering carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes. Lemmings significantly decreased net CO2 uptake while not affecting CH4 emissions. There was no significant difference in the subsequent growing season due to recovery of the vegetation.
Jenie Gil, Maija E. Marushchak, Tobias Rütting, Elizabeth M. Baggs, Tibisay Pérez, Alexander Novakovskiy, Tatiana Trubnikova, Dmitry Kaverin, Pertti J. Martikainen, and Christina Biasi
Biogeosciences, 19, 2683–2698, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2683-2022, 2022
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N2O emissions from permafrost soils represent up to 11.6 % of total N2O emissions from natural soils, and their contribution to the global N2O budget will likely increase due to climate change. A better understanding of N2O production from permafrost soil is needed to evaluate the role of arctic ecosystems in the global N2O budget. By studying microbial N2O production processes in N2O hotspots in permafrost peatlands, we identified denitrification as the dominant source of N2O in these surfaces.
Christian Rödenbeck, Tim DeVries, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, and Ralph F. Keeling
Biogeosciences, 19, 2627–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2627-2022, 2022
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The ocean is an important part of the global carbon cycle, taking up about a quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by burning of fossil fuels and thus slowing down climate change. However, the CO2 uptake by the ocean is, in turn, affected by variability and trends in climate. Here we use carbon measurements in the surface ocean to quantify the response of the oceanic CO2 exchange to environmental conditions and discuss possible mechanisms underlying this response.
Shuang Ma, Lifen Jiang, Rachel M. Wilson, Jeff P. Chanton, Scott Bridgham, Shuli Niu, Colleen M. Iversen, Avni Malhotra, Jiang Jiang, Xingjie Lu, Yuanyuan Huang, Jason Keller, Xiaofeng Xu, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Paul J. Hanson, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 19, 2245–2262, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2245-2022, 2022
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The relative ratio of wetland methane (CH4) emission pathways determines how much CH4 is oxidized before leaving the soil. We found an ebullition modeling approach that has a better performance in deep layer pore water CH4 concentration. We suggest using this approach in land surface models to accurately represent CH4 emission dynamics and response to climate change. Our results also highlight that both CH4 flux and belowground concentration data are important to constrain model parameters.
Mika Korkiakoski, Tiia Määttä, Krista Peltoniemi, Timo Penttilä, and Annalea Lohila
Biogeosciences, 19, 2025–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2025-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2025-2022, 2022
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We measured CH4 fluxes and production and oxidation potentials from irrigated and non-irrigated podzolic soil in a boreal forest. CH4 sink was smaller at the irrigated site but did not cause CH4 emission, with one exception. We also showed that under laboratory conditions, not only wet conditions, but also fresh carbon, are needed to make podzolic soil into a CH4 source. Our study provides important data for improving the process models describing the upland soil CH4 dynamics.
Sarah Shakil, Suzanne E. Tank, Jorien E. Vonk, and Scott Zolkos
Biogeosciences, 19, 1871–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1871-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1871-2022, 2022
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Permafrost thaw-driven landslides in the western Arctic are increasing organic carbon delivered to headwaters of drainage networks in the western Canadian Arctic by orders of magnitude. Through a series of laboratory experiments, we show that less than 10 % of this organic carbon is likely to be mineralized to greenhouse gases during transport in these networks. Rather most of the organic carbon is likely destined for burial and sequestration for centuries to millennia.
Cited articles
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